The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions Round 21: With elimination finals galore, who keeps their September dream alive?

Yikes.

Not too many rounds in recent history have been as difficult to tip as Round 20 was – and as a result, if you even scraped a 4 last week, you actually did well.

Things should be back to normal (as much as they can be in this ludicrous season) for this weekend, with just about every game carrying a comfortable favourite and the prospect of upsets dulled somewhat – though you can be sure there will be one or two crammed in there somewhere.

The real focus of this round, though, is that we’ll likely be finally able to start writing a few teams off: it looms as season over for Richmond or the Western Bulldogs on Friday night, for (unlikely as a loss is for them) Essendon on Saturday, for Adelaide or Gold Coast, and for Geelong and Sydney in blockbuster Saturday night clashes against teams in Port Adelaide and GWS whose FINALS chances aren’t on the line, but who have bigger goals for themselves this season to keep on track for.

It’s set to be another crazy week – but just how crazy it will be, who could possibly say?

Tim Miller

Last week: 3

Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Adelaide, Collingwood, Geelong, GWS, Melbourne, Carlton, Brisbane

Well, my reverse-jinx of the Bulldogs was working pretty well until it wasn’t!

Somehow, amazingly, my 3 on the weekend was the equal-best score of our expert tipping comp – it’s been that sort of year.

This round feels much easier to tip, so I can’t wait to get them all wrong again.

Having seen the Dogs lose anyway despite my best tipping efforts, I might as well bite the bullet and back them in to knock over Richmond. This is such a crucial game, and there’s no way they’d win if Tom Lynch were fit with a just about nonexistent backline – but he’s out, Liam Jones is back in, and having knocked over the Tigers at the MCG earlier this year, there’s enough reason to back in my team even though it screams ‘danger game’.

Disappointingly, Saturday sees the day’s best two games – and probably the best two of the round – crammed next to each other in the night session. That means we’ll need to sit through Essendon poleaxing West Coast, Adelaide continuing Gold Coast’s torment in South Australia (they’ve not won in the state since their first game there back in 2011), and Collingwood taking care of a gritty but outclassed Hawthorn before getting to the good stuff.

It should be worth the wait, though – I’m far from convinced tipping Geelong is right, but despite their loss to Fremantle there last week, I simply can’t bring myself to tip against them at the Cattery. GWS, too, face a mighty tough challenge in the form of a resurgent Swans team farewelling the great Lance Franklin, but having watched them overturn a 35-point deficit last week against… *starts sobbing uncontrollably*… I’m starting to become convinced they will never lose again.

Melbourne to beat North Melbourne by as much as they please on Alastair Clarkson’s coaching return starts us off Sunday, before an injury-plagued Carlton take on St Kilda in a season-defining match for both. I half feel like the Saints, who have basically been written off as a finalist despite still sitting fifth, have an upset in them, given how many midfielders are out for the Blues; still, I thought the same of them when they played Gold Coast a few weeks ago, and paid the price for my faith. Carlton for me.

And lastly, I did something similar and picked Fremantle to beat Sydney at home two weeks ago, and they let me down badly. So for all they achieved in knocking over Geelong in Geelong, it’s the Lions for me.

Richmond legend Jack Riewoldt. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)

Dem Panopoulos

Last week: 2

Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Adelaide, Collingwood, Geelong, Sydney, Melbourne, Carlton, Fremantle

Before we go around the circle, let’s agree that last week never happened, okay?

A tipping nightmare was a viewer’s dream as upset after upset fell upon us in the best possible way.

It probably means that despite a few epic games, this round will be anticlimactic. Let’s hope it’s not.

Friday night is only a game of slight importance for both the Bulldogs and Tigers, with half a game separating them and the race for a finals spot even more insane than usual. Usually, a defence being undermanned in the way the Bulldogs’ backline is hurts them, but the Tigers don’t exactly have a potent target in attack. The game being at Marvel Stadium swings it the home team’s way.

Essendon will get back on the winners’ list in strong fashion against West Coast and the need to make up some percentage will be crucial. 

The Suns have still never won at Adelaide Oval, which is a shame. Remarkably, both them and the Crows have won the same number of games, which obviously puts the job of Matthew Nicks and a bunch of other coaches on the line. Adelaide keeps its finals hopes alive in the end here, but it’ll be a fun game.

Hypothetically, the Hawks *could* beat Collingwood. It’s just that the Magpies had their loss last week and won’t be happy about it. Bad luck, Hawthorn.

What an enormous game we’re getting Saturday night. The Cats have to win as they push for September, but the Power are on a downward spiral at the moment and are missing two important defenders. I still think they’re the second-best team in the league with the Demons fast approaching, but tipping Geelong feels the safer pick here.

