Depending on who you believed last season, Canberra over-achieved to make the second round of the finals or should have been contenders in the top four.
Raiders coach Ricky Stuart reckoned they would have been in the upper echelon if not for an early season-ending injury to hooker Josh Hodgson and halfback Jamal Fogarty missing the first half of the year with a knee complaint.
They enter 2023 with a clean bill of health and lofty aspirations but there are still question marks over whether the Green Machine is powerful enough to be considered a genuine premiership possibility.
The Raiders will go as far as five-eighth Jack Wighton takes them – if he displays the form that took them to the 2019 Grand Final and earned him the Dally M Medal the following season, they could be in contention come the pointy end of the season.
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Whether he and Latrell Mitchell were play-wrestling or actually fighting when they were arrested on the weekend will be for the courts to decide but it is the kind of incident which could lead to a ban of a game or two based on NRL sanctions handed down in recent years.
Wighton was rubbed out for 10 weeks by the NRL and fined $30,000 for a much more serious matter after he pleaded guilty to five counts of assault and public urination after an incident outside a Canberra nightspot.
Two incidents in five years hardly makes him a serial offender but if he is unavailable for whatever reason or unable to produce peak form on a consistent basis, Canberra are destined to finish on the fringe of the top eight without being a legit title threat.
Jack Wighton of the Raiders (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Path to the trophy
Lightning doesn’t strike twice so the first thing Raiders fans should do is to forget about their memorable surge to the 2019 decider and expect it to happen again. Parramatta fans drove themselves madder than usual a decade earlier thinking Jarryd Hayne and the Eels would be able to replicate a similar purple patch.
The centre of the Canberra universe is Wighton and their spine has been built around supporting his game-busting ability.
They have an organising halfback in Jamal Fogarty who will look after the bulk of the playmaking duties then take a back seat to Wighton in the big moments.
Their fullback is a work in progress in young gun Xavier Savage but if he continues his upward trend, his attacking spark can produce plenty of points from the back.
Hooker is well covered but not necessarily well. They have three options – Zac Woolford, who cemented a starting spot midway through last season; bench specialist Tom Starling, their best offensive option and recent recruit Danny Levi, the most experienced and perhaps best all-round candidate.
(Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
One of these three will need to stand out for Canberra to rise up the ladder.
Elsewhere on the park, Stuart’s side is stacked with forward strength in the form of Joseph Tapine, Josh Papali’i, Hudson Young and Elliott Whitehead, a capable backline and a decent amount of depth in a year where it has been diluted competition wide due to the expansion into Redcliffe.
Danger signs
Canberra’s attack was average at best last season and with Levi and Knights forward Pasami Saulo their only recruits wth NRL experience, any improvement in the team’s scoring ability will have to come from within.
Last season they were eighth in points scored, eighth in tries and 11th in line breaks. If they were any more middle of the road they’d be a median strip.
Xavier Savage. (Photo by Mark Nolan/Getty Images)
And it’s not like their defence was elite – they were 11th for points conceded.
Savage, not just because of his first name, brings the X-factor. He’s quick, elusive and plays off-the-cuff. Apart from Starling, the Raiders have very few other options who can create an attacking raid out of nothing.
Not enough raid in the Raiders, who would have thought?
They are still a very big pack, perhaps not mobile enough.
Young is a dynamic edge runner, Tapine is coming off a career-best year and Corey Harawira-Naera has his moments but Canberra don’t have many members of their pack who are nimble enough to keep up with the more compact, agile forwards in the Cameron Murray/Reuben Cotter style who shone last year.
The draw
Only one match in the national capital in the first month with lengthy trips to Townsville, Redcliffe and Newcastle.
They have lucked out overall with six of the eight teams they play once are 2022 finalists – Cowboys, Panthers, Eels, Storm, Rabbitohs, Roosters – as well as the Sea Eagles and Titans.
Of the sides they play twice, Cronulla – who they beat both times last year – are the only club coming off a finals campaign.
The key three: Wighton, Tapine, Savage
Wighton is no spring chicken after turning 30 on the weekend in rather inauspicious circumstances.
