Is Stuart Dew a dead man walking, or a potential premiership winner?

The jungle drums have begun to become deafening in their calls for Stuart Dew to be fired by the Gold Coast Suns, with Caroline Wilson stating that Dew will let go before the end of the season.

“It’s my firm belief that Stuart Dew’s days at the Gold Coast Suns are numbered, and in fact he could be gone as early as by the end of this month,” she said on Nine’s Footy Classified.

But are these calls justified?

Ken Hinkley’s position at Port Adelaide is fiercely contested, even after stringing together a 12-game winning streak during his time at the helm.

Leon Cameron left Greater Western Sydney after nine years, whilst Brett Ratten (four years at St Kilda) and Ben Rutten (two years at Essendon) were given significantly less time to win a premiership. With this wild variation in tenure, how long should a coach be given to survive and thrive in their pursuit of the holy grail?

Looking back at the history of the AFL shows some interesting trends. Since 1990 when the VFL became the AFL, 21 individual coaches have won a premiership out of 33 years. For the purposes of this article, three coaches and four years – Alan Joyce in 1991, Kevin Sheedy in 1993 and 2000 and David Parkin in 1995 – will not be included as they had won premierships in the VFL and as such were not first-time winners.

Likewise, the two premierships won by Leigh Matthews in 2001 and Mick Malthouse in 2010 are also not counted as they had won at previous clubs. Finally, the years in which a coach won their second or subsequent premiership – Mick Malthouse in 1994, Malcom Blight in 1998, Dennis Pagan in 1999, Leigh Matthews in 2002/03, Mark Thompson in 2009, Alastair Clarkson in 2013-2015, Damien Hardwick in 2019-2020 and Chris Scott in 2022 – are also not included.

Trent Cotchin and Damien Hardwick celebrate Richmond’s premiership win (Photo by Ryan Pierse/AFL Media/via Getty Images )

This leaves us with 15 premierships were won by first-time coaches. So, how do the chances of current coaches stack up to recent history?

First, we look at the coaches who already have climbed the mountain.

We can consider Chris Scott (Geelong) safe, being not only the reigning premiership coach but also one of only eight coaches with multiple premierships. A third premiership in 2023 will put him in the exclusive club of Hardwick and Matthews (three) and Clarkson (four) in the AFL era.

Another premiership for Alastair Clarkson (North Melbourne) would see him join an even more exclusive group, with only Leigh Matthews (Collingwood and Brisbane) and Mick Malthouse (West Coast and Collingwood) winning premierships at two clubs. He would also join only four other coaches (Jack Worrall and Checker Hughes (five), Norm Smith (six) and Jock McHale (eight) as the only coaches with more than four premierships and the first since 1964.

Adam Simpson (West Coast), Luke Beveridge (Western Bulldogs), Simon Goodwin (Melbourne) and John Longmire (Sydney) are looking to join Clarkson and Scott as current multiple premiership winning coaches. In the AFL era, Sheedy, Clarkson and Scott are the only coaches not to win their second premiership within four years of the first one with the same club, which indicates Goodwin as the only one likely to join the club.

But what about the coaches without a premiership?

For Brad Scott (Essendon), Ross Lyon (St Kilda) and Michael Voss (Carlton), whilst we talk about coaches being better the second or third time around, history is against them. Only Mick Malthouse with West Coast and Malcom Blight with Adelaide have won premierships after coaching at another club without winning a premiership.

Whilst Blight was able to take Geelong to the Grand Final in 1989, 1992 and 1994; Malthouse’s best finish was third in 1985, so luckily for Scott and Voss Grand Final experience is not a prerequisite when trying a second time.

No caretaker coach has ever won a premiership, for obvious reasons, and given Richmond’s ladder position it seems Adam McQualter is unlikely to change this.

For those with their first club, six of the 15 premierships were won by coaches within their first three years. Of Craig McRae (Collingwood), Adam Kingsley (Greater Western Sydney) and Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn), McRae is best placed to join this group with Collingwood sitting top of the ladder.

Collingwood coach Craig McRae. (Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Matthew Nicks and Justin Longmuir are completing their fourth years with Adelaide and Fremantle respectively. Forty-seven per cent of coaches won their first premiership after their fourth year, so both are well placed historically to remain a chance to win a premiership.

For Chris Fagan (Brisbane), the odds narrow dramatically. He would join Thompson and Hardwick to win a premiership after seven years or more with the one club. Interestingly, both became multiple premiership-winning coaches. So, breaking the drought for Fagan could be the first of many.

If Ken Hinkley was to win this year, he will become the first coach ever in the AFL era to win after 10 years with the only club they’ve coached for. The only person to have won a premiership after 10 years was Malthouse with Collingwood, but that was with his third club.

Well, what about Dew? Unless he can pull a rabbit out of his hat, the Suns are not winning in 2023. This would complete his sixth season in charge without a premiership, at which point 87 per cent of coaches who went on to win one had already won it.

Of the two who hadn’t, both had coached in finals prior. So, Dew, provided Gold Coast are unable to make a late charge and make the finals, would become the first coach to win a premiership after more than six seasons without having previously making finals.

It is a cutthroat world in AFL coaching and so often decisions are made on emotions, with Ratten being fired months after being extended coming immediately to mind. But for Dew, the cold hard facts remain that the Suns would be better off cutting ties with him.