Eddie Jones’ debut with Australia is coming up. His first game in charge will be on July 8 against South Africa in Pretoria.
We have talked a lot in recent weeks about who Jones might include in his team, but little about how they will play. In this article, we will look at the options available to Jones and speculate about which might suit the Wallabies the best.
Three Phase – Strike or Kick
This is the playing style that the majority think Jones will employ. It involves striking hard when you have the ball and an opportunity arises, but otherwise giving up possession when there isn’t a clear point scoring opportunity. In general, teams playing this way will be defending for most of the game.
There is often a misunderstanding about the specifics of this playing style. It’s not just playing without the ball, although that is part of it. Instead, it’s playing without the ball but with the capability to score when you receive possession and force your opponents into errors.
A good example would be France in the international game. They kick a huge amount and defend generally more than they attack. Leicester Tigers in England won the Premiership last season with an extreme example of this game plan. Both Leicester and France were successful because they could score tries when they did have possession and they applied huge pressure to their opponents when they had the ball.
Wallabies coach Eddie Jones during an Australia Wallabies training camp at Sanctuary Cove on April 18, 2023 in Gold Coast, Australia. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
If Jones is looking for an Australian team to use as a model, he could do worse than the Brumbies. The Brumbies are the best Australian team, currently sitting in third place in the league. They rank second last by possession however, behind only the Waratahs. They have conceded the fewest penalties in the league and scored the second most tries per game in the league.
Where the Brumbies under-perform is with their ability to strike when they do have the ball. On average in Super Rugby, teams will either beat a defender or get a clean break every fourth carry. Every team in Super Rugby sits somewhere between three and five carries for this stat. The Brumbies sit below the average though and require more carries before they get their reward. That isn’t great news when they have so little possession.
If Australia did go for this approach, they would want a significantly better return for the relatively few carries they would get. They would also want a bomb proof lineout to use as an attacking platform when they won penalties and could kick into the opposition 22.
Control the Ball
This attacking style had gone massively out of fashion in recent years. Teams were winning with very little of the ball and it seemed like attack coaches were planning for their teams to give possession up as quickly as possible rather than hoard it. Of course, fashion is cyclical, and the recent most successful teams have been possession hoarders. Ireland won the Six Nations with this style of attack, La Rochelle won the Heineken Cup like this, and Toulouse currently sit top of the Top14. In Super Rugby, the Blues and Crusaders have both made the most carries and sit in the top four in the league.
Teams with this style will generally take a lot of carries before finding a successful one and will retain a higher percentage of their rucks. The goal is to squeeze their opponents by forcing them to defend carry after carry. Not only does this tire them in defence, it also blunts their attack when they do get the ball.
Teams with this approach will rarely have a maverick flyhalf. They want someone who is a steady pair of hands who won’t give up possession easily. Finding the balance between conservatively holding onto possession and ensuring that you do occasionally make progress with the ball can be hard. For a long time, the Exeter Chiefs in the UK were successful with this style. However, this season they failed to make the playoffs and that was in large part due to their game plan becoming too conservative. They could hold onto possession, but couldn’t ever make progress. Eventually, they just ran out of opportunities.
Go from Anywhere
This is the kind of rugby people think they want their team to play, but it almost never works. Bristol Bears in the UK have dabbled with a less extreme variant of this and Fijian Drua currently use it in Super Rugby. Drua have the third highest carry metres, the fewest kicks, and the fifth fewest carries per defender or clean break. But, they sit in tenth place in the league.
Teams like this often rack up gaudy stats because they make plenty of easy metres from deep in their own half. However, aside from a few highlight reel worthy length of the field tries, these attacks normally end up with a turnover. It’s not to say it never works, but the level of risk is normally completely at odds with what modern coaches are willing to accept.
What will Eddie Jones choose?
