Who drops out of the AFL top 8 in 2023 and why?

As it is with any AFL season, fans are often inundated with articles about what we should expect. It’s usually regarding who the winners and losers of pre-season games actually are, which coaches/players are in the hot seat, as well as the all-important top eight or ladder predictions.

It’s often the latter that dominates the AFL sphere and prompts discussion and debate amongst fans. In many of these predictions, there seems to be this pre-conceived notion that the top eight either won’t change from last year or only one team, often the team that finished 9th, will break in into the eight.

However, when comparing previous years it becomes quite apparent that the top eight is constantly changing and is rarely, if ever, stagnant.

To be fair, it is completely understandable why some people fail to see that. We have a very small sample size in terms of seeing teams play, with most now favouring intra-club games. When every club comes out saying that their players have been ‘training the house down’ and that there in ‘the best shape of their lives’, we as fans often fall back on last season’s results as a somewhat reliable indicator of what to expect for the next.

On average, of the eight teams that have made the finals each year since 2000, roughly three teams, or 2.91 if you want to be exact, do not make back-to-back finals’ appearances.

With that knowledge in mind, it’s about time that we examine the top eight from last year and figure out who’s the most likely to drop out and why.

Teams that suffer massive grand final losses like Sydney did back in September have often struggled to bounce back the next year. Of the eight teams that have suffered an eight goal or worse defeat in the decider since 2000, only three teams (2021 Western Bulldogs, 2014 Sydney Swans and 2010 St Kilda Saints) have made it back to the finals the year after.

Even then, none of those teams would win a finals game showing how damaging a loss of that proportion is to the psyche of a club.

The Sydney Swans were flogged in the 2022 Grand Final. Can they mount another charge this season? (Photo by Mark Kolbe/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

We often play into the narrative that teams like Sydney will bounce back with even more determination to go one better and redeem themselves from last year’s demons. But often, it appears that these types of results can set clubs back a year or two, which I believe will happen to Sydney.

Collingwood, as well despite playing some amazing football last year, also look likely to fall out of the eight. In 2022, suddenly under new coach Craig McRae, they came from 17th to 4th which, frankly, no one saw coming.

Teams that make the shift from having no expectations to all of a sudden being expected to contend for a premiership can often struggle with that adjustment. We’ve seen it happen in recent times to Melbourne, Hawthorn back in 2019 and to a lesser extent Port Adelaide in 2018, after much hype and expectation within the media to maintain and build upon their impressive season into next.

Considering the number of close games that Collingwood won, 11 out of their 16 by under two goals and the likelihood of that repeating not being strong, it seems unlikely that they will play finals in 2023.

The Western Bulldogs, with the loss of Josh Dunkley, also look set to miss the top eight. Losing a guy that averages 25 disposals, six tackles, six marks and a goal per game throughout last season is big for any team, regardless of the depth that the Bulldogs have in midfield.

Josh Dunkley is a huge loss for the Bulldogs. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

The difference between them getting into finals last year and finishing ninth was 0.6 on percentage and that certainly makes their position precarious, with teams such as Carlton, Gold Coast and Port Adelaide looking likely to push for a top-eight finish and outrank the Bulldogs.

Add in their issues in defence which saw them rank eleventh for points conceded and I think that they will finish outside the finals’ positions.

As ever with predictions, they are hard to get right due to the unpredictable nature of footy, it’s what makes it great. But to expect the same thing to repeat itself over and over is foolish and hopefully, it can lead to more thought-provoking and interesting narratives heading into the season.