Rabbitohs 2023 Outlook: Latrell still the key to Souths' success as Demetriou enters difficult second season

2023 is shaping up well for Souths. Well…it was. So much of their success is built on the whims of their best player, and before he found himself face down on the street at 3am in Canberra, you’d have said things were almost too quiet around Latrell Mitchell.

Whether it is deserved or not is by the by, the man is a walking headline. If I had a dollar for every time I’ve had to look at Jason Demetriou’s face as he was asked another Latrell question, I’d be a very wealthy chap indeed.

You get that in the big jobs, as JD learned the hard way last year. His transition to the head coaching role at Redfern was pretty seamless, and understandably so: by all accounts, he had been running the show anyway with Wayne Bennett sitting as something of a figurehead, so on an on-field, tactical level there wasn’t much furniture to move around. Given that they managed to bed in a rookie coach and a rookie halfback, making a Prelim was a superb result for South Sydney.

Furthermore, that they did so after such an almighty wobble in the middle of the year – see: the time said rookie coach hooked said rookie halfback before halftime – speaks to the confidence that they had in the system they had built. Bar that one horror night in Wollongong, Souths trusted the process.

The offseason is long and I have no life, so have done the hard yards on this: Souths were the most underperforming team in the comp last year relative to the statistical output they were producing.

In layman’s terms, they were doing all the right things but it wasn’t coming off, partly through poor end-point execution and just dumb luck.

I suggested in a presser with Demetriou in late June that, if they upped their execution by a tiny amount, they would thrash teams.

 I’m claiming the win on that one, because they went from 73% completions to 75% (still the worst in the NRL) and promptly won seven of their last ten, which – again, execution – could probably have been more.

That coincided with the return of Latrell, too, and the two are linked. He gives them that extra yard of speed in the passing and the extra implied threat that allows them to play further from the line.

They have a strong system with a highly defined style of play, but you can’t divorce the role that one exceptional individual talent provides in elevating that. Signing zero players but extending the guys that they have suggests the hierarchy at the Bunnies are happy with where they are and think they’re ready to take that next step.

Jason Demetriou. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

Path to the trophy

So how can they go one better in 2023? Well, I figure Souths were about the best attacking team in the comp last year – when they got it together – and that they possess the ability to blow pretty much anyone off the park when they felt like it.

In 2022, that fell down with a bit of bad luck and a bit of Panthers brilliance: they lost Tom Burgess and Siliva Havili for the Prelim, which Demetriou acknowledged was a huge problem for them, but were still very much in the fight until Brian To’o’s outstanding solo try on the brink of half time. On such moments are seasons made.

In 2023, I expect Souths to get better and the Panthers to get worse, so there’s that. If they can finish top four, it’ll help them a lot in terms of building into the finals.

Execution, as ever, remains their biggest issue but that improved as the year went on and their decision to stick with the roster as is would imply that cohesion is being relied upon to improve into this coming season.

There’s a pack of good youngsters, too, and another year into Lachlan Ilias in the halfback role. Souths are right up there with any of the challengers to dethrone Penrith come the end of the year.

(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

Danger signs

Have you seen the news? So much of their x factor is decided by how fit, firing and happy Latrell Mitchell is, and that is an issue now. His injury problems have receded but the potential for drama is always there.

Souths cop it, of course, because the upside is so high. Everyone knows what Latrell can bring. If he were to go down for a significant period, however, they will struggle like last year.

More subtly, the same is true of Cam Murray. He plays all the footy possible and is the fulcrum of the system, perhaps exemplifying the ball-playing lock role even more than Isaah Yeo does. That much game time into any player, but even more so in the forwards, will likely catch up with him.

The draw

Souths have a nightmare draw to start the year. They get Cronulla, Penrith and the Roosters as their first three, all on the road, then Manly – who might be anything – and the Storm at home.

Naturally, the pain can’t continue and the backend of the year is a little soft, so they shouldn’t be a worry for the finals or, if they get it together, even the top four.

There’s a lot of long turnarounds and their Origin run isn’t too harsh: they get the Cowboys, who will be equally gutted, and the Bulldogs, who could be in the same boat but with fewer alternative options.