When he was coaching England Jones chopped and changed his attacking philosophy. Towards the end, it was centred much more on being conservative and not getting caught in possession. That was hated by a lot of England fans who wanted to see their team cut loose, even when they were ultimately successful with the restricted game plan. With Japan, Jones had them playing an up tempo high-possession game where he tried to tire out the opposition with his uber-fit squad.
Australia have the personnel to go down any of these routes but I actually think Jones might play more of a possession heavy style. I expect Will Skelton and Richie Arnold to make the World Cup squad and I would personally have them in the match day 23. Both are used to a high possession game and would be at their best in that game plan.
Will Skelton of Australia pictured during the Autumn International match between Ireland and Australia at Aviva Stadium on November 19, 2022 in Dublin, Ireland. (Photo by Charles McQuillan/Getty Images)
In addition, the typical weakness in the Australian side is in their defending. In Super Rugby, the Rebels, Brumbies, and Reds rank in the bottom six by the number of unsuccessful tackles they allow in a game. An unsuccessful tackle is either a missed tackle or one where an offload is allowed. Playing a low-possession game when your defending isn’t up to scratch is a recipe for disaster. The Rebels have done that this year where they have had less than 50% possession and a pretty woeful defence.
We will wait to see which option Jones and his coaching staff choose. Needless to say, they won’t have very long to stress test it before the World Cup comes along. Will that stop him from doing anything too extreme?
MO
Roar Rookie
Cheers pk. Our support play is not going to be up to scratch then.
PeterK
Roar Guru
Coopers defence was fine since he came back, only CG's is better. Kerevi's defence is fine at 12, he is not good enough in defence at 13. You need a strong line out and mauls also to play this type of game. Mark N has 84% tackle success, the best of the wings. Yes you need high work rate forwards, and elusive attackers, and at least 1 wing very good in the air. Yes I will be very interested in the first team ej names.
savant
Roar Rookie
Reflecting more on your comments Peter, a 3 phase and territory game will necessitate a different mix of players to the Rennie years. Do we need as many big Polynesian collision players if we’re only holding for 3 phases, 1 of which is likely to go the backs? Also if we’re kicking and defending more don’t we need higher work rate tackling forwards and better tackling backs? Do you go Pooper with Gamble at 8? Swap a Leota for a Wright? And can we carry both Kerevi and Cooper in defence? Skelton would appear necessary if lineout maul becomes a priority but he would need to be balanced by high work rate tacking forwards. Interesting times.
savant
Roar Rookie
Let’s hope we don’t meet NZ then. Their back 3 are lethal in counter attack and Cooper and Kerevi are inconsistent defenders. Wright and Petaia have also made errors out wide. Kellaway comes strongly into the picture if we play territory as he is a good defender.
Sam Larner
Expert
Thanks Dusty! Low possession rugby has proven to be really effective unfortunately (fortunately) depending on your view point. Leicester Tigers won the English Prem with no ball at all. In fact, they beat Exeter when making 134 more tackles. If you have possession outside the opp 22 then it's not always a positive.
Sam Larner
Expert
Teams will play what's in front of them, but you need some structure otherwise it'll all fall flat. Even the most conservative teams will still go for it from their own 22 if the opportunity is really obvious.
Aiden
Roar Rookie
You are right, I upvoted your comment, its not insane, but can WE do it well? We have been awful at that style when we have attempted it. Problems are, we don't apply blowtorch defensive pressure needed to pull it off (like the Boks and France), we don;t chase kicks with any intensity, we are often beaten at the breakdown or are penalized when we try and up the tempo and we kick badly. I'd prefer us to keep the ball, not Chieka style flinging it about side to side, but keep it in tight, make patient incremental gains (which our forwards are capable of and do well), and then use our power runners off a decent half like QC to make short breaks. Follow the runner, recycle the ball, repeat. Playing tight has worked well for the WBs in the last little while.
