Are the 'Colliwobbles' back if the Magpies fall short this year?

Collingwood is Australia’s most supported football club of any code, a team that has won 15 VFL/AFL premierships since 1897 from its record 84 finals appearances.

But the Magpies’ success is complicated by its poor ratio of grand final results over the years, leading recent generations of rival fans to often refer to the ‘Colliwobbles’.

The ‘Colliwobbles’ were first coined by former Magpie great and commentator Lou Richards as a reference to the period between 1958 and 1990, when Collingwood lost six grand finals. Since 1955, Collingwood has won just 3 of its last 17 grand final appearances after 12 wins from 25 from 1901 to 1953.

(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

VFL/AFL data shows Collingwood has lost 27 of its 42 grand final appearances, a ratio far worse than other successful Victorian rivals: Essendon have 16 flags from 30 grand final appearances, Carlton 16 from 29, Richmond 13 from 25, Melbourne 13 from 18, Hawthorn 13 from 19 and Geelong 10 from 20.

But given we are in 2023, with Collingwood currently the short priced favourite ($2.75) to win the flag, sitting top of the ladder with just three losses with four home and away rounds to go, what about the teams who win the minor premiership and the grand final in the same year?

Collingwood’s historical record since 1897 is not good, with just 9 grand final victories after winning 19 minor premierships, but still similar to the other most successful Victorian clubs: Essendon 11 flags from 17; Carlton 11 from 17; Geelong 7 from 15; Richmond 5 from 9; and Hawthorn 5 from 9.

Only Melbourne has an incredible record of 9 grand final victories after winning 10 minor premierships.
But what of the AFL years since 1990 where the competition has become much more competitive due to the draft system, salary cap and a greater number of teams, a period where Collingwood has won two of its six grand final appearances?

Results since 1990 show that winning the minor premiership and the grand final in the same season is more difficult, with just 11 doubles from the past 33 seasons (33 per cent), compared to 54 times of the 92 seasons (around 59 per cent) from 1897 to 1989 (including 11 times between 1970 and 1989).

Since 1990, the minor premiership and grand final double has been achieved by Essendon (1993 and 2000), West Coast (1994 and 2006), Carlton (1995), Port (2004), Geelong (2007 and 2022), Collingwood (2010), Hawthorn (2013) and Melbourne (2021).

Those not winning the flag after winning the minor premiership are Essendon (1990, 1999, 2001); West Coast (1991), Geelong (1992, 2008 and 2019), Sydney (1996, 2014 and 2016), St Kilda (1997 and 2009), North Melbourne (1998), Port Adelaide (2002, 2003, 2020), Adelaide (2005 and 2017), Collingwood (2011), Hawthorn (2012), Fremantle (2015), and Richmond (2018).

Since 1999, 7 minor premiers have missed the grand final altogether: Essendon (1999), Port Adelaide (2002, 2003 and 2020); Adelaide (2005); Fremantle (2015); and Geelong (2018).

From 1897-1990, VFL minor premiers only missed making the grand final on just 8 occasions. An incredible home and away season does not guarantee success. In 2008, Geelong matched Essendon’s 2000 home and away feat of 21 wins and just one loss, but unlike Essendon they lost the grand final to Hawthorn who had won 17 home and away games.

(Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Quite simply, in the tough AFL competition that has existed since 1990, what matters is making the top four. Eleven grand final winners finished 2nd after the home and away season, 7 finished 3rd and 2 finished 4th.

Only Adelaide and Western Bulldogs won premierships when finishing 5th and 7th after the home and away season in 1998 and 2017.

So for Collingwood, who have already lost to other top four sides in Melbourne and Brisbane and in the last fortnight barely beat the 2nd placed Port Adelaide then lost to 7th place Carlton, their premiership prospects are hardly certain in line with events of the past 33 AFL seasons.

As in any other year, luck with injuries, peaking at the right times and rising to the occasion are all crucial factors that often explain premiership success.

One has only to remember 1975, when the minor premier Hawthorn beat North Melbourne three times prior to the grand final, including the semi-final two weeks earlier by 11 points, yet were pulverised by the Kangaroos by 55 points in the grand final.

Nevertheless, Collingwood’s top game has been the most exciting of all the clubs this year and their tremendous will to win stands them in a great position to go all the way.

If they don’t win the flag, it would be unfair to describe their late season demise as another example of the Colliwobbles, given that the AFL is a very tough competition to win and finishing top of the ladder has much less relevance these days.