If he is to cement a legacy as a Raiders legend up there with the great names of the 1990s, he needs a premiership ring.
He’s a much better player when he’s taking the line on – he hasn’t run the ball as much the past two seasons compared to his two career-best years prior. Stuart needs Fogarty feeding him in the right spots to power through gaps.
Tapine was arguably the top of the NRL props last year and caused havoc through the middle of the ruck, running for 165m per game, 40m more than his previous best effort in a season.
Savage is still learning the ins and outs of being an NRL fullback at 20 with only 22 matches under his belt but after bulking up to add a few more kilos to his frame in the off-season, can give Canberra a point of difference in attack if he can stay injury free.
Player under pressure: Josh Papalii
He was barely used at Origin time by Queensland and has been overtaken by Tapine as the club’s spearhead of the pack. Although it feels like he’s been around forever, he’s still only 30 but after his worst season for running metres per game since 2016, he needs to reassert his position as one of the NRL’s top props.
Hidden gem: Harley Smith-Shields
Young centre Harley Smith-Shields impressed with three tries in seven games late in 2021 to look like a star of the future but a torn ACL early last year wiped out an entire season.
Coach’s safety rating
He re-signed last July until the end of 2025, that will make it 12 seasons in the role if he sees out that deal. It would take a disastrous campaign this year for the Raiders to punt one of the club’s favourite sons.
Ricky Stuart (Photo by Mark Evans/Getty Images)
Premiership odds
The Raiders are a lowly ninth at $21 to win the title with PlayUp, behind all the other finals sides from last season, as well as Brisbane.
Predicted finish
On the fringe of the top eight again looks their destiny for 2023. They’re solid across the park but don’t appear to have the attacking firepower to keep pace with the best teams in the league.
Squad list
Round 1 predicted team
1 Daine Laurie
2 Charlie Staines
3 Tommy Talau
4 Brent Naden
5 David Nofoaluma
6 Adam Doueihi
7 Luke Brooks
8 Stefano Utoikamanu
9 Apisai Koroisau
10 David Klemmer
11 John Bateman
12 Isaiah Papali’i
13 Joe Ofahengaue
Interchange
14 Jake Simpkin
15 Shawn Blore
16 Alex Twal
17 Alex Seyfarth
Other squad members: Fonua Pole, Apisalome Saukuru, Brandon Tumeth, Junior Tupou, Justin Matamua, Ken Maumalo, Rua Ngatikaura, Sione Fainu, Starford To’a, Asu Kepaoa, Triston Reilly, Tukimihia Simpkins.
Season draw
| Round | Opponent | Date | Time | Venue |
| 1 | Cowboys | Saturday, March 4 | 5.30pm | QCB Stadium |
| 2 | Dolphins | Saturday, March 11 | 5.30pm | Kayo Stadium |
| 3 | Sharks | Sunday, March 19 | 6.15pm | GIO Stadium |
| 4 | Knights | Sunday, March 26 | 4.05pm | McDonald Jones Stadium |
| 5 | Panthers | Friday, March 31 | 6pm | GIO Stadium |
| 6 | Broncos | Saturday, April 8 | 7.35pm | Suncorp Stadium |
| 7 | Dragons | Sunday, April 16 | 2pm | GIO Stadium |
| 8 | Bye | |||
| 9 | Dolphins | Saturday, April 29 | 3pm | McDonalds Park, Wagga |
| 10 | Bulldogs | Friday, May 5 | 6pm | Suncorp Stadium |
| 11 | Eels | Saturday, May 13 | 7.35pm | GIO Stadium |
| 12 | Sea Eagles | Sunday, May 21 | 4.05pm | GIO Stadium |
| 13 | Rabbitohs | Saturday, May 27 | 7.35pm | Accor Stadium |
| 14 | Tigers | Friday, June 2 | 8pm | Campbelltown Sports Stadium |
| 15 | Warriors | Friday, June 9 | 6pm | GIO Stadium |
| 16 | Bye | |||
| 17 | Roosters | Sunday, June 25 | 6.15pm | Allianz Stadium |
| 18 | Titans | Saturday, July 1 | 3pm | GIO Stadium |
| 19 | Dragons | Friday, July 7 | 8pm | WIN Stadium |
| 20 | Bye | |||
| 21 | Warriors | Friday, July 21 | 6pm | Mt Smart Stadium |
| 22 | Knights | Saturday, July 29 | 3pm | GIO Stadium |
| 23 | Tigers | Sunday, August 6 | 4.05pm | GIO Stadium |
| 24 | Storm | Sunday, August 13 | 2pm | AAMI Park |
| 25 | Bulldogs | Sunday, August 20 | 4.05pm | GIO Stadium |
| 26 | Broncos | Saturday, August 26 | 7.35pm | GIO Stadium |
| 27 | Sharks | Sunday, September 3 | 4.05pm | PointsBet Stadium |
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Good stuff Taree. I'm really hoping Ricky starts with Kris and Timoko in the centres and makes Jarrod earn his spot in the reserves. If he is tearing the place down after 5 or 6 games and one of the centres gets injured or loses form then he has a case to promote him. There is no place for sentiment in the NRL given how competitive it is. We have a bit of depth in the backs with HSS, Valemei, Schiller, Hopoate, Morkos and young Asomoa waiting in the wings. But no one to cover Savage at full back apart from Rapana so I'm hoping he can remain injury free. I read somewhere that Josh Papalii is off the grog let's hope he can repeat what Joe Tapine achieved last season.
