It’s hard to divorce the Dragons results from the way that they play. The intention, from day dot, appears to be that they will be one point better than eight other teams and therefore make the finals. It’s inherently boring, attritional and, in the long-term, fruitless.
The problem is that, in the short term, it actually works quite well. They were better than a lot of bad teams last year and kept themselves in the hunt – pun vaguely intended, because without Ben they are less than nothing – for Finals until late in the piece.
Much as it ruined season 2021, Anthony Griffin must thank his lucky stars that his players ignored lockdown rules and decided to have a BBQ, because it shifted the attention away from his inability to progress this well-funded, well-supported football team and onto individuals, whom he could dispense with as it suited.
In 2022, that wore thin fast. They picked up a few good wins, and all of them at the right time: they caught the Roosters at their worst on Anzac Day, and the Rabbitohs at their worst on a wet Thursday in Wollongong. They got Manly when half the forward pack went down before half time and the Broncos at the peak of their unravelling.
It’s easy (and fun) to pick holes in Hook’s tactics, but the truth is that they do, in a limited way, work. If you’re a bad side and less than 100%, the Dragons beat you. If you’re a good side and less than 75%, they’ll beat you too.
It has a ceiling of about 8th place in the league and a first round exit in the Finals, but to be honest, most fans would probably take that at the moment. Anthony Griffin certainly would.
2023 is shaping up to be make or break for Hook. The complete-your-sets, make-your-tackles, chuck-it-to-Ben philosophy that has underpinned their footy will either work again, or he’ll get fired. By the noises coming out of Illawarra, it seems that everyone is braced for the latter.
The path to the trophy
It’s less of a path to the trophy and more of a path to the finals, but the Dragons’ hopes rest on another banner year for Ben Hunt, coupled with Zac Lomax deciding he wants to be a superstar centre rather than a show pony and one or several of their youth players kicking on.
It’s possible that they sack Hook early and get someone in who can make fans a little more optimistic, and give the players confidence to do something with their abilities. One wonders what a Brian Smith or even a Mick Potter might do with this playing group.
Instead, it might be Shane Flanagan and a better version of the current grindathon. Notice, however, that all paths to the finals involve sacking the current coach.
(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
The danger signs ahead
It’s a long list. Ben Hunt can’t be expected to do it all on his own for another year. They currently don’t have a five eighth. Jacob Liddle, their new hooker, was allowed to walk from the worst team in the league, which is hardly a ringing endorsement. Zac Lomax might keep trying that flick pass.
St George Illawarra are right down among the dregs in terms of the wooden spoon conversation, with many expecting a huge slide from last year’s already quite uninspiring season.
If it goes bad, it could go bad very fast. They are without Talatau Amone and Cody Ramsay for the foreseeable, Jayden Sullivan already has a hamstring problem before he’s played a game and Hook has less than no confidence in Tyrell Sloan. He’s only picking him because there’s nobody else.
Liddle is their only recognised hooker, unless Sullivan and Moses Mbye get shunted there again.
There’s 17 teams in the comp and my guess is that 15 of them have better prognoses than the Dragons. The good news is…
(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
The draw
The Titans twice in the first two months should buy Griffin plenty of time. Or get him sacked, I suppose. Usually we need to wait until the end of the year to realistically call a Spoonbowl, but we’ll get one in Round 2 and again in Round 6 if pre-season predictions are anything to go by.
St George have a featherbed of a start: the bye first up, then the Titans at home, with the Dolphins in there early too.
They never really get a stretch of multiple difficult fixtures in a row, and get to play the Tigers, Titans, Warriors and Dolphins – aka their potential fellow cellar dwellers – twice, while only facing the Panthers, Storm, Eels and Cowboys once.
The key trio: Ben Hunt, Zac Lomax, Jayden Sullivan
What the Dragons lack is creativity, so their three most creative players are their most important. To be honest, this could have just been Ben Hunt on his own, because they were a one man band at times last year, so it goes without saying that he has to play well for them to do well.
Lomax is a funny player, because all the talent in the world is there but he’s never seriously displayed it. Reports are that he will swap sides to improve the left edge defence, which could have the added benefit of taking away that flick pass he so loves.
Sullivan is currently injured but his ability to grow into the five eighth role without Junior Amone there is also crucial. Then again, he might find himself subbing in at hooker, so all bets are off.
