In a Rugby World Cup year, rugby proponents flock to predict winners and justify reasons for their team’s impending glory.
I am no different – except that not only have I formed a habit of picking a winner, but also an underdog. They need not necessarily win the tournament, but they are a team that has the power to do exceptional things.
In 2015, my favourite was, of course, New Zealand. But my underdog was Ireland. I had seen snippets in the lead-up to the tournament that showed the Irish could deliver a rousing performance and topple any of the top five teams on their day. However, I was left disappointed after their underwhelming quarter-final showing against Argentina, despite all the theoretical pieces to make a considerable run.
Four years later, and while my chosen underdog was Japan, Ireland once again proved their validity as a Rugby World Cup contender in the lead-up to the tournament – notching wins over the All Blacks and a Six Nations title. But once again, it was not enough – they underdelivered on rugby’s most important stage.
Twice, in two campaigns, have the Irish failed to execute.
It is not a secret Irish fans or punters aim to conceal either, with many questioning whether Ireland had once again ‘peaked too early’ following their series win in New Zealand in 2022.
In the heavily northern hemisphere-dominated game leading up to Rugby World Cup 2023, Leinster’s herculean presence throughout the season has been the talk of the provincial rugby sphere. A European Championship Final at the Aviva? It would have been remiss of me to assume anything but a convincing Leinster victory.
However, much like I felt with Ireland’s underwhelming performance in 2015, I was left disappointed by Leinster’s second-half implosion, which handed La Rochelle back-to-back European titles.
Did La Rochelle win the game? Or did Leinster lose it? I wish not to take anything away from La Rochelle’s performance because it was quite outstanding, but the collapse resembled the infamous performance of the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl 51.
I wonder whether there is more to Leinster’s performance than meets the eye. Is this defeat the start of the usual Irish demise in the lead-up to Rugby World Cup 2023, or could it be a catalyst for Andy Farrell’s men come October?
With 20 Leinster players named in Farrell’s Six Nations-winning squad, the prowess and development of the Leinster club is quite remarkable. In the lead-up, and indeed the first 20-odd minutes of Saturday’s final, Leinster played some blistering rugby.
A combination of the lush Aviva turf and Jamison Gibson-Park’s continued development contributed to the ruck speed and width of Leinster’s attack that rattled opponents all season, including La Rochelle (who were simply blown away by the impressive start seen on Saturday).
Defensively, the line speed and trademark Farrell ‘connectedness’ of the Leinster players were again prevalent in the early stages, rushing and pressuring the known ball carriers of the La Rochelle outfit.
Leinster’s (and potentially Ireland’s) problems lie in their second-half performance. What concerned me was Leinster’s lack of ruthlessness – their ability to squeeze the La Rochelle outfit into submission and dominate the fixture as they had done in the first 20 minutes.
The distinct foot-on-the-brake on the cusp of half-time gave La Rochelle a glimmer of hope. Not a significant one, but enough for them to enter half-time still believing in their ability to mount a comeback in the second half.
(Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)
It makes me wonder whether it is a sign of things to come or a reflection of past shortcomings.
While on the surface, it would seem that Ireland has gone from strength to strength in their 2022/23 performances, the reality is that in pressured situations, they haven’t. They were taken the full 80 minutes by an ill-disciplined (albeit resilient) Australian outfit in late 2022 and secured the 2023 Six Nations in a less than convincing fashion at home, against an English side still finding its footing under Steve Borthwick’s leadership.
Similar to Leinster’s performance over the weekend, when pressure was applied to the Irish team in a do-or-die environment (at home, no less), their performance faltered. There were noticeable holes. Holes that a well-drilled French, South African, or New Zealand team can exploit come October.
However, let there be no mistake: I am not questioning the validity of Ireland’s recent victories, because they have earned them and deserve to be at the top of world rugby. It is no secret that these recent successes have been built on their defensive prowess – their stifling style of play and their ability to withstand pressure and accumulate points when opportunities arise.