Taree Raider
Guest
Good to see your back into the comments again, Geoff. I think the Elephant in the room is Ricky? I worry that he will continue to play favourites. Past behaviour is a good indicator of future behaviour. Jarrod Croker, he may be over his injuries, but prior to that he was not up to NRL standard, he offered bugger all in attack, starved Cotric of the ball continuously & his defence was poor. He was a great player, but isn't anymore. I'm worried that Ricky will let him play enough to make 300. If he does this who misses out? We do, because theee are better options. Smith-Shields is back from the ACL & there is plenty of other suitable outside backs. Jarrod should have fell on his sword & medically retired. He would have been remembered for the very good player that he was & freed up a big chunk of wasted salary cap. Other than that, I am confident that the Raiders will go alright this year. Any team without their preferred halfback struggles. Think of the Panthers without Cleary for 10 weeks or the Sharks without Hines for that period. Papali'i will have a good year. He's just gone through a correction period. Cream always rises to the top. Go the Green Machine.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Not getting too excited The Dogs have ended most of the past five or six seasons well to show a bit of light at the end of the tunnel Unfortunately for the past five years our season has been all over by round 5 I’m definitely talking a wait and see, show me don’t tell me approach to 2023 It could be a good season but there are plenty of ifs. Who will play fullback? Has Flanagan got potential to improve? Have we got the right balance of edge v middle in the forwards?
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
The Raiders have the advantage of having played together for a number of seasons. Its really hard to know how the Dolphins will go. Could take them a number of weeks to start gelling - plus the Dolphins lack any top class players like Wighton and Tapine - they missed out on Munster - so its not hard to see a bit of daylight between the two squads.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Good to see you back Baz. I'm hoping for a good year from the Raiders of course - I think their investment in youth might begin to bear some fruit - Savage, Timoko, Kris, HSS and Schiller in the backs and some potentially very good young front rowers in Trey Mooney and Ata Mariota. And I think they might be sitting on a bit of cash with Hodgson gone along with Elliot and Sutton. Bet you are getting very excited about the Dogs chances.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
I'd like to see Nick Cotric be more direct coming out of defence instead of crabbing sideways. He really needs to show something after a pretty ordinary 2022. Not sure why Jordan Rapana is getting grief. He is the heart and soul of the team- always taking those dirty runs out of defence. He's a more clever and game aware player than he is being credit for here. He's been guilty of the odd sly shot but I think it comes from frustration. He needs to get it out of his game. Savage needs to have a breakout year as I've said earlier. I suspect Ricky kept getting in his ear to keep it simple in 2022 and not try to do the impossible. I know he's made mistakes but a lot of full backs do. Few of them are immune - even the good ones - given how much they touch the ball and have to defuse attacking plays and bombs. Jack W had a n awful time with errors when he played there. I actually think Savage could be an upgrade on Jack at FB. And while not as safe yet as CNK has a lot more attacking flair. I suspect these 3 may have a few posters eating their words by season's end.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
Spot on summary King - as identified the potential weak spots are hooker and lock Would love to see either of Coreys (Horse or CHN) given a crack at 13 and hopefully make a success of it. Woolford is safe and solid at 9 but needs to expand his game. And Starling needs to rediscover his 2021 form. He was very qiet last year. Will have to see what Danny Levi brings. Paul is correct in that ait all depends on Jack and the combination he forms with Fogarty. Savage needs to have a breakout year. With their draw and the development of their young backs I can seem them somewhere between 6th and 8th.
