Super Rugby Report card and 2024 predictions: How the Aussie teams fared and what the future holds

We advance to the Super Rugby semi-finals and the Brumbies remain as Australia’s sole representative. It’s been a hit and miss season for the Australian seasons with more good than bad and a combined record of 30 wins and 40 losses and only the Brumbies winning more than they lost. In this article I review how each side did and what they should be enthusiastic about next season.

Melbourne Rebels – 11th

The Rebels beat the Reds, Waratahs, and Force but finished behind them all. Their fourth victory came against Moana Pasifika. It’s been a difficult season. Not only have wins been hard to come by, but there is the increasing feeling that the Rebels are losing ground rather than making it up. Last year they kept Fijian Drua and Moana Pasifika behind them. This year the Drua have moved ahead and Pasifika are nipping at their heels. It will take a big effort for the Rebels to hold their place let alone think about moving up the table.

The Rebels will add Taniela Tupou from the Reds and Lukhan Salakaia-Loto from Northampton Saints. Salakaia-Loto was exceptional in England, he featured in 24 games this season and his carrying was a massive factor in Northampton’s successful season. Tupou should strengthen the Rebels as well, if he can get on the pitch. The tight-head prop hasn’t played any Super Rugby this season after his Achilles injury.

Carter Gordon has been a genuinely impressive find and he might well be off to France for the World Cup. However, he has been able to rely on Reece Hodge both in the midfield and as the primary kicker at goal. Hodge is off to Bayonne next season and the Rebels have no obvious replacement.

(Photo: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

Overall, it’s been a disappointing season, and, so far, the Rebels have weakened their side for next season.

Western Force – 10th

Two home wins against playoff teams Drua and the Brumbies were the high points. The low point was a 71-10 loss to the Reds in the second week which was sandwiched between two successful matches. The biggest issue was a leaky defence. They conceded 494 points the most in the league apart from the Pasifika. They conceded 40 or more points on six occasions. The other issue was their attack. They scored fewer tries and points than any other teams. Remarkably, that leaky defence and blunt attack turned into five wins, and they could have snuck into a playoff place.

Points difference is a good way of measuring success and removing luck. Rugby is full of luck and a league table, especially one with as few matches as Super Rugby, can change massively depending on who gets the luck. The Force were very lucky. They still only rode that luck to 10th but points difference would suggest they were a worse team than the Rebels.

Their attack is crippled by a lack of creativity. They offloaded fewer than all bar two teams. They carried 40 times more than Fijian Drua but beat 57 fewer defenders. They are in desperate need of someone who can orchestrate the attack. Nic White will come in from the Brumbies and he should help but he can’t do it alone. The arrival of Harry Potter from Leicester Tigers will also help, he made himself a crowd favourite in England. Meanwhile the loss of Tom Robertson will be keenly felt as the Force will have to replace a regular starter on both sides of the scrum.

On balance, I think you’d rather be where the Rebels are than the Force.

Queensland Reds – 8th

The Reds pretty much downed tools after beating the Chiefs in New Zealand in the 12th round. They lost winnable matches at home to the Blues then away to the Highlanders and Drua. They were at least competitive against the Chiefs in the play offs, losing 29-20.

There are a lot of positives for the Reds to take from this season. They need to add more consistency though. They had strong periods; weeks 1-4 they had won two and lost two and weeks 8-12 they won three and lost one. But they also had terrible stretches where they couldn’t find a result. They were competitive against the Rebels, Crusaders, and Brumbies midway through the season but came away with just one point from those three matches.

As it stands, the only squad changes will be Tupou to the Rebels. That is a big loss, although as I mentioned, he hasn’t played this season. I’d expect them to strengthen their scrum, which was an area of weakness in the off-season. I’d also anticipate a really tough pre-season as the Reds try and figure out a way to stop their fourth quarter slide.

(Photo by Albert Perez/Getty Images)

In terms of trajectory, the Reds look to be going up into next season.

NSW Waratahs – 6th

It’s hard to claim the Waratahs did anything other than drop back this year. They finished sixth, same as last year, but they won six games this year, compared to eight last, and had a worse points difference. Most of that came from a holey defence. They conceded 408 points this year, 91 worse than last year.

The other issue was a truly appalling start to the season. They won just one match in the first six games. Six wins in seven matches then turned their season around before they strung three losses together at the end.

They played an incredibly low possession style game. They had just 46% possession across the tournament, the next lowest was 48%. They do win turnovers and I think there is a future for their playing style. However, they need to limit the opportunities they give their opponents. That’s a positive and they are another team who are potentially looking at an upwards trajectory next season. Note, they are losing Michael Hooper, Tolu Latu, and Taleni Seu who have all featured plenty this year. They will not be easy at all to replace and Hooper is irreplaceable both from a leadership and playing perspective.

Brumbies – 4th

The predictions state that the Brumbies’ Super Rugby adventure will end this weekend against the Chiefs. They should take some inspiration from the Reds who beat the Chiefs earlier in the season and only narrowly lost, by nine points, in the playoffs. The Brumbies were well beaten at home by the Chiefs earlier in the season though. Regardless, they can be happy with a season where they have once again made the playoffs.

The Brumbies are great at scoring tries, only the Hurricanes scored more this season. But they could still improve their attack with ball in hand. At the moment, they rely a lot on their maul as the source of their tries. In fact, they have scored more tries from the lineout than any other team. If they can be that clinical when they don’t have a great attacking platform, they could break the New Zealand stranglehold.

The losses of Pete Samu and Nic White are massive, but the Brumbies have young replacements for both. White will probably be replaced by Ryan Lonergan who has plenty of experience. Samu’s role will probably be a job share between Charlie Cale, Rob Valetini, with perhaps a little bit of Luke Reimer thrown in. The Brumbies are well placed to do even better next year, regardless of how well they finish this one!