(Photo by Jason McCawley/Getty Images)
Player under pressure: Tyrell Sloan
Tyrell Sloan will finally get a prolonged run at fullback, even though it’s only because there isn’t anyone else. His numbers, when he played, were actually fine last year – making it all the most inexplicable that Griffin didn’t trust his defence in a team that so badly struggled to attack.
Now there are no excuses. If he’s going to come good, it has to be now.
The hidden gem: Max Feagai
The Feagai twins have come through all the grades together, but while Mat made a huge impact on the wing in 2022 and cemented a first grade spot, Max was cruelly injured in the trials and missed out completely.
Arguably he was the more impressive in juniors and could make a serious impression if given game time. Max has been named for the Charity Shield in the extended bench, so he is back fit. After a few weeks in Cup, don’t be surprised to see him in first grade again.
Coach’s safety rating
Not great. The vultures are circling and anything other than a stellar start will likely see Griffin gone. I give him until Magic Round.
Anthony Griffin. (Photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images)
Premiership odds
$41 at PlayUp, same as the Titans and with only the Knights, Warriors, Tigers and Dolphins worse.
Predicted finish
The talent in the squad isn’t the 17th worst, but the use of it might be. For me, it’s between them and the Titans for last…so 16th it is.
Predicted Round 1 team
1 Tyrell Sloan
2 Mikaele Ravalawa
3 Moses Suli
4 Zac Lomax
5 Mat Feagai
6 Moses Mbye
7 Ben Hunt
8 Blake Lawrie
9 Jacob Liddle
10 Zane Musgrove
11 Jack Bird
12 Jaydn Su’A
13 Jack De Belin
Interchange
14 Billy Burns
15 Josh Kerr
16 Tyrell Fuimaono
17 Aaron Woods
Others: Francis Molo (suspended until Round 3), Junior Amone (stood down), Cody Ramsey, Jayden Sullivan (injured), Jaiyden Hunt, Max Feagai, Michael Molo, Nick Lui Toso, Tautau Moga, Billy Burns
Season Draw
Round 1 BYE
Round 2 v Titans @ Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
Round 3 v Broncos @ Suncorp Stadium
Round 4 v Sharks @ Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
Round 5 v Dolphins @ WIN Stadium
Round 6 v Titans @ CBUS Super Stadium
Round 7 v Raiders @ GIO Stadium
Round 8 v Roosters @ Allianz Stadium (ANZAC game)
Round 9 v Bulldogs @ WIN Stadium
Round 10 v Tigers @ Suncorp Stadium
Round 11 v Cowboys @ Queensland Country Bank Stadium
Round 12 v Roosters @ Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
Round 13 v Dolphins @ Moreton Daily Stadium
Round 14 v Panthers @ Bluebet Stadium
Round 15 v Rabbitohs @ Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
Round 16 v BYE
Round 17 v Warriors @ WIN Stadium
Round 18 v Sharks @ Pointsbet Stadium
Round 19 v Raiders @ WIN Stadium
Round 20 v BYE
Round 21 v Tigers @ WIN Stadium
Round 22 v Manly @ WIN Stadium
Round 23 v Eels @ Commbank Stadium
Round 24 v Souths @ Barlow Park, Cairns
Round 25 v Storm @ WIN Stadium
Round 26 v Warriors @ Mt Smart Stadium
Round 27 v Knights @ Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
Chris
Guest
I understand & never been a Griffin supporter. Blacker wouldn’t have been playing at Saints for quite a while , if he hadn’t been traded. Don’t remember Burns error rate being particularly high at Penrith? Interested in seeing how well Eddie goes , if given the chance in first grade.
Dean
Roar Rookie
Hey Chris I was aware of the back story but it was also short sighted. Within a few months of trading Blacker the Dragons were suddenly short of middles. Burns' line running isn't important to Hook's game plan. He does have a high error rate which may have earnt Hook's ire. If you look at the forward rotation pattern of last year, outside of a Lawrie, de Belin, McGuire, Bird and Su'a who typically played when fit there was little logic when and how the depth forwards were rotated in and out of the 17.
Chris
Guest
At the time, St.George were desperately short of small forwards , due to injuries . That why they traded Billy Burns from Penrith, for Eddie Blacker. Blacker had also done his ACL & wasn’t available to play the year of that trade. I thought it was a crazy trade for Penrith at the time . Trading a player who was going well, for someone who had a bung knee. Since then, Blacker was one of the best forwards in the NSW Cup last season for Penrith. Also one of the best for offloads in the grade. Burns seems to be disliked by St.George . He was genuinely a great support runner & hole runner at Penrith & scored some good tries. Maybe it’s poor coaching & he’s lost some enthusiasm while at St.George? Could see him again looking like a top up & coming small forward . If they can make the club a very positive environment to play for.