It may not be as flashy as the French style of play, but how else can you counter such flair?
The flipside, I suppose, and one that Irish proponents will no doubt argue, is that the defeat grounds Farrell’s men throughout the summer. The disappointment lingers a little longer, and the motivation to prove themselves grows a little bit stronger.
Farrell’s coaching history is no secret, with his instrumental presence in the British and Irish Lions’ series win in 2013 and draw in 2017. In his now-famous ‘hurt arena’ speech leading up to the 2013 Lions series decider, Farrell emphasised the mental shift required among the players to secure a series victory. It was about breaking thought patterns, taking the opposition to the ‘hurt arena,’ and adopting a ruthlessly winning mindset.
(Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
Similar to the Lions at that time, and as Farrell will undoubtedly allude to come September, Ireland’s Rugby World Cup mentality has long been associated with failure and underperformance. But I don’t see the weekend’s hiccup causing an Irish collapse come October.
By virtue of Farrell’s coaching style and ability to call on the inner-mongrel, I think there is too much class in this year’s Ireland outfit to allow for a disappointing result. Whilst other factors including venues and the post-pool stage draw will certainly play a part, Farrell’s men will be ready coming off a long and reflective summer.
Whilst the Leinster performance is most certainly a hole in the Irish sail leading into Rugby World Cup 2023, it is a prime opportunity for the Irish to not only continue applying their stifling physicality to teams, but for Farrell to instil the mental shift required to take them from Rugby World Cup chokers to titleholders.
IrelandsCall
Roar Rookie
Agreed! I think The Roar is awesome but there are many nationalities now reading it because it is one of the best Sport journals I have come across, ergo we need to see more articles like this, more articles on the other teams. If not, it may become an echo chamber all about Australia and New Zealand. I get that it's an Aussie site but cater too to the other teams and their fans. Make the Roar louder! Good article @Jacobbrown
HenryHoneyBalls
Roar Rookie
Yes Ireland would see Australia as a good draw. Probably the ideal one. Australia doesnt have a great recent record v Ireland home and away and they lost their last RWC match v Ireland.
HenryHoneyBalls
Roar Rookie
I find it comical that Sexton is referred to as brittle. You dont play until 38 and get over 100 caps if you are brittle. Especially not at the level he is playing at. Im sensing a bit of fear/jealousy?
Cathal Sheehan
Roar Rookie
Surely the most reasonable thing to do is look at how Ireland smashed everyone in the 6N and won the Grand Slam in empathic fashion.
Cathal Sheehan
Roar Rookie
They have the worst draw but they are the best team in the draw so that shouldnt matter if they play at their best. The rest days don't really matter as the 2 big games in the group Ireland have a 2 week gap between and the rest of the games they can rotate. "One brain slip, from a player or from a ref, and it could all be over before it have even started." Which can be said for any team in the WC.
Cathal Sheehan
Roar Rookie
True but Ireland are the best team on that side of the draw so will back themselves.
Cathal Sheehan
Roar Rookie
I find it strange how there's all talk about Leinster losing a champions cup final by 1 point but ignoring the fact Ireland won the grand slam this year and were probably the most dominant side in the tournament for about 20 years. France, SA, NZL can spend the summer figuring out what Ireland do but by the time they do Ireland will have moved on to the next stage of their development meaning the lessons will be learnt for nothing, Ireland instead of focusing on these teams will focus on themselves just like the best team in the world should. Btw if we are taking the champions cup into account then wouldnt that be a concern for France? The majority of the spine of the French side played for Toulouse in that mauling by Leinster in the SF.
