Kiwi View: This All Black team can win the World Cup but is it better than 2019?

By Jamie Wall / Expert

Thirty-six names, a 24 hour fight and (hopefully) seven games. The first part of that equation has been entered for the All Blacks as they prepare to go and retake the World Cup off the back of four straight wins in 2023, but the feeling is that the real work starts now.

It’s not so much a question of who has been picked, because really there’s not a huge amount of surprise in the squad. That is a reason for optimism in itself – the squad is settled, it has been for a while and it feels like the woes from last year in particular feel like a long time ago now.

So, time to start planning the parade? Not quite. One bad habit crept back in on the weekend, namely a slow start that almost cost them. Had Tate McDermott or Pone Fa’amausili scored, the battle back uphill will be a lot steeper.

Richie Mo’unga kicked the All Blacks to victory at Forsyth Barr Stadium on August 05, 2023 in Dunedin. (Photo by Peter Meecham/Getty Images)

The game was won by a big scrum that led to Richie Mo’unga’s penalty, but with no disrespect to the Wallabies, the All Blacks are going to face harder tests at set piece that won’t result in that outcome very often. So the importance of setting the tone early and holding onto the ball is imperative.

The reason why All Black fans can get excited is that even though there is an injury concern to one big name player, the top XV that Ian Foster will pick are very much in form and playing good footy.

Former coach Steve Hansen remarked over the weekend that the team is shaping up to be better than the one he took to Japan four years ago. He’s definitely correct about that in a results sense so far, the Bledisloe Cup series was split 1-1 after the Wallabies sensationally drubbed the All Blacks by a record score, in a Test where Scott Barrett was sent off. The All Blacks returned the favour a week later, but while Ian Foster’s present day version ran the risk of dropping another test on the weekend, they held their nerve for a tense 23-20 win.

All Blacks coach Ian Foster named 18 forwards and 15 backs in his 33-man World Cup squad. (Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)

Hansen’s All Blacks also drew a game with the Springboks that year, an evening that saw neither team wanting to do particularly much as they were playing the opening match of the World Cup shortly after. There was certainly a different feeling that season, given that All Black fans were a lot easier to please given that the World Cup still resided in NZ Rugby headquarters.

So, let’s have a look at the squad that Foster has named and see why Hansen has pumped up his old mate Foster’s tyres:

Props
Ethan de Groot, Tyrel Lomax, Fletcher Newell, Tamaiti Williams, Ofa Tuungafasi, Nepo Laulala.

The front row is an area that was a problem last year, that was of course until it was solved by the outstanding form of de Groot and Lomax. On the evidence of the first four Tests of the year, those two are clearly the top of the rotation, with Newell able to make a successful return from injury just in time for the second Bledisloe Cup game. Williams had issues in his first start, but will be used against the lesser pool opponents.

Hookers
Codie Taylor, Dane Coles, Samisoni Taukei’aho

Probably the easiest selection for Foster was the well-balanced mix of solidity (Taylor), promise (Taukai’aho) and experience (Coles). Any of the three could be counted on to start a knockout match, although Taukai’aho did have a couple of lineout wobbles in Dunedin.

Locks
Scott Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Samuel Whitelock, Tupou Vaa’i

Here’s where it gets interesting because Retallick is once again injured, so while Barrett and Whitelock is a more than decent replacement pairing, it puts an awful lot of pressure on the inexperienced Vaa’i.

(Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)

Loose forwards
Sam Cane (c), Ardie Savea, Luke Jacobson, Dalton Papalii, Shannon Frizell

Jacobson may well be the key here, as his bulk can take a bit of the ball carrying duties away from Savea. That might leave Papalii out of the top 23, since Vaa’i can cover both lock and blindside.

Halfbacks
Aaron Smith, Cam Roigard, Finlay Christie
Based on the selections of Roigard and Christie, Smith will likely be on the park for as long as possible. Which is the way it’s been most of the time anyway in his career, so that’s nothing new.

First fives
Richie Mo’unga, Damian McKenzie, Beauden Barrett
Mo’unga will start the big games, Barrett at fullback and McKenzie will be wearing 23. It’s as simple as that.

Midfield
Anton Lienert-Brown, Jordie Barrett, Rieko Ioane, David Havili
Barrett and Ioane are the nailed-on starters, but Havili’s return from injury and utility value could force him into the top side ahead of Lienert-Brown.