Choppy Zezers
Roar Rookie
And an annoying team like the Dragons shoulf get double. Anything we can do to get Hook an extension
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
Last year most folks here were on the Tigers.
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
A table provides information about which teams will make the finals based on competition points. The table is distorted by giving 2 points for a bye. The byes column, or giving points for byes, is not necessary as every team gets 3 byes. The table is distorted dependent on who gets the early byes. There is enough information in the games played, won and drawn columns to see how their team is going by ignoring the byes. Byes provide distortion not stability. The example of English soccer shows that they don’t use this distortion because their fans know that it depends on wins, draws and games played, so there is no need to add this distortion. I would be surprised if any competitions around the world give points for byes. It only made sense in the 1908 season when Cumberland dropped out after one round. I’ll have to go and see if anyone, anywhere uses this trick to keep a few fans happy.
Choppy Zezers
Roar Rookie
Why restrict yourself to one Nathan Brown when you could get both?
Redcap
Roar Guru
"It’s not like Dragons fans to be defeatist, pessimistic and turn on club officials during tough times" But we're so good at that.
Choppy Zezers
Roar Rookie
Oh David, you need to have faith. Have faith, sir. It's not like Dragons fans to be defeatist, pessimistic and turn on club officials during tough times. Here is the way forward: a dream spine made up of expat's ready to be unleashed back in the NRL Dufty Jarrod Mullen Mitchell Pearce James Segyaro Now, that's your divinr spine but when you add to the mix the likes of a Jorge Taufua, Kurt Mann, Josh Mansour, Bryce Cartwright and Kevin Naiquama...I mean thats a premiership story that writes itself.
bulldog Billo
Guest
The roar been predicting dragons for the spoon since 2016
KenW
Roar Rookie
I'm trying to explain that the table is distorted whether you give the 2 points or not. The decision is whether you want the table distorted at the bottom (by giving points) or the top (by not giving points). I would say they currently have it right by keeping the top of the table stable. Whether or not people who follow English soccer know or care about this isn't relevant. Neither is the complete non-sequiter in the last line.
Tim Buck 3
Roar Rookie
Giving 2 points for a bye distorts the table but there is no need for it. Why do you want to produce a false table? Do you ever hear English soccer fans complaining that their team is coming second because they have a game or two in hand? Giving two points for a bye is a unique Rugby League trait. It doesn't make any difference to the table at the end of the rounds when the final 8 are determined other than having a column where all teams have six points. What is sad is today a healthy 21 year old woman has died after getting the Maderna vaccine.
JennyFromPenny
Guest
A Melbourne pathway ? I thought players only travelled South down the Hume Hwy.
Bernie
Roar Rookie
yes but Robbo, that just looks like more of the same, which means more of Hook. something needs to change, either have a complete personality transplant and finish well within the eight, or have a barry crocker & come near last, which should force the clubs hand and find a new coach.
Bernie
Roar Rookie
please please please add J.Kerr to that list KenW.
Bernie
Roar Rookie
brilliant Chop. could make the Brown Bowl out of off-cuts of dodgily welded chicken plate steel cast-offs, representing the faded glory of the once mighty steelworks of both Newie and the Gong. also, as doubtless both teams will be way out of finals contention, how about a "guest" spot on the bench for two of our respective greats in the Duftstar & Tex Hoy, another fabulous head-to-head match up, or a special cameo from Danny Wicks & Chris Houston.
Fairdinkum
Roar Rookie
Hi Mike, You have Billy Burns in the 14 & also amongst other players ? I don't think they'll get the spoon.Also when you're in the presser & Hook starts on the completions why not ask a hard hitting question that has nothing to do with this to change the conversation. Something like why did so & so only get 2 minutes off the bench or why is the attack so one dimensional.
Redcap
Roar Guru
That was the dream, Choppy, but elite players like Dufty are hard to sign for beggars like the Dragons. I believe Hook has his eyes on Albert Kelly and Karmichael Hunt to fill the last few roster spots.
Tony
Roar Guru
Classic :laughing:
Choppy Zezers
Roar Rookie
Missing out on Brodie Croft is huge for the dragons. If you got Croft, and the other old darter in Dufty, then your whole spine becomes super human