ANALYSIS: Eddie's spoiled for choice with three distinct options at No. 15 - which way should he go?

Like pretty much every other position in the Australian squad, fullback remains open.

In the five recent Australian matches, four fullbacks were used. Tom Banks was given the first chance, then Jock Campbell had two matches to prove the position was his before Andrew Kellaway and Tom Wright finished the job. It’s yet another example of the disjointed thinking that infected Australia towards the end of the Dave Rennie reign. Of course, Rennie’s time is over, so who will and who should be put in place now that Eddie Jones has taken over?

Different teams have different attributes they look for in their fullbacks. Towards the end of Jones’ spell with England, he turned to Freddie Steward to win the aerial battle at the expense of a running threat. That worked, to an extent, with England because it suited their ‘pragmatic’ game plan. They expected to spend the majority of time out of possession and so they wanted someone who could protect against aerial attack. 

Of course, other teams have other game plans and fullback is generally a position you can fill with a person who complements your game plan. New Zealand for example have largely used fullback as a stop gap for a second fly-half. Wales have bounced between a solid defensive fullback (Leigh Halfpenny) and more attacking alternatives (Johnny McNicholl and Liam Williams). France have followed New Zealand’s approach with both Melvyn Jaminet and Thomas Ramos more than capable when playing flyhalf. 

What are the relative skillsets of the three competing for the Australian jersey? For starters, Kellaway looks to have the upper hand at being involved as he is understood to be part of the leadership team. However, given that he has featured on the wing more than at fullback, there’s no guarantee that he will be selected as a fullback.

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Kellaway has featured less than either Campbell or Wright, with Banks out with an injury. However, he has scored more tries – 2, than either of them. Kellaway scored both of those tries when coming off the bench and filling essentially a floating back three player role. That could stand him in good stead because he could come in as a winger who just happens to be playing fullback. 

As it stands, Kellaway has been the more explosive of the three contenders. He has made fewer carries but he has beaten more defenders per carry. He also has the best tackle success rate of the three of them. However, there are question marks over his positioning. 

Against the Crusaders, he was pulled out of position by a line break for the second Crusader try. He correctly stayed on the blindside to cover the threat. However, a couple of phases later the threat had gone but Kellaway hadn’t moved back to the midfield. The Crusaders then scored on a dinked kick over the top. These are the things that international team analysts will spot in seconds. Their team’s fly-halves and fullbacks will then be on the lookout for chip kick opportunities close to the opposition line.

Wright is the other major contender for the shirt. He has played every match bar one for the Brumbies this season and so has the most minutes of any of the three, all of them at fullback. He also has the highest metres gained per carry and is a significantly better kicker than Kellaway. In short, he is a more typical fullback – if we think of that as a defence first player. He has conceded fewer turnovers per carry made than either Kellaway or Campbell. He might be seen as a safe pair of hands.

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Expect to see more territory swinging kicks like this if Wright gets the nod. This would fit into Eddie Jones’ described plan of playing. He has stated that he wants to play a power game. That will likely focus on short term possession and then, if they don’t break through, kicking the ball and changing the field position.

Wright is perhaps the most natural fullback, which is unusual as he has predominantly played winger. This is one of the challenges Australia face. Only Jock Campbell has played the majority of his career at fullback, but even he has almost split 50/50 between fullback and wing. Wingers can transition into fullback, but you don’t want them learning positioning against one of the world’s best international teams.

Campbell might have played fullback most regularly, but he is probably third in line for the Wallabies 15 shirt. He has the least explosive carrying of the three players and also the worst tackle success rate. He has found himself replaced, at various points in the season, by Jordan Petaia at fullback. 

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He had a good outing against France in the spring, scoring a try and making some strong carries. But even there he played like a hybrid fullback/winger. In the example above, he was operating as a typical winger with Wright and Bernard Foley in the backfield. 

This is the final factor we should consider. Modern rugby isn’t as simple as it once was. Teams typically don’t defend with a back three pendulum anymore. Instead, they drop their fullback, and often flyhalf, to cover the deep part of the pitch. Their wingers can then apply more pressure up the pitch. Although the constant chopping and changing of position Australia employ is unhelpful for the long term, it might help them for this World Cup.

It might be that all three players we’ve talked about here are involved in Jones’ plans. It’s unlikely, but possible, all three are involved in a match day squad together. With this level of versatility, Australia can do some really interesting things with their set-up. They might drop Wright back for some of the game when they want to kick for territory. Then they might drop Kellaway back when the game has opened up and his carrying becomes more effective. 

It’s yet another fascinating story in the complex narrative of Australia’s selection saga.