Outside backs
Caleb Clarke, Leicester Fainga’anuku, Will Jordan, Emoni Narawa, Mark Telea

This is the only odd part of Foster’s selection, which at least tracks with his odd way he’s treated the back three so far this year. Clarke’s good showing in Melbourne presumably got him in ahead of Shaun Stevenson, who went from not being picked at all to starting Bledisloe II. You could argue there are too many outside backs, but given Fainga’anuku can cover midfield that’s probably why he gets in. The Crusaders flyer has had everything fall into place for him in 2023: first signing a big money deal with Toulon and then making the All Blacks anyway.

Better than 2019? There’s no Kieran Read, Sonny Bill Williams, Ryan Crotty or Ben Smith, but you get the feeling that this side could be good enough. Just don’t say it too loud.

The Crowd Says:

2023-08-12T02:31:44+00:00

One Eye

Roar Rookie


I seem to recall that was mortlock who took that pass who went through the 13 channel all game catching Rangi out of position a lot...

2023-08-11T23:33:55+00:00

CW Moss

Roar Rookie


Hang on, that’s a dubious comparison - 2019 the ABs lost in a SF. What about a comparison to 2015. Sir Steve was almost acutely embarrassed backing Fossie into his current role.

2023-08-10T22:31:37+00:00

Old Bugger

Roar Rookie


Gees Brendan - this is what you should've written in response to Jonty and Harry's comments earlier in this blog, rather than rant off about the might and power, of your favoured team. But, I totally agree Brendan - it would be madness indeed, for the Bokke to peak for the RC especially when, they sent half their team to one location while the others played at home and then repeated that, by sending half the team to another location while the others, stayed home and didn't play. That is definitely ensuring, the team won't suffer any madness....!! But, have you really woken up Brendan.....?? I am concerned that you may be walking or is it typing, in your sleep mate.

2023-08-10T22:21:29+00:00

Old Bugger

Roar Rookie


Pull your head out of the sand Brendan. There's only one game plan the Bokke bring against the ABs and its called "The Bomb Squad". Well, we all saw that squad 3 weeks ago and boy, didn't it "Bomb". I think from memory, Mapimpi was lost in space - the locks forgot to fire and when they did in H2, they then ran out of steam, set-piece is measured by how much of your own ball is lost and, what you do with the ball you win while the break-down in H2, was a shambles cos the ref couldn't keep up with play, while suffering cramp. I'm sure everyone will be hoping the Bokke, improve in those areas by the time they next meet the ABs and if they do, then it will provide reviews for the AB coaches to be worked on before the comp kicks off, 2 weeks later.

2023-08-10T22:11:53+00:00

Old Bugger

Roar Rookie


At least the ABs 2nd string (as you call them) won, Brendan....cant say that about France or England's last selections.....and please, don't embarrass yourself by suggesting, a 3rd or 4th XV. There's only 2 selections available for RWC - the top 23 and the remaining 10, supporting players. And these guys, have been travelling and playing together as an AB squad, since RC commenced, 4-5weeks ago. You conveniently seem to be absent-minded, whenever the Bokke make multiple changes to their run-on team - 2 close wins against the Puma and a loss, against the ABs. By all means, talk about the ABs but do us a favour, dismiss the absence in your mind and try comparing them to other teams, who also made multiple changes from one game, to the next.

2023-08-10T21:59:08+00:00

Old Bugger

Roar Rookie


The majority of those who missed selection are ABs and SR players, chosen over the past 4 years Brendan. How can you assume they are semi-pro - NPC may be semi but SR, is our professional competition. The important aspect here is those players, have a competition to return to maintain their aerobic and match fitness levels just in case, there is an unfortunate injury in France.

2023-08-10T21:52:30+00:00

Old Bugger

Roar Rookie


But, compared to where JN is at the moment Brendan, Fozzie's 23 squad has had matches together to get their combinations, game tactics, match fitness and aerobic capacities, all locked and loaded for their next 2 games against SA and France. Can't say that much about where JN wants to be with completely new selections, for near each of the past 4 tests. And now, he has to wait until mid or end of the pool stages, before he finds out if 3 of his best, will be available for the finals series. There may have been some tongue-in-cheek comments of late but, I suggest it has more to do with where teams are at this stage of their build-up to RWC and quite rightly, both Jonty and Harry, have expressed themselves accordingly.

