There’s nothing quite like the pre-season hope of the NRL fan. The new signings are going to turbocharge your club’s premierships chances, your team has been “training the house down”, and Peter V’landys 585th proposed rule change only benefits your playing squad.
Yes, hope springs eternal in February.
Yet it represents something a little different for yours truly. Namely, it’s the time when I have to once again put my neck on the chopping block, and publish my fearless predictions for the year.
It’s always a fun exercise, made even more enjoyable by Roarers telling me the exact same prediction is both “not fearless at all, that’s boring and easy” or “absolutely stupid, has no chance of happening”.
So, drum roll please, because here we go again!
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1. The Dolphins won’t get wooden spoon
Getting fearless early this year.
One look at the Dolphins roster is one look too many: you shouldn’t stare at ugly things for long. Yes, it’s not pretty in Redcliffe – or wherever this club is calling home – but as a new team, that’s somewhat expected. Though they did try to sign a superstar, they came up short, and instead filled the roster out with journeymen and youngsters.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
That means there will be plenty of growing pains for the NRL’s newest team. Wins won’t come easy or often, and almost everyone is picking them to win the spoon in their first season. But not I.
Wayne Bennett is worth a few wins all by himself, and there is enough talent there to win the odd game, and maybe even keep them off the very bottom of the ladder.
2. Matt Burton will take home the Dally M Medal
Didn’t take long for some Bulldogs bias to creep in. Prediction number two, and already I’m handing out some medals to my team.
Burton has already won a premiership, played Origin football, and represented his country, so it would be very easy to overlook the fact that he’s still just 22 years of age. He’s a relative ‘baby’ who still learning his craft.
He’s also an undeniable talent though. He has a super boot, excellent skills, and a touch of class. He shows glimpses being of legitimate superstar.
With some more playing talent around him in 2023, he may just fulfil that potential well ahead of schedule, and take home the NRL’s highest individual award in 2023.
3. The Panthers won’t make Grand Final
There are 17 teams in the competition, so predicting that just one of them won’t make the grand final at season’s end doesn’t seem all that fearless.
Yet when that team has the shortest odds to win the premiership (just $4), and have made the last three grand finals, it does give you a reason to pause. In fact, you know a prediction is outlandish when you’re not really sure you should be predicting it, as you suspect you’ll be wrong.
However, the Panthers have lost some very good players, and making four grand finals is incredibly hard. As defending premiers, they get every opponent’s best effort, as everyone always wants to beat the best team. Additionally, when you make the grand final every year, you’re playing more games than everyone else, in a fairly gruelling sport. All of that may catch up with Penrith this year.
(That’s me trying to apply some rational logic to a very irrational prediction.)
4. Wests Tigers won’t be hot garbage
OK, this prediction needs something a little more quantifiable, as ‘hot garbage’ is quite subjective and therefore hard to judge. A cynic may even suggest I did that on purpose …
How about we unleash one of my famed two-for-one predictions, and state the Tigers won’t finish in the bottom four, and will have a points differential of -120 or better? Both of these would be massive improvements on 2022’s efforts of the wooden spoon, and a points differential of -327.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
The Tigers have a pretty solid pack, which means they shouldn’t get bashed up too heavily in the middle of the park. While the recruitment of Api Koroisau will help give them a little more direction and dynamism in attack.
These are the two areas the Tigers needed to address, and have, so I think they’ll improve quite a bit in 2023.
My ladder prediction
1. Panthers
2. Roosters
3. Sharks
4. Storm
5. Rabbitohs
6. Eels
7. Cowboys
8. Bulldogs
9. Raiders
10. Sea Eagles
11. Knights
12. Broncos
13. Tigers
14. Titans
15. Dragons
16. Dolphins
17. Warriors
Dutski
Roar Guru
It was the only one that was even close :laughing:
Redcap
Roar Guru
I wonder why I thought the Tigers would do well. Whataver, won't make that mistake again.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Pretty good 1. Spot on 2. Bellamy didn’t resign. Yet. But Slater did have a successful Origin. Half a point 3. Not quite, but he is promoting remote coaching. Half point 4. Spot on 5. Oooh 3/5 is pretty good… especially as you went out on a limb
The Barry
Roar Guru
Geez - your number four prediction started well, but you got a bit too specific…
Maxtruck
Roar Rookie
The only way Burton will win the Dally M is if Ruan Sims is allocating points
John Treloar
Roar Rookie
What are the Cowboys going to finish 10th
John Treloar
Roar Rookie
HERE is my predictions 1st Bulldogs miss the eight [two players can't make that much difference] Second biggest flop Matt Burton his halfback is nowhere near a first grade player his playing on his name, but the good news for them. Tigers will finish a long way behind them
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
