Flem’s Verdict: Aussies earned the Ashes urn well before rain put a dampener on England's chances

Ashes retained – we’ll take it, don’t you worry about that.

When you’re playing cricket in England, very rarely do you get a series that’s not affected by weather. 

England couldn’t do too much more to win this Test but Australia got themselves 2-0 up in the series and they were due a bit of the rub of the green. 

The Poms should have won either of those first couple of matches to get themselves into a position where they didn’t need to win every Test of the last three and the weather gods had to look after them.

This series comes down to defining moments and if Ben Stokes had taken Joe Root off an over earlier at Edgbaston when Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon were trying to bat Australia to victory, maybe things would be a lot different.

Pat Cummins celebrates after hitting the winning runs in Birmingham. (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)

Cummins sensed the moment then and took down the part-timer for a big over and all of a sudden the Aussies went from a spot of bother eight down to a position where they just had to bat sensibly to close out the win. And they did. 

There’s also the fact that the ECB has pushed the Ashes forward in the calendar to fit in The Hundred tournament. If the Test series was later in the summer, maybe the weather wouldn’t come into the equation as much. 

The major swing in momentum to the home side midway through this series has been from a combination of two factors – Nathan Lyon tearing his calf at Lord’s and Mark Wood coming into the England line-up.

Lyon has proved that he’s now the most indispensable member of this Australian team with the way he balances the attack, more so than Cameron Green as the all-rounder because Mitchell Marsh has done so well in his spot. 

If he had bowled in the second innings at Lord’s we would have won that game emphatically and probably won the third match as well if Lyon was in the side. 

Nathan Lyon is helped from the field. (Photo by Mike Egerton/PA Images via Getty Images)

There has been some excellent cricket from both sides but also some baffling tactical decisions.

The data tells both teams that when the tailenders come in you should bombard them with short-pitched bowling but why can’t they just bowl them out?

James Anderson is a No.11 for a reason and the Aussies let England get another 60 more than they should have when he had his partnership with Jonny Bairstow on day three. 

They finally got him LBW because he bowled full at the stumps.

Wood’s been so good at ripping through the Aussie tail because he pitches it up for the most part and then slips in a bouncer as the surprise weapon.

Australia don’t have someone of his lightning pace – Lance Morris is injured at the moment but could get there so he’s worth a look in the home summer. 

Mark Wood celebrates dismissing Travis Head. (Photo by Clive Mason/Getty Images)

Australia really underachieved on day one at Manchester. For all the chat about how unlucky Cummins was to lose another toss, that pitch was a beauty for batting first and 450 should have been the par score.

That’s been a bat-first pitch for 150 years so to be bowled out early on day two for 317 was well below where the Aussies should have been. 

It was a very underwhelming total given the number of starts the batters got, from David Warner, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith, Travis Head, Marsh, Green and Alex Carey. Someone needed to go large. 

If they’d got 450, it would have been a battle to lose that Test. England were steady but didn’t bowl particularly well. 

We then saw the best of Bazball when Zak Crawley went off for his 189. He epitomises Bazball in that when he comes off, he looks spectacular.

Australia’s bowling was below par. I thought with Cummins having nine days off in between the Tests that he’d be re-energised but that’s as flat as I’ve seen him. 

Mitchell Starc couldn’t get much swing, Josh Hazlewood did well but they missed Lyon as a point of difference.

Marsh has become the blueprint of where we want Green to get to. He was so important with a half-century in the first innings and then in the second he occupied the crease for a long time when we needed him to stick around. 

It was easily England’s best performance of the series. Joe Root looked like he was never going to get out until he was unlucky to get one that kept low, Moeen Ali at No.3 worked even though I thought that was a massive gamble leading into the game and Bairstow finally came good with the bat with one of those explosive innings he’s known for producing. 

They tried to let him get to a hundred and he only finished one run short when Anderson was dismissed but did they need to bat until they were 592? In the first Test they declared before day one and they’ve gone the other way this time and probably waited a fraction too late. 

It was bizarre that they didn’t try to get through their overs quicker because they knew the rain was coming. England only bowled at 12 overs an hour in the second innings so they’ve cost themselves another 10 overs where they could have been taking wickets while the conditions were still good.

They were unlucky with more than a day’s play getting washed out but it can happen.

I remember playing an Ashes Test at the Gabba in 1998 when Stuart MacGill was bowling us to victory on the final day and it got washed out, and that saved England. That’s just cricket, at times.

Pat Cummins bowls as Ben Stokes watches on. (Photo by Alex Davidson/Getty Images)

It doesn’t just happen in England, it happens all over the world and there’s nothing you can do about it unless you start playing in indoor stadiums.

Australia have retained the Ashes because when the series was alive they won the opening two matches and could have been 3-0 up.

They’ll want to win 3-1 by getting back in the winner’s circle at The Oval.

The two all-rounder strategy didn’t quite pan out so Todd Murphy has to play so I’d be bringing him in for Green. 

He did well in India and The Oval should provide some turn while Green just seems to be an excess player with the way he’s batting and Marsh can pick up the slack with his bowling.

England captain Ben Stokes after day five in Manchester. (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)

Cummins waited too long to give him a bowl at Manchester. He can swing the new ball so he should be coming on while it’s still got a bit of shine.

England have got a big call to make on Anderson after he’s only taken four wickets at 76. They’re desperate to win but the pitches they’ve been rolling out don’t suit him and Josh Tongue would be a better bet for mine. 

People say it’s now going to be an anti-climax at the end of the series but after the way Old Trafford went down, I don’t think the players think that and I reckon the fans will still be heavily engaged because there’s a lot riding on the result.

If England level at 2-2 it legitimises Bazball and shows they’ve closed the gap between the two teams. 

We’ve got a few older players who won’t be around when the Poms head Down Under in 2025-26 and the fifth Test is also the last chance for a few of those veterans to say they won an Ashes series in England so there’s still plenty on the line.