Fox
Roar Guru
Sounds like Wizzfull thinking to me :laughing:
Derek Murray
Roar Rookie
"Did La Rochelle win the game?" Emphatically, yes. By your logic, when Leinster was brilliant in the first half, running up a 17-0 lead in no time at all, La Rochelle was hopeless. This sort of stuff irritates me. Leinster are a great side and they showed how good they can be in this game. La Rochelle is also a great side, albeit with a very different set of skills. They struggled to deal with the pace Leinter played at early but slowly found a way to get possession and field position and then worked really hard to get back into the game. Very few sides could have lived with the power that LR brought to the last 50 minutes of that game. Leinster hung in but were ultimately unable to keep their lead. It was a fine match of contrasting styles and reinforced the message that big teams and forwards tend to win big matches. Can Ireland turn that around in France? Very possibly but if they don't win, it's unlikely to be because they choked. They will have just lost to a better team.
Brendan NH Fan
Roar Rookie
Until Ireland get past the quarter final we will not look past that. This year is harder than any other year as they must play 3 of the top 4 (excluding themselves) and they can only lose 1 game max (but even that could be to 1 too many). There is no reward for winning the group or coming second. Two things that have changed are Ireland now have a squad and are not afraid to be favourites. Even if they lose Sexton, Byrne and Crowley are able replacements. Its not 2015 when they lost all the key players for the Argentina match, and its not 2019 when JS wouldn't allow players talk about the WC and any mistake was reviewed 20 times and the player humiliated so as to not make the mistake again. Plays aren't run off 4 key players but even back up plays like Bealham (another Oz player discarded by the system) are allowed to run key plays. Ireland will get knocked out at the quarterfinal is the view in Ireland because you get less hurt, but the players will go into games against SA, SC, FR/NZ as favourites in their own head which has never happened before and will have beaten every team the last time they played. I Hope that NZ and SA believe the hype that Ireland don't perform in WCs.
FunBus
Roar Rookie
Still think, at this range out, without knowing who will be injured, suspended, have a form dip, find favour with referee etc etc etc, it's 50-50.
Grobu
Roar Rookie
I think the bookies have nailed it : France & NZ, SA, Ireland, Australia, England in that order
Grobu
Roar Rookie
Was you fragile ego hurt somehow ?
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
The B team? LOL! So the A team is the team that got silly lucky wins against OZ and Scotland and drew against a poor poor England team?
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
Against NZ at the moment, it is 70-30 in Irelands favor.
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
So, with your über-critical approach to everything, what team has a chance in the WC? Or is everyone pretty much useless? (that would be a pretty fresh approach).
The Neutral View From Sweden
Roar Guru
Plus Ireland has a better team (and squad) than they ever had before. Several proper world class players (more than any other nation at the moment). Great head coach with great assistants. Knows how to motivate, select, and analyze opponents. They have beaten every top team recently (home, away, and well). No team has a mental edge on them right now. Big buzz around Irish rugby. Confidence is deep and well-earned. Minus They have the worst draw by far; tough group and have less rest days between big games than any other team. One brain slip, from a player or from a ref, and it could all be over before it have even started. Summa summarum: If they win, it will most likely rank as the greatest World Cup win ever, playing more tough teams than anyone has ever done before. Probably too hard for them to go all the way, but if they "slip" in the final or in the group stage already is impossible to call right now (but it is more likely they will "slip" deep into business end, when injuries and mental fatigue becomes major factors).
FunBus
Roar Rookie
I think Ireland might think the Wallabies are the ‘dream team’ to meet in the SF as well, Peter.
Kiwi in EP
Roar Rookie
In the history of international rugby no team has won 5 games against top international teams in 5 weeks. And Ireland will need to do that to win the WC. South Africa, Scotland, 1/4 final, semi final and Final. The problem for Ireland is the 1/4 final both France and NZ will be fresh as they play each other the first week.
Grobu
Roar Rookie
Different teams, different, coaches, different game plans, so why exactly do you thing 3 semi-finalists in the domestic competition is “massively encouraging” for Irish fans? Either you think that domestic form translates to some degree to the international stage, and then I would suggest the emerging pattern of narrow losses is a worry. Or you think it does not, and then I don’t quite see the relevance of URC semi-finals