One of the major issues facing the NRL in the coming years is predictability. It is getting like the EPL and many other soccer/football comps where the same faces are seen at the business end every year. Supporters of those teams applaud the results and say the rest need to catch up, however, the environment and establishment can be a difficult tide to swim against. Warriors and GC struggle to get out of the mire in a very Sydney centric officialdom. Too often I see poor decisions on the field that these clubs are expected to cop yet had the same decisions been made against some favoured team (usually a Sydney one) the objections and screaming would be loud and long. One Sydney club alone is the catalyst for about 75% of sackings of officials and the resulting fear in officials of putting that club offside appears noticeable. If this isn't addressed we'll end up with a comp of only 10 teams or only 10 relevant/competitive teams and it's not just up to the struggling clubs to 'lift their game', the NRL leadership must intervene. With that in mind, my 'not too Fearless Five (evaluations moreson than predictions)';- 1. I did a review of the past 10 years+ final 8 and each year there are only 1 or two changes (entrenching the problem above) in the 8. 3 would be highly unlikely so.... 2. the teams in danger of missing the 8 from last year would possibly be;- Raiders and until I saw last night's game - the Eels might have been another. 3. The only teams from '22 bottom 8 with a chance to go into the top this year would be Manly and Broncos, though I have doubts about both coaches, and very outside chance of Dogs and Titans. I think Dogs need one more year and will be there in '24. 4. Teams who have a chance of following Cows out of the wilderness into consistent competitiveness would be the Dogs & Titans. Slightly maybe Tigers in a few years with their strong juniors . The Dolphins only if they get the kind of support the Storm gets, which won't happen in QLD. 5. Perpetual basket cases, Knights on the verge of joining Dragoons, Warriors and Tigers in this category and your spoon will come from here. Which is where the problem comes, the NRL doesn't have the audience of the EPL so cannot keep having the same faces year in year out.
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
It's the merge curse. Manly are still on the edges because they escaped in time. Dragoons and Tigers now perennial basket cases...
DP Schaefer
Roar Rookie
#4 is a gem
Tim Carter
Roar Pro
Okay, time to make some bold/nutty calls. 1. Parramatta 74 - Cronulla 4 is the biggest win in the NRL era. It will be broken this year. 2. Judiciary fines will be dumped mid-season after backlash from persistent, worsening foul play. Not going to name names, but at least one front rower for the Kiwis will be prominent. 3. Having 17 teams is going to suck. Crowds will drop as the regular season drags on (27 rounds, folks), and byes will have a disproportionate effect on results. 4. The Tigers will continue to suck (their signings can't cover for the overall poor quality of their squad), and will only be saved from the spoon by a team with an even more imbalanced, undisciplined and unhappy roster. The Dragons will eye off the spoon from early on and tell all of the other contenders "you can't touch this." 5. Melbourne's roster losses and injury tally should see them miss the finals, but it's Melbourne, so they'll remain one of the teams to beat. Instead, based on them overachieving last season and a general gut feeling, the Sharks will tumble (and recover in 2024, but that's another list of predictions again). The (even more inaccurate) ladder: 1. Easts 2. Penrith 3. Souths 4. Storm 5. Cowboys 6. Raiders 7. Eels 8. Dogs 9. Sharks 10. Manly 11. Broncos 12. Warriors 13. Titans 14. Newcastle 15. GNB Dolphins 16. Western Suburbs 17. Dragons
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
I take your point. For mine, they're good players, but not outstanding. Hence the use of the word. But if it's slightly incorrect usage, then I'll take it on the chin.
JennyFromPenny
Guest
I think there will be four teams move out of the 8. The game has levelled out massively over the past two years. Spreading the talent around has dropped the overall standard of play. It's a more level playing field, but it's a lower level playing field. The NorthPole top4 and SouthPole bottom4 are both heading quickly towards the middle8 Equator. And four teams dropping out has happened 5 times this century. There was even a five team swap '09 to '10.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Roar Rookie
"In American English, a journeyman or journeywoman is an athlete who is technically competent but unable to excel. The term is used elsewhere (such as in British and Australian contexts) to refer to a professional sportsman who plays for numerous clubs during his career." Examples of journeymen - Brenko Lee (6 clubs), Danny Levi (5 clubs), Matt Lodge (4 clubs), Mitch Rein (4 clubs). In contrast the Bromwich brothers had only played for the Storm before moving to the Dolphins.
Rellum
Roar Guru
No, not remotely. They were key members of the most outstanding pack of the last decade. They are legit rep stars. That by definition is outstanding. Journeymen are generally those who move from team to team, hence the name. If the Bulldogs, Roosters or South’s had signed them no one would be calling them journeymen.
a
Guest
My bonus one there will be a draw this season because as history says we usually have to wait 3 years for a draw and this must mean we are due for 1
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Well . . . yes. The definition of a journeyman is: "a worker or sports player who is reliable but not outstanding." You don't think that's fair or apt?
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
You must be new around here?! I always revisit them come season's end!
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
I actually these are pretty solid predictions. Be good to wrap them at season's end to see how you went.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
It's actually conservative!