'Split squad', 'novice Bok 10': Why this is the Wallabies' best chance to 'exhume the Loftus graveyard'

The Wallabies have a powerful new jersey and a new vibe. Try to rip this armour off the quick strike tank the general is constructing on Coogee Beach and his big ball beasts will bulldoze through you.

Who do you want on your team, Eddie Jones? I asked on our podcast. ‘Tough guys.’

After all the smoke, mirrored or real, there is no place on the rugby planet to test toughness than the High Veldt in South Africa: Pretoria’s Loftus Versfeld. It may be more difficult to win at Eden Park, but the hardness of your pack and target runners is best calibrated in Pretoria.

Yes, the Springboks are dusting off their 2019 campaign plan by jetting the two Damians, the two starting wings, and provocateur-half Faf de Klerk to Auckland early, and key men Eben Etzebeth, Handre Pollard, Jaden Hendrickse and Siya Kolisi are still satisfying the doctors.

But a front row, if Rapport’s reportage is to be believed, of Ox Nche, Bongi Mbonambi, and Frans Malherbe, with former World Player of the Year Pieter-Steph du Toit and form Irish-skilled locks RG Snyman and Jean Kleyn in the second row, muscular crash tackler Marco van Staden at a very closed-minded openside, and Bulls stalwart Duane ‘Thor’ Vermeulen (36) completing the pack, is an excellent benchmark for Jones and his squad to test how their power stacks up.

SEPTEMBER 29: Kurtley Beale of Australia and Andre Esterhuizen of South Africa during the Rugby Championship match between South Africa and Australia at Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium on September 29, 2018 in Port Elizabeth, South Africa. (Photo by Richard Huggard/Gallo Images/Getty Images)

At the first tackle spot in the midfield, Andre ‘the Giant’ Esterhuizen awaits Samu Kerevi’s charges: their collisions will go a long way to deciding the gainline.

If reportage from South Africa’s best news sources is right, the Bok halfbacks will be fleet Cobus Reinach and the form flyhalf in the URC, Manie Libbok; both super talents but they have never played together. Thus, the Wallabies’ veteran combination of Nic White and Quade Cooper would be expected to have a seven to ten-point edge. Jacques Nienaber will name his side on Tuesday, as is his custom; local reports suggest he will choose from Lukhanyo Am (29) or Vermeulen as skipper. Both have routinely captained their clubs.

Vermeulen is probably playing to cement his seat on the plane to France, with the Premiership’s best forward of 2023 Jasper Wiese ensconced in the eight jersey, Kwagga Smith a favourite of the Nienaber-Erasmus regime, Siya Kolisi certain to return, and Evan Roos pushing in, as well, with loose forwards of great quality (Elrigh Louw, Marcell Coetzee, Sikhumbuzo Notshe and Hacjivah Dayimani) unlucky.

BLOEMFONTEIN, SOUTH AFRICA – JUNE 16: England head coach Eddie Jones, (L) shakes hands with South Africa head coach Rassie Erasmus prior to the second test match between South Africa and England at Toyota Stadium on June 16, 2018 in Bloemfontein, South Africa. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

This is the subtext: players and places. Last chance saloon for some; an opening for others.

And yet, even if Erasmus and Jones are two of the trickiest coaches to ever ply the trade, and are certain to value knowledge for the World Cup above winning The Rugby Championship, when the whistle sounds, they’ll both dearly love to win this Test. Jones, in particular, will want to open his second stint at the Wallabies with a maiden win at Loftus, the rarest of scalps.

The problem is that Tests at Loftus tend to choke the oxygen from visiting teams.

Fifteen: this is the average number points the Wallabies have scored in all winless Pretoria Tests. Also, fifteen: the average losing margin at Loftus. This is even worse than the Eden Park Bledisloe Cup loss rate and margin.

If there were ever a chance to exhume the Loftus graveyard it would be this year: first up, split squad, novice at Bok ten, and a newly energised Wallaby coach. The issue may be the pack.

Juan Smith of South Africa on his way to the try line during the Tri Nations match between South Africa and Australia at Loftus Versfeld Stadium on August 28, 2010 in Pretoria, South Africa. (Photo by Lee Warren/Gallo Images/Getty Images)

The Boks were the world’s fourth best team last year, but even when they lost to France, star flanker Anthony Jelonch said in French: “I don’t think we’ve ever played against forwards who are this strong.” This was with du Toit red carded in the first stanza. I showed the quote to Malherbe and his response was tighthead: “Interesting.” Then we went back to meat chat.

The key issues for the Wallabies in 2022 were not scoring points: Australia looked dangerous in most matches and went toe to toe with the top four teams. No, it was a lack of toughness in the “revenge games” beginning with wide ruck cleaning, first up tackles, set piece, and scramble ‘D’.

The Pumas, the Boks, and the All Blacks won the return fixtures going away: the Pumas scoring seven tries in San Juan to avenge their opening loss, the Boks in Sydney handing the Wallabies a dispiriting 8-24 loss at the new Sydney Football Stadium after this best Test of the year the week before, and a 26-point thumping at Eden Park nine days after ‘le grand spectacle de merde’ in Melbourne. Mental fragility will have been clear to Jones from those debacles.

The ultimate test of cerebral fitness is not in Bangkok; it is in Arcadia, in tough Tshwane. Dave Rennie only faced the Boks in Australia, winning 3 of 4, one by a last minute kick from Cooper, but the Wallabies have won just over 65 percent of 43 Tests in Australia so this is the mean.

(Photo by Matt Roberts/Getty Images)

In the Republic, that figure drops under 22 percent and as noted, to zero at Loftus, ever. 50,000 fans will welcome Jones with an open heart and lungs; he is a respected figure in South Africa, having helped local headman Jake White lift the William Webb Ellis trophy in 2007 with a power-based attack plan. In addition, he has a bit of the loose-lipped rascal about him, which appeals to full bore fans like Pretorians, who are just barely hinged on game day.

France’s superb defensive coach, Shaun Edwards, described Loftus as “the hardest place to win a rugby match in the world.” Australia amens.

The green-and-gold rugby rivalry has always had the volume and evenness (49-3-40) to be more bitter. Perhaps it is heating up, with the added spice of Rassiegate, Eddie hammering sledges, and the recent history of bitterness.

The last time these two teams squared off, there was niggle from start to finish. Even after tries were scored, the handbags were full, heavy, and swinging. Allan Alaalatoa, James Slipper, Rob Valetini, and perhaps Jed Holloway and Fraser McReight will repeat from that wet night at Allianz, along with Dave Porecki and Pete Samu, but they will want to achieve parity or better against the Bok pack, which may have only four of the thirteen who won.

The keys on the High Veldt will be as they ever have been: the Wallaby fullback cannot have an off day, the pack cannot lose the lineout badly, and contrary to Jones’ recent quick-strike pronouncements, an arm wrestle is exactly what the Wallabies should want. The Boks score at Loftus. A lot. From the counter, from lineouts, from the slow poison of momentum rugby.

In my recent series, comparing each position to a mastiff or a bear or a robber or rock star, I looked at the Wallabies’ depth and quality across the pitch, and four question areas loom: hooker, lock, blindside, and fullback.

Unfortunately for the Wallabies, the Boks will bring strength in exactly those places; but this is probably the best thing for Eddie’s sprint to France. He needs to know who has the tough mind to hit jumpers in a cauldron, the tough body to mix it up with towering Vikings, the Test animal body to go to war against PSDT, and whether Tom Wright is an alpha wolf or will fail the beta Test.