2023-08-10T11:42:10+00:00

Brendan NH Fan

Roar Rookie


I think the ability to break them down and the 2nd string not being as good as needed. But 9 & 10 to me seem like not good enough for test level and when defenses set can be ineffective.

2023-08-10T09:50:55+00:00

Good Game

Roar Rookie


May have been a combination of going from no/minimal rugby for 5+ weeks (for 7 of the starting XV) to international rugby and not the top 23. This was against a team that is starting to gel. Australia deserve credit the the pressure they created. Probably not helped by untried combos in the front row, 9 and 10 (the biggest issue on the day in my opinion), 12 and 13. The outside backs were inexperienced but there was some Crusaders synergy in there. There always seems to be a step down in class in most 2nd string teams. But with the 4, 5, 7, 8 that started the game I wouldn't call it 2nd string entirely. The ABs were slightly off and a big part of that was about how well the Wallabies played. Any thoughts on where the ABs faltered?

2023-08-10T08:45:38+00:00

Bluesfan


Well when I look at the WC class pack being termed as a weakness - OK, guess the only way to see if we are quality is when we play the likes of Ireland and France.

2023-08-10T08:38:50+00:00

Brendan NH Fan

Roar Rookie


Was surprised at the drop off in the NZ second string team. Do you think it was not playing enough since SR ended or is there that much difference between first and second choice players.

2023-08-10T08:35:47+00:00

Brendan NH Fan

Roar Rookie


Since returning to international rugby SA have played Scotland 20 times and lost twice, last one was 2010. As a result SA can pick the team that beat ARG in Arg or the one that beat Oz and they should win. They then can get their best team playing v Romania and Tonga if they need too. ABs have on the other hand painted themselves into a corner, because they pick their first choice for the RC they had to play the 2nd string v Oz last week. Do they give the 2nd string another game v SA and have no game for the 1st team until France which would be 6 weeks. If they play their first team v SA then the 2nd string will have had very little professional game time since SR ended.

2023-08-10T08:23:14+00:00

Brendan NH Fan

Roar Rookie


NPC v semi-pro/am players is not the same as T14 v seasoned professionals. Its why Oz have organised BaaBaa games against professional players not semi-pros

2023-08-10T08:11:41+00:00

Brendan NH Fan

Roar Rookie


As I said elsewhere both teams have different focuses. Maybe read O'Gara on the changes he made at La Rochelle season two compared to season one or the saders most years and when to peak. Areas mentioned were wings, locks, line-out and breakdown. Not sure many would pick NZ beating SA in those areas. Best NZ winger is a fullback.

2023-08-10T07:55:45+00:00

Brendan NH Fan

Roar Rookie


Pack is much improved but still struggled v Scotland and England last year at times. Yes this year has been better but the same would of been said in 2019. Rarely has the NZ pack looked poor v the other RC nations this WC cycle.

2023-08-10T07:47:50+00:00

Brendan NH Fan

Roar Rookie


Not dreaming, When SA did get the ball in the first 20 they generally made mistakes such as knockons. NZ are half way through their season while SA had to have an off season and prepare for the RC so that is probably why they faded and also why they played twice as many players as the ABs in the RC and have the Wales game organised. They should beat Scotland meaning their biggest group game is nearly 2 months away while NZ is 1 month away. Would be madness for SA to peak for the RC.

2023-08-10T07:29:31+00:00

Brendan NH Fan

Roar Rookie


Not to many if there are no injuries but its a squad game so some may by the knockout such as 19 year old winger. Point was that all the warmup games are meaningless for form. France were on game 1 so we're never going to be up to the speed of the Scots who were on game 2.

2023-08-10T02:52:35+00:00

CUW

Roar Rookie


@ Old Bugger welll am struggling to fit them all in the XV - imagine being France coach with so many choices :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: :laughing:

2023-08-10T02:38:28+00:00

Muzzo

Roar Rookie


Yep fair enough OB, as we all know that Foster has the final say. but time will tell!!

2023-08-10T02:35:51+00:00

Muzzo

Roar Rookie


That's your opinion, not mine Jacko, as IMO why isn't Razor playing him on the wing, seeing you know better than him?

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