The Force, Rebels, and Waratahs have six weeks to break losing habits with the finals still in reach

Winning is a habit, or so the saying goes, and it’s certainly true that losing is also a habit that teams at some point in their lives need to break out of.

The Melbourne Rebels and NSW Waratahs both showed an ability to compete with more fancied opponents over the weekend before ultimately falling out of the contest, and albeit significantly earlier for the Tahs than the Rebels.

The Western Force had their best first half of the season to lead 24-3 at the break – not just their biggest halftime lead of the season, but in fact their first halftime lead of the season! But they too left themselves open to a second-half comeback from the Highlanders, before composing themselves and going onto record their third win of the season, and returning to the top eight in the process.

In all three cases, it’s more than fair to assume that a losing habit that has plagued all three playing groups for the last few seasons played a major role in their allowing the opposition back.

“They weren’t doing anything that was making us think or really troubling us – it was our penalties,” Force skipper Michael Wells told The West Australian after the win.

“We gave away an offside, then a penalty for hands in the ruck, gave away a maul penalty and then we got one in the sin-bin,” he said.

The Rebels and Waratahs would no doubt say something very similar. Both lost players to yellow cards and conceded converted tries the very next minute.

And the reality in this is that as much promise as all these squads showed coming into this season, there still isn’t a whole lot of winning experience among their players within. You only have to look at how many times the Crusaders have got themselves out of trouble – even just this year – to know how important that is to teams.

Similarly, the Brumbies in 2023 have scrapped home for wins that were far from comfortable, or even that they perhaps weren’t really entitled to win. Their bonus point win over the Drua in Canberra only a few weeks ago is just the most recent case in point. But they have now been in enough scraps as a squad to know what to do when things aren’t going their way.

The Force, Rebels, and Waratahs don’t know how to do that yet.

The Queensland Reds, for the sake of inclusivity, are in a funny spot. They kind of feel like they’re stagnating in terms of their development, sitting precariously on the edge of slipping backwards or being able to take the next step forward. Brad Thorn’s decision would seemingly confirm all this, and their ability to move forward and improve as a group is now dependant on how much a new coach feels they need to change.

Brad Thorn is set to stand down as Queensland Reds coach following the 2023 season. Photo: Getty Images

But, the Force did find the composure they needed to hold the Highlanders’ comeback off in Perth on Saturday night. They’ve been run down from a similar position too many times in the recent past.

Their last 20 minutes was probably their best quarter of the game, from an actually being-in-control perspective. They finally got back to 15 players on the field, kicked penalties at important times to extend their lead, and in the end won what earlier had threatened to be a crazy game pretty well.

The Rebels, from my quick flick back through results over the years, hadn’t led the Crusaders at half-time in a game since they beat them in Christchurch in 2015. They led by 12 at the break and held that for another 15 minutes before David Havili crossed for his second try of the game.

But the loss of Vaiolini Ekuasi to a yellow card on their line would be the Rebels’ undoing.

They conceded a try the next minute as mentioned above, and lost the last 17 minutes of the game 24-3. Reece Hodge kicked a 68th-minute penalty to regain a one-point lead, but it was always a tenuous grip.

They still couldn’t work out how to use it to their advantage, conceded another converted try two minutes later, and the horse had bolted.

Strangely, it might still be their best performance of the season, and the six teams to face the Crusaders over the remaining rounds would undoubtedly have noted how effective the Rebels were at defending right in the face of the red and blacks, and how equally effectively they forced turnovers, mistakes, and penalties.

At half-time, the Crusaders looked shocked, and there’s no doubt this win cost them much more energy and emotion than they had forecast before boarding the plane for Melbourne.

(Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

But the way the Super Rugby Pacific season has played out so far, and especially with how tight things are in the bottom half of the table, there is still plenty of time for the Rebels, Force, and even the Waratahs to find some form and if they’re good enough, the finals series is absolutely still in reach.

The Highlanders snuck into the final playoff spot last season with only four wins and a better for-and-against than the Force, only one more win than they, the Force, Drua, and the Reds have now. It’s only two more than the Waratahs and Rebels have now.

Furthermore, with the bottom half of the table essentially playing each other over the remaining six rounds, there’s plenty of opportunities to strings wins together. And the gap to the top half of the table means that three teams qualifying sixth, seventh and eighth could all get in with perhaps only three more wins. Six wins feels like it might be enough for several teams.

(Disclaimer: I’ve not actually don’t the maths on this yet, I’m saving that for the annual ‘Run Home’ column in the next few weeks.)

But to do that, the Force, Rebels and Waratahs need to find a way to break the losing habits that have plagued them for some time, and continue to plague them even when in strong positions to win games. The same applies to the Reds, Highlanders, and Drua as well, obviously.

If they’re good enough, there’s more than enough time to get there.

But it means all of these teams need to break habits now. The first and most effective teams to do it will absolutely play finals this season.