Their bye comes in the second-to-last round, allowing for crucial rest before the finals and a chance to aim up at the Roosters in the traditional season closer.

The key three: Latrell Mitchell, Damien Cook, Keaon Koloamatangi

We’ve spent a lot of time of Latrell Mitchell, but for obvious reasons. He’s what elevates South Sydney from a good team to an elite one, and come the most important games, he’s the guy who tends to do something to get them over the line. When on song, there’s nobody who has the ability to change a game in an instant like Latrell does.

Damien Cook is in a similar boat. His best is among the very best around but he dropped a fair few points down the pecking order in 2022, culminating in losing his starting Origin spot and not getting picked for the World Cup. He couldn’t complain much about either.

That might benefit Cook in the long term, with a proper off-season and less footy due to be played.  Souths extended his contract – even though Peter Mamouzelos, their back-up, is more than good enough for first grade – and will be expecting big things in 2023.

Keaon Koloamatangi is almost the opposite of Cook – he might feel hard done by not to have been picked for NSW given the form he was in mid-year. The backrower put his head down, finished the season strongly and was Tonga’s best player in the World Cup.

There was the buildings of an excellent partnership with Ilias on the right edge by the end of the year, plus a new found creativity in the red and white jumper at the World Cup. This can be the year where Koloamatangi, set to turn 25 in May, truly enters his prime.

Player under pressure: Lachlan Ilias

Lachlan Ilias was in a strange bind last year. On one hand, expectations were on the floor because nobody could replace Adam Reynolds and it was unfair to think that a rookie could even get close. Internally at least, that’s what Souths thought. Their decision to dispense with their best ever 7 was based on many years to come, not just 2022.

On the other hand, here was a one-game rookie being asked not only to lead around one of the biggest teams in the game, but also to order Latrell Mitchell and Cody Walker about. The pressure in that regard was massive.

All in, year one was a success. Ilias’ attacking numbers were excellent and he grew into the season, saving his best showings for later in the year. Now, it’s time to back it up. The kicking needs to improve and the defence, while it was getting better, is still a weak spot. If the Bunnies are to challenge, Ilias needs to kick on again.

Lachlan Ilias. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)

Hidden Gem: Izaac Thompson

One of Souths’ biggest struggles last year was generating metres from the back 3. Alex Johnston, try-scoring feats aside, is far from a yardage winger. Latrell Mitchell, too, has perfected the art of injecting himself into games at the right moment. Dylan Edwards he is not.

On the other edge, they cycled through a few options and the best of them, Izaac Thompson, promptly got injured just two games into his stint.

Now fully healed, he seems set to take first dibs on the right wing and can be a huge threat at the start of sets with big carries and lots of metres. He’s 26, battle-hardened in the NSW Cup and has earned his spot.

Coach’s safety rating

Jason Demetriou did as well as could be expected in his first year and it’s hard to see him being under any pressure given the investment that the Bunnies have made in the long-term through player extensions. Difficult second season aside, JD is safe as houses.

Premiership odds

You can get Souths to win it all at $13, joint fifth with Cronulla. There might be a fair bit of value in that.

Predicted finish

The draw will probably limit their challenge for a Minor Premiership, but top four is a definite possibility and from there, anything can happen. With a fair wind, that should be where they land.

Squad list

Round 1 predicted team

1 Latrell Mitchell
2 Alex Johnston
3 Campbell Graham
4 Isaiah Tass
5 Izaac Thompson
6 Cody Walker
7 Lachlan Ilias
8 Tevita Tatola
9 Damien Cook
10 Thomas Burgess
11 Keaon Koloamatangi
12 Jai Arrow
13 Cameron Murray
Interchange
14 Blake Taaffe
15 Hame Sele
16 Jacob Host
17 Davvy Moale

Other squad members: Taane Milne (suspended), Liam Knight (injured), Ben Lovett, Daniel Suluka-Fifita, Dean Hawkins, Jed Cartwright, Josiah Karapani, Leon Te Hau, Michael Chee Kam, Peter Mamouzelos, Shaquai Mitchell, Siliva Havili, Terrell Kalo Kalo.

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Season Draw