The NRL’s push into the Pacific is looking more and more likely to happen with the Papua New Guinea bid getting Australian Government backing.
Put simply, Australian sporting bodies rarely look gift horses in the mouth and if that benefactor happens to be the federal government pledging tens of millions of dollars, then it’s almost a fait accompli that it will happen.
Whether it’s the right place to place an 18th team is debatable and even if the new club is based in Cairns but plays some matches in Port Moresby, it will be a tough sell to convince many NRL players, and their families, to relocate.
All you need to do is ask the Google machine about infectious diseases in PNG to put a scare through prospective recruits, not to mention the other problems that have plagued the nation like corruption, crime and violence against women.
North Queensland is NRL heartland and, as has been mentioned in pretty much every story about PNG’s obsession with the 13-a-side game, it’s the only country on the planet which lists rugby league as its national sport.
Papua New Guinea players celebrate with fans during a 2017 Rugby League World Cup in Port Moresby. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
So expansion to the north will not necessarily attract new fans to the game but it would give a new side an automatic fan base even if it will be spread far and wide.
It is unlikely that this team will add too many more eyeballs, spectators or fans in the rest of the South Pacific when you consider the tiny populations of countries like Fiji, Samoa, Tonga and the Cook Islands dotted throughout the vast expanses of the ocean.
A potential PNG expansion should not close the door on a destination like Perth as the NRL looks to widen its footprint.
One of the main criticisms of the supposedly “National” Rugby League is that its clubs are located only up and down the eastern seaboard of the mainland.
The AFL has a distinct advantage over its rival code by being truly national with two clubs in both Western Australia and South Australia and it will soon have a team in Tasmania.
But it’s not like rugby league is neglecting a large percentage of the national population – roughly 21 million of Australia’s 26 million inhabitants are from the three states and territories with NRL teams.
Throw in the five million good folk of New Zealand and possibly double that amount from PNG and the NRL would be in front of the AFL on a purely numbers game, although the level of engagement among those populations is another matter entirely.
And until the NRL’s engaged fan base is much bigger or there is suddenly a serious demand for an NRL team in a new market like Perth or Adelaide, 18 is the magic number for the competition.
A move to 20 has been floated at various stages over the past year and there is not the playing talent, nor the talent equalisation system in place, that would make this viable.
The Dolphins have done well to defy the dire predictions about their first year in the competition but they are still likely to finish the season in 14th spot with eight, maybe nine wins.
They will be marginally better in 2024 when Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Jake Averillo come on board to give them added strikepower but it’s a slow burn for any expansion team to become title contenders (apart from the Melbourne anomaly in 1998 when they benefited from the collapse of Super League in circumstances that could only be described as a perfect … Storm).
The best but definitely toughest option for the NRL would be to expel an existing club that is not viable or force a relocation to a new city.
With nine teams within a two-hour drive of each other from Manly to Penrith to St George Illawarra in Wollongong, the NRL has and will probably always have too many teams in the Sydney’s surrounds.
The problem is that even though Kerry Packer famously said everyone has their price, there is no dollar figure that could tempt an existing Sydney side to pack up and leave because the fans would revolt and whichever club executive who even contemplated such high treason would not even be given the option of cleaning out the desk before being frogmarched out of the office.
A system of promotion and relegation usually gets a spin in the NRL cycle once or twice a year on slow news days but it’s a theoretical solution, not a practical one.
Mario Fenech with North Sydney teammate Sean Hoppe in 1993. (Photo by Getty Images)
If you are relegated to the state cup, it’s not a temporary measure – if in doubt, there are plenty of diehards who can be found at North Sydney Oval and Henson Park who can confirm this.
Even though the NRL did not max out its asking price in the latest round of TV rights, there should be no club which goes bust under the current funding model.
The ARL Commission is claiming that it can grow its revenue base with ventures such as the planned Las Vegas double-header to open next year’s season, which is a gamble if you are optimistic or a waste of money if you look at it from a more realistic perspective.
Does anyone think the already crowded US sporting market, or its gambling community, is suddenly going to start becoming interested in rugby league because four teams they’ve never heard of will play a couple of games in Vegas?
If the government does kick in money for the PNG bid, it can’t rely on handouts to survive because if it doesn’t become self-sustainable it only takes one election for a new regime to turn the funding tap off.
Western Reds captain Brad Mackay with the foundation team in 1995. (Getty Images)
We’ve seen a shift in recent times where governments will swiftly divert money away from sports and stadium infrastructure to more important, and vote-friendly, areas like health care and education quicker than you can say Accor Stadium upgrade.
The NRL should be entering a period of consolidation and growth over the next decade but decisions over expansion have to be analysed from every angle before getting the green light.
Expanding too quickly, into the wrong locations, without ways to even out the talent can be disastrous – and for confirmation of that, ask any fans of the South Queensland Crushers, Adelaide Rams, Western Reds or Gold Coast Chargers, if you can find any.
fiwiboy7042
Roar Rookie
Of course the Warriors are, and they are getting support from NZ rugby fans as well. But the question remains if there is enough diehard league supporters in NZ to make a second NRL team in NZ feasible. Isn't that why Auckland lost the Nines? And if Auckland won't come to the NRL party, certainly no other part of NZ will. Auckland now has two Super Rugby teams, one of which specifically targets the Warriors' playing base.
