Round 16 Talking Points: Maroons deserve rare favouritism - but Blues can cause upset, unsung heroes step up for clubs

It’s time for Queensland to finally admit they’re not the underdogs for Origin II with Latrell Mitchell joining Nathan Cleary and Api Koroisau in the NSW casualty ward.

I noticed the bookies’ odds swung from the Blues being the favourites to the underdogs when Mitchell pulled out during the week with his calf injury.

And even though it’s not the way the Maroons like it, they should be favourites judging on how they played in game one at Adelaide, the Blues’ injury problems and the fact that Wednesday’s second Origin is going to be at their “Field of Dreams” (Suncorp Stadium).

Queensland’s spine is more settled and Billy Slater is saying things like ‘we have only just got started and we can get better as a group’ so I think there’s a bit more upside in the way they can play.

The Blues made the Mitchell decision early to give Stephen Crichton the best chance to get ready to play and it looks like they probably had no option but to make that call. 

(Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

From my time in Queensland camps over the years, if you weren’t ready to do a full session on the Sunday before the game, then you weren’t worth the risk.

Monday is a day off and Tuesday is the captain’s run. It’s important that your preparation is spot on and with Cameron Murray and Liam Martin also having their own injury issues, it’s far from an ideal build-up for the Blues. 

I wasn’t surprised that Brad Fittler went with Mitchell Moses to replace Cleary at halfback. 

He was the best candidate given his kicking game is probably the best in the NRL apart from Cleary, in terms of field position and building pressure; and one of the game’s best goal kickers.

Damien Cook and Reece Robson will do a strong job replacing Koroisau’s 80 minutes at hooker, however Fittler splits that up.

For the Blues to win, Moses needs to bring his best kicking game to the arena and Cook and Robson need to muscle up with their ruck defence to stop QLD’s momentum in midfield.

They have to start the game better, particularly with their discipline both in hanging onto the ball and not giving away penalties. The ones that Hudson Young and Tevita Pangai jnr were responsible for in the first match are just coach-killers, especially at Origin. 

If that stuff happens again, they won’t be keeping the crowd quiet and they’ll probably be trailing at half-time and will have a massive mountain to climb.

It’s hard to put a measure on the crowd’s impact as far as points but the Maroons love nothing more than performing in front of their own fans.

The NSW back five has to be superior in bringing the ball back from kicks, including James Tedesco, who was below his best in their 26-18 loss in Origin I.

He’s a champion player. Tedesco and Fittler are the two blokes under the most pressure to get the job done to continue their careers in Origin. 

For the Maroons, I wouldn’t be surprised if Reuben Cotter is a late inclusion in the starting side again, this time at second row – he could play the full 80 again and switch from the edge to the middle when Jeremiah Nanai comes on.

Reuben Cotter. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

Hunt on for Ben to stay at Dragons

Ben Hunt asking for a release at the Dragons is interesting. From my experience in dealing with contracts and trying to get players to agree to deals, the over-riding factor is economics and the strong relationship with the coach.

He accepted this two-year deal that was put to him last October on the understanding Anthony Griffin would be the coach. I can see both sides of the argument and the Dragons are well within their rights to refuse a request for a release by saying they have a binding agreement. 

Hunt’s going to be on less money than his previous deal with St George Illawarra and maybe he doesn’t think that reflects his continued standing in the game as an Origin and Test player even though he’s in the twilight of his career at 33.

And he’s probably not happy with how things have unfolded as far as Griffin getting sacked and the quality of the team he’s got around him. 

(Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)

Stars step up with Origin reps out

There’s been a theme running through the Round 16 matches with key players stepping up with the Origin stars out. 

On Friday night, you could see the Cowboys looked a different team with Jason Taumalolo back after a couple of months out with his knee injury. 

He ran for more than 200 metres, got through plenty of defenders post contact and the rest of the pack fed off the momentum he created.

His last carry for over 25 metres and a quick play the ball was the catalyst for Scott Drinkwater to score on the great solo tries to win a game in Golden Point.

You could tell from the start that the match could have gone either way with all the rep players out on both sides and it took a moment of  Drinkwater brilliance in extra time to finally separate them. 

It was very helpful for the Cowboys that Tom Dearden wasn’t 18th man again for the Maroons because he was important for their cohesion and Jake Granville deserves a mention for getting through 53 tackles at 34 years of age with Robson in Origin camp. 

Dylan Edwards, who was named captain, was enormous for the Panthers and Jack Cogger continues to show he can be a more than handy replacement for Cleary while he’s rehabbing his hammy.

Joey Manu was the player who stepped up in the Roosters’ narrow win over the Knights.

Back in the No.1 jersey, that was his best game since he played so well for the Kiwis at fullback in last year’s World Cup – 300-plus metres and a constant threat to the Knights.

Newcastle didn’t make the most of their red-zone opportunities and that cost them in the end. Bradman Best lost one over the line, Daniel Saifiti got held up and Dane Gagai got pushed into touch. Kaylyn Ponga was outstanding in his effort and was the best player in a beaten side.

The Roosters were more resilient with their defence and even when Luke Keary went off with his broken jaw, their young halfback Sandon Smith filled his role nicely with Drew Hutchison, as he always does, slotting in seamlessly.

No prizes for guessing that Clint Gutherson was Parramatta’s player who took the mantle for the Eels with Moses away in Blues camp.

I know he’s been talked about as perhaps lacking a bit of X-factor but he’s been fantastic this season for Parra.

(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

He was in everything for the Eels in their attack and with Reagan Campbell-Gillard leading the pack up front with Junior Paulo out, they rarely looked troubled.

Manly’s defence was on the brittle side of things. There’s an old rule in footy that the Sea Eagles need to be reminded of – tackle the player with the ball. 

There were some ordinary one on one misses on their goal line, including  Haumole Olakau’atu coming up with a failed attempt to strip the ball rather than using his massive frame to make a tackle.

For the Storm, it was Jahrome Hughes who took the bit between the teeth with no Cameron Munster. 

His decision making and execution was extraordinary. And he had a few willing accomplices in Nick Meaney and Reimis Smith around him, which led to Will Warbrick’s four tries.

There’s not much nice to say about their opponents, except that at long last, poor old Alex Twal finally scored a try after 116 games but apart from that, the Tigers look like they’re back in the doldrums.

And last of all, it was no real surprise to see Nicho Hynes showing his quality for Cronulla after NSW dropped him for Origin II.

He had a few early hiccups but his class prevailed for the Sharks against Canterbury in what was an important win for them after copping a hiding in Melbourne the week before. The Bulldogs were way off the pace again and could be in for a tough end to the season.