Aiden
Roar Rookie
This style has worked well for us. Keep the ball, but don't go wide unless absolutely necessary. If I think of the games we've done well in over the last six or so years, we were patient with our forwards, our power running backs took the ball forward and made half breaks combining with the forwards. The swashbuckling style does not suit us. No-one supports the runners and we go backwards. The kicking style does not suit us as we don't chase the kicks, we are weak at the breakdown and the kicking is generally poor. Although having said all the above maybe Eddie can get us playing differently. Most of all, guys need to be smarter at playing the moment.
PeterK
Roar Guru
From what I have read and checked yes ej's is correct. However lets remember tries scored from mauls from 5 m lineouts are scored in the 1st phase.
PeterK
Roar Guru
the game plan imo
Cheika_Mate
Roar Rookie
I’ve seen Gleeson play 7. A freak of a player. Not a crazy idea at all particularly say against the Boks.
Francisco Roldan
Roar Rookie
Excellent analysis Sam…! Wallabies during 2022 showed their difficulties not only to generate opportunities but also to take advantage of them. Basically, the risks in the management of Australia are concentrated in the breakdown dispute, where it shows the highest number of penalties. In the Autumn Series, he suffered 28 breakdown penalties in 5 matches and the lowest hold rate in rucks of SH teams. In RugbyChampionship 2022 he scored 44 penalty rucks in 6 matches. Whichever way Jones chooses to develop the game plans, he must have reassurance around the successful execution of the breakdown.
MO
Roar Rookie
Is that a fact though pk. I recall nick b disputing Eddie’s media stated facts. Nick b knows his stats and doesn’t have an agenda.
Busted Fullback
Roar Rookie
We were smarter when there was more variety in the coaching ranks along more player development pathways. When we had schoolboy pathways, we had schoolboy coaches, U18/19 rep coaches, U21, U23, district teams, country teams, city teams, state teams. All these teams had a multitude of coaches adding to the knowledge and experiences of the player. Now we have all rep teams controlled by the small group of coaches employed by state academies that are aligned with the wishes of RA to develop common ways of playing the game. Is this the result of modern society? Where younger people don’t value the experience of the mature? Someone should let them know that variety is the spice of life, that is if they care to listen (to boomers or older :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: ).
Busted Fullback
Roar Rookie
Was it the game plan that caused turnover, or that too many players carried with one hand? Two hands keeps the defence, even at international standard, wondering if the player will run or pass. Even at international level, most players have difficulty getting a good pass away with only one hand. But it’s sure easy to lose control of the ball whit only one hand on the ball.
Busted Fullback
Roar Rookie
Peter, looking at a lot of the comments, it would seem we would do well with a team that is capable of playing heads up, what’s in front of you rugby. It’s been so long since an Australian SR or National side played this way, could EJ have them doing this before the year is out? We may be in one of the two “easy” pools, we still have to win games to advance, but will 9 games be enough to see us go further than the first knock-out game? I hope so.
Busted Fullback
Roar Rookie
So Peter, where are you coaching? Giving tactical advice? Or just waiting for the Reds to call. :laughing: :laughing: :laughing:
Wizz
Roar Rookie
Not hard to list them in OZ forwards…Bell FF Toupou Skelton Holloway Gleeson Frost at six too jump only non linebender allowed …AAA Slipper Porecki Small fetchers Wright will feature possible but when others have softened opposing pack up…if not static ball plans out the window.Left out most damaging ball carrier Bobby V.. Apologies Bobby..
Die hard
Roar Rookie
He has just been signed by the Crusaders who are a bit light on depth for centers and needed more.
Tooly
Roar Rookie
It’s more about what the opposition are going to do to Eddie’s team and what they can do to stop them . There is no specific plan that covers all opponents . Best to tighten , defence and discipline then play as Robbie Deans said : What’s in front of you . A big mobile pack going forward would be a good start . Valentini 8 , Samu 7 , Holloway 6 , Skelton 5 and Frost 4 . No rag dolls . White / Fines , Quadie / Lolisio , Kerevi / Paisami , Ikatua / Peres , Wright , Petaia Kelloway / Gorgeouson .