Haven’t the Swans just come from the clouds to sit in 10th ? On the back of Buddy’s retirement, they’ll be fired up to pay tribute to their icon, and the slight smell of an upset against the in-form Giants is floating around. I can’t keep tipping the favourites, like I will with Melbourne and Carlton on Sunday to knock over North Melbourne and St Kilda.

You all know by now I would love to tip Fremantle against the Lions, particularly after last week’s results. It’s a test away from home for this Brisbane team, but they really shouldn’t falter in the same way the Cats did. Yet the humour in it would be great, which is really what tipping is all about. Go Freo!

(Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Cameron Rose

Last week: 2

Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Adelaide, Collingwood, Geelong, GWS, Melbourne, Carlton, Brisbane

Two last week – yikes. Let’s never speak of it again and move on.

I’m officially one more loss away from writing off the Bulldogs – and Friday night against Richmond is exactly the sort of game this team tends to lose. Given that, I’m baffled by the Tigers resting Dustin Martin, and can’t help wondering whether they’ll regret that move in a match they probably need to win to make finals.

Essendon will wallop a West Coast outfit who I’m expecting will shut up shop now that they’ve had their drought-breaking win; Adelaide should be beating a Touk Miller-less Suns at home, a venue Gold Coast have never won at; and Collingwood will need to shrug off Finn Maginness’ Nick Daicos tag but should do so, even if I have some doubts that this will be as comfortable a win as 1st over 16th should be.

I’m sticking with home ground advantage in two tight games on Saturday night: Tom Hawkins’ injury is cancelled out by Aliir Aliir also being out for Geelong and Port, but while Mark Blicavs is just as irreplaceable as those two and the Cats are no longer unbeatable at home, I can’t help but feel the Power might have peaked too early.

Up north, this might be the most important Sydney Derby ever outside the two finals. The Giants can take one step towards a home elimination final, while the Swans are one loss away from the cliff. I like GWS here, though; the Toby Greene factor was huge in the Derby earlier this year, and with no Dane Rampe there’s no real match-up for him.

Sunday gets progressively better as it goes: Melbourne will do a number on North for the second time this year, St Kilda will finally crumble against Carlton (surely it’s coming, right?) before a genuinely interesting match to finish off the round in Perth.

Usually you’d feel comfortable picking a team at home if they’d just knocked over Geelong in Geelong, but Fremantle have been weird this year, and Brisbane’s midfield is going to be far tougher than a Blicavs-less Cats. Lions to win, Dockers to just about lock up the bottom four.

Ben Keays. (Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

Liam Salter

Last week: 3

Western Bulldogs, Essendon, Adelaide, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, GWS, Melbourne, Carlton, Brisbane

So, last week was a mess. This week looks no easier. No time to mess around – let’s immediately get into it. 

If you’d asked me before last weekend, the Doggies would be headed into a relatively easy three-week stretch to secure their flagging top eight chances – this clash coming before the Eagles and Hawks.

A Giant (pun intended) upset and gallant Richmond effort later, however, and this screams danger game – one the Dogs know they likely can’t lose. I don’t think they will, and tip them with the fear I’m somehow jinxing Tim’s team. 

Some of Saturday’s clashes are easy-ish to pick: the Dons should keep their slim finals chances alive with a win over the Eagles (the headlines will be glorious if this upset happens, though); the Pies have an inevitable loss in hand and shouldn’t have trouble dealing with a tiring Hawks outfit; and despite the Suns being absolutely incredible last week, they stink in Adelaide, making the Crows a much easier tip to choose. 

Saturday gets harder under lights. Fresh off Lance Franklin’s retirement, the Swans know this is a crucial clash in their hunt for finals; the catch being, they’re up against their younger sibling in the Giants, who have won seven in a row. Adam Kingsley’s men are an increasingly impressive outfit, and despite thinking this is the type of game they’d lose, I’m going them in a thriller. I can’t wait.

If the Giants are rising, Port are (kind of) falling. The club has lost three straight and now face an angry Geelong outfit at home. All things being equal, I’d be going the Cats to bounce back, but losing two integral players – Tom Hawkins and Mark Blicavs – to hamstring injuries isn’t ideal, and the Power should exploit this to earn a vital win. 

Sunday is worryingly easy. The Kangaroos are the worst team in the competition everywhere but the ladder – for now? – and have little chance of upsetting the Demons to open the day’s matches.

The Saints – yep, still in the eight – are clinging on despite very little optimism from pundits, especially with Carlton’s resurgence meaning Ross Lyon’s team start this one with long odds. I’m officially yet begrudgingly back on the Blues’ bandwagon – this is theirs as the Saints’ collapse accelerates from here on out.

Fremantle fulfilled their tendency to overperform in Geelong, and now return home to face the Lions. Chris Fagan’s men were frustrated last week, which makes this a little daunting for Freo – expect the Lions to come out furious.

Michael Walters. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)