BeastieBoy
Roar Rookie
35 years Ago there were no Polynesian numbers in Australian Rugby. It became Professional and now they make up 55% of Union and League Teams. I think they have the numbers in NZ that would jump at the chance to be in a new Team and be a Paid Professional. Sure it will take a Decade plus to be strong.. But they will get there. The Warriors are getting good spectator numbers.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
Really ? Roosters ? Over Uncle Nick’s cold corpse Rabbitohs ? I’ll let you tell Rusty Parramatta ? Strong, profitable, the biggest fan base in Sydney, a brand new, state of the art 30k stadium, located in Sydney’s 2nd CBD Penrith ? Yes, let’s move the most successful club of the last five years with the biggest junior nursery in the country, Canterbury ? Whilst I have no love for the Dogs, they are a huge club and a great brand Dragons ? They are already based virtually full time in Wollongong Sharks ? They have more money than they know what to do with these days after the property development in Woollaware Manly ? Privately owned, and specifically so to ensure the club stays on the northern beaches. That leaves the Tigers, and whilst they should be doing better, the south west corridor is potentially bigger than either Penrith or Parramatta’s junior nursery, not to mention that Liverpool will be Sydney’s third CBD and absolutely can support a club. All of that of course ignores the fact that the NRL cannot force teams to relocate, and even if they did, no one has the stomach for it.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
Probably no more so than the Force’s numbers are.
fiwiboy7042
Roar Rookie
have a 2nd Team in New Zealand. They have the player numbers and the Finance to make it happen. They can get the support of a Rugby Fan base. Channelling your Darryl Kerrigan much? NZ lacks player numbers, lack the finance (NZRL is always broke and needs annual govt funding) and a second NRL NZ team would push it asking for regular support from NZRU fans. Big difference between setting up the Dolphins and a second team in NZ.
fiwiboy7042
Roar Rookie
the question with the Western Reds crowd figures, BA, is how inflated was it by the attendance of rugby union fans (South African and Kiwi expats). The Force over the last few years had had the very occasional good attendance; one game against the Chiefs in Perth attracted a 105% attendance (there were people sitting on the ground just inside the fencing).
Rob9
Roar Guru
Sorry, that $4b is out of date and when it was in-date, the value of the Ravens was below that threshold. Forbes had them ranked 19th a few years ago and the most recent list of franchise values that I’ve seen has them at 23rd.
andyfnq
Roar Rookie
Waste of resources maintaining two home grounds. Teams should not be slaves to tradition, particularly when that sort of devotion to the past hurts their organisation in the present. Rake in pokies money from the city if they want, but on field, the Dragons need to bite the bullet, ditch their merged identity and just call themselves the Woolengong Dragons and play all their matches there. Time to forget Kogarah.
Nick
Roar Rookie
Right, so their solvency is entirely dependent on what a third party can negotiate for them for a tv deal and then live off the teat. You aren't making the compelling case you think you are. And you've just admitted two clubs need pokie money.
Nick
Roar Rookie
Townsville wasn't 90 minutes down the road from Brisbane either, Nat...
Nick
Roar Rookie
It's also why the government has an international trade department (the T in DFAT) and an agency called Austrade that links extensively with the private sector when expanding overseas. Oops! It's like you live in a cave where everyone hunts meat, watches rugby league and thinks the players are as brave as soldiers, and the ladies bring you beers, and all the ills of the world pass you by
Nick
Roar Rookie
Having lived in Auckland for 8 years and travelling regularly around the north island for work at the time. Being married to one. Raising kids there. Acquiring citizenship by naturalisation there. Still holding an investment property there. Rugby league is nothing outside of South and West Auckland, and beyond Henderson that's it. There is one leagues club in the East, there are just two on the entire north shore/east coast bays. One of the more established league clubs in West Auckland, the Te Atatu Roosters, plays next to a freeway with a shack as a club house. Mid decile high schools have better rugby pitches than rugby league clubs. You are confusing ad hoc matches in Wellington and ChCh as "evidence" of support, when in fact they get crowds largely analogous to when the NRL plays in regional NSW...just people with scarce little else to do having a bit of a fun day out. It's a novelty. Not genuine support. The AFL got a bigger crowd at Wellington than the Warriors have ever pulled there. Again, novelty. Not genuine support. But what would I know.
Nick
Roar Rookie
Should put a team in Geelong on that logic.
Nick
Roar Rookie
Like I said, it’s only two hours south of Auckland, which is the games stronghold in NZ. So all the people in South Auckland who attend the Warriors at Mt Smart, should instead drive 2 hours down the road to support a different team?
Nick
Roar Rookie
It is unreasonable and you've proved the point. You've just admitted crowds would be south aucklanders. Why would they pay $3 a litre to drive down to Hamilton when they can continue supporting the Warriors at Mt Smart?
Nick
Roar Rookie
And life will go on, Brett. You take a selfish view to many things. Perhaps Perth league fans would like a team to latch on to and have the passion.
Nick
Roar Rookie
Since moving they are above the median. They were below the median pre move.
Paul Suttor
Expert
The Dragons have been based in Wollongong for several years - they are in the process of building their centre of excellence just north of the city but they will always retain their St George links with the leagues club and their other home ground at Kogarah
andyfnq
Roar Rookie
I will admit I am also thinking dragons and Tigers as the most likely. A win for their new homes, and a chance for a fresh start for two clubs that have made a real habit out of mediocrity
Rob9
Roar Guru
I’d take the Dragons to the Gong full time and build a case for developing WIN into first class a regional stadium. I’d be open to Tigers relocation to Perth to become the West Coast Tigers. That brings Sydney down from 8.5 teams to a more palatable 7. To take the league to 18, bring back the Bears on the Central Coast which is a league heartland with a purpose-built stadium ready to go. My focus areas for 20 in a decade or so are the Sunshine Coast and Toowoomba. Both are growing regional hubs an hour north and west of Brisbane respectively that also represent league heartlands. Both are also in line for stadium developments for Brisbane 2032. That delivers a 20 team competition with a presence on each coast while Sydney has a more efficient representation with 7 teams (8 in Greater Sydney with the Bears) and SEQ has more adequate coverage with 5 teams.