Conelius
Guest
Definitely top 8 with great pack of forwards really good clever little halfback. Just what Ricky needed. Easy draw.
Forty Twenty
Roar Rookie
Cotric and Rapana gave the Raiders an edge out wide a few years back as they were both dangerous , Rapana was the Raiders player who worried me the most when they played Manly , along with Wighton but they have both come down a notch or two I believe. The Raiders will need to unearth a few gems from the lower grades to challenge for a title any time soon I suspect.
Womblat
Guest
Hope you're right. The whole comp just seems to pop when the Green Machine are going well. :thumbup:
jammel
Roar Rookie
On the back 3, I'm more fine with Cotric and Rapana both (1) scoring tries - they finish very well and (2) defensively. Their weakness IMHO is making yards out of our own 40m. The key improvement there will need to be (A) yards from Savage/Cotric/Rapana and (B) assistance in particular from the 2 centres. I see the likes of Kris/HSS/Timoko as being able to help - this is a big area for improvement for Canberra this year IMO
Albo
Roar Rookie
I can't agree with you on your back three ! Savage shows some ability but is full of errors to date. Cotric has been finishing off the odd try ( when Wighton lets the ball go) but offers little in creativity. He hasn't improved in 6 years . He couldn't even last more than a season at the Dogs. Rapana offers plenty of effort running the ball out of defence, but offers little creativity apart from those continual "sneaky shots" in tackles.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
Cotric, don’t make me laugh
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
I’d move Whitehead to 13, he’s he terrific there I think
jammel
Roar Rookie
Well - Nat - scoring more off kicks than 50+m efforts would be true of most teams wouldn't it? Eg Penrith?
jammel
Roar Rookie
Plenty enough striker power IMO - Wighton Savage HudsonYoung Cotric and Starling! IMO the key changes the Raiders need to make in attack to be more potent are: - Wighton to pop up on both sides. He just seems to stay on the left far too much; has to look for the ball on the third and fourth more - more time for Starling - try for more dynamism in the centres - eg HSS > Kris - CHN is vastly superior in attack to Sutton/AdamE as #13
jammel
Roar Rookie
Adam E is a big loss I agree - Sutton less so. A journeyman utility fwd IMO. The back 3 will be fine. Savage and Cotric are class. Rapana has an error in him - but big trier...we will be there and thereabouts in 2023 :) :)
jammel
Roar Rookie
Bateman a massive loss of course. Hodgson I think not! I don't mind that he's gone...hopefully Starling returns to his electric best running in 2023!
jammel
Roar Rookie
Yeah draw looks very good. HSS is class.
jammel
Roar Rookie
I agree on Tapine/CHN/Young. They're class. Disagree on JoshP - he'll be dominant and powerful for 40 minutes a game I reckon. Big seasons expected by me from Savage/Tapine/Young and particularly Fogarty. I am not worried by hooker. With Fogarty on the park the whole season, Xavier Savage a year older and some good other players returning from injury, I see us coming top 5/6. Maybe better! :) Let's go on a run in the finals again :)