It was an epic win by New Zealand overcoming another World Cup favourite in Ireland to set up a semifinal against Argentina – but I cannot help but be a little bit worried.
To many, it is a case of an ‘easier’ opponent after the great mountain climbed against Ireland, and therefore it should be an all-downhill walk in the park. But I wonder if it will turn out to be a greater mental challenge. Will the All Blacks be able to rise to the occasion again?
In some ways, it would have been better to be playing another heavy-weight opponent to ensure they rise again mentally. The All Blacks must trick their minds into believing they are up against the greatest opposition in the world to win on Saturday.
I hope I am not sounding terribly arrogant. I mean no disrespect to Argentina as they are an exceptional team, and their spot in the semis is deserved – but in private if you had asked the All Blacks at the start of the tournament who they would rather not play in the final four, France or Argentina, perhaps the former would be chosen.
I have found myself saying to people that the All Blacks should beat Argentina and advance to the final of the Rugby World Cup. Maybe that is correct, and they will do it with ease – but it is a dangerous place to go with overconfidence leading to failure.
We have seen it countless times in international sport, the monumental effort to ‘must-win’ followed by a shock loss – even by the All Blacks themselves.
Last year, the victory over the Springboks at Ellis Park in South Africa led to New Zealand Rugby coming out to confirm Ian Foster’s job as World Cup coach. But in their homecoming match two weeks later, came the banana-skin game and the heavy favourites suffered a shock loss to – you guessed it – The Pumas.
“They played their ‘final’ the week before” is often the common call when a loss occurs. There are many questions surrounding how the Kiwis will overcome this mental hurdle in preparation for the big game.
I believe they have to focus internally on how they play, not who they are playing. Will the kicking game used against Ireland be repeated for Argentina or do they go for a more possession-led running game? Will they name an unchanged side with Leicester Fainga’anuku retaining his spot ahead of Mark Telea? Can an unchanged side be up for the challenge of potentially winning three tough encounters or do you freshen the side up?
Of course, it is one match at a time and if the All Blacks are leading with a healthy margin then the bench could be emptied with players like Damian McKenzie coming on. (There is that overconfidence again! I must stop that, my apologies to Argentinian readers.)
Rieko Ioane in the RWC quarterfinal against Ireland. (Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)
We will not know how much physical and mental energy was taken out of the All Blacks during the Irish match until Saturday morning at fulltime, when the result will be known.
It would be tremendous for the game in Argentina if that were to happen and emotions would pour onto the streets of Argentina. If they were to win the RWC it would mean they hold both rugby and football World Cups, I am not sure how many other teams have that potential.
I believe there is too much to squander for the All Blacks to lose this one as the past two years have galvanised the group into believing they can win this World Cup; a difficult period under Ian Foster can be forgotten with victory on Saturday. As long as they overcome the same presumed subconscious overconfidence I too am feeling.
Fozzie has copped a lot of flak from many, including myself, but you get the feeling that internally the players respect and like him and will see him out with a semi-final win in his last hurrah.
Rogue Estate
Roar Rookie
Same in Dunedin
piru
Roar Rookie
Mate I learnt to read from Goscinny, Uderzo and Herge. When I lived in Runanga I used to pick an Asterix or Tintin book up every other day from the library on the way home from school.
Rogue Estate
Roar Rookie
My wife finished my whole Asterix collection set for my 40th - how's your set Piru? Best fall asleep books ever.
Lindsay Amner
Roar Guru
Yes it was a game of fine margins. But the All Blacks are a difficult team to beat twice in a row. While Ireland managed it last year the ABs are vastly better coached now. They were always going to rise to the occasion against Ireland. I actually expected them to win by a lot more, but that just showed what a good side Ireland are at the moment. Ireland would probably have beaten France. I was always a tad surprised to see people talking about playing the All Blacks for an easier game. That’s flawed thinking.
Old Bugger
Roar Rookie
Yup....me too
Jacko
Roar Rookie
Agree. He was very good that day and he seems to have a great chemistry with BB. Something I feel Mounga doesnt overly have. His passing is exceptional and his hand speed allows his passing to be very late or to cover space quickly. I look forward to seeing more test rugby from him next year.
Jacko
Roar Rookie
Mounga has lost a very high number of tests to Ireland in his short career. Possibably more than any other NZ 10 in history. Lost to France, SA, England etc too. I have no idea how anyone is supposed to prove they can play rugby when they arnt selected. Dmac outshone Mounga by a long way in SR but never gets a game in with the top guys. 1 game this year in top company against top opposition and that was v Arg. . He, and NZ, went very well. Miz of course I rate Mounga. I rate him as the 2nd best 10 in NZ, but he has his issues and I just feel that no one else gets a chance so how do we know if anyone else can do better than he does in tests. Never needled by you MIz you have more than earnt my respect.
Old Bugger
Roar Rookie
What drew my attention a couple of months ago when the ABs first played Puma, was D-Mac's ability to take the ball up, to the Puma back-line. I suggest this ploy, completely foiled any outside defence plans, the Puma had to such an extent that both mid-fielders (JB/RI), had a field day (scuse the pun) running off D-Mac, through the Puma's confused defence. That's all that was needed in that match to hold off the Puma defence....there was very little box-kicking ala BB plays, hardly any back-line planned plays of inside passing or second runner plays and hardly any, kick the ball downtown plays - the meat-pie plays were all linked with D-Mac taking the ball, to the Puma d-line. That IMO, caused the Puma defence confusion and allowed both JB and RI, to run straight lines and receive the pass at speed. It was then a choice for D-Mac to either pass to JB or do a long, flat pass missing JB, going to RI. I thought Fozzie & Co, had introduced another open style play-making style as a work on going into RWC.....except, I haven't seen anything similar, since. Oh well, them the breaks I guess....."poetry-in-motion" versus "flogging-slow-motion."
Old Bugger
Roar Rookie
My earlier selection certainly got some tracking mz but in hindsight, I'm ok about what has transpired and also pleased, that Fozzie has made just 3 changes, from the QF team. The 3 wise-men in the ABs coaching box, include a couple of blokes that to me, seem to have their head attached facing the right way instead of, the wrong way. That's been IMO, the biggest difference since July, last year. Their decision making has been on-point ever since so, its time for us couch-critics, to pick it up and run with it. Go the ABs...
mzilikazi
Roar Pro
I honestly think we..Ireland..would have beaten the AB's with D-Mac at ten, Jacko. I really do, I'm not out to needle you, as I know you don't rate Mo'unga. But he had me crying in frustration last weekend.
mzilikazi
Roar Pro
Good post, L. Fully agree.
mzilikazi
Roar Pro
D-Mac is the one I would be targeting if I were Cheika, OB. He does not handle pressure well, his running across the field is bad. I would still put Mo'unga on. His total contribution is just so enormous. Also worry about BB at fullback. Contestable garryowens thrown at him be useful. Ofc Argentina need to have the ball to do that.
mzilikazi
Roar Pro
Really interesting article, L, adds a new element of awareness of an Argentine upset win. Or maybe no upset at all. Writing a note I send around our family before each Ireland game, I said I was happiest playing the AB's, as I thought they were the weakest of the top four teams. I would not have wanted to play the Boks or France. As it turned out the team I was happiest to see Ireland play just edged them, and deserved to on the day. But it was a very close run thing in the end. In looking in depth at Ireland's performance, Sexton not playing well was a big factor, and not subbing Jack Crowley on was a huge mistake. He is no raw rookie, being a big factor in Munster winning the URC, and has now played, I think, nine times for Ireland.
Jacko
Roar Rookie
You should watch him play. This "he runs sideways" is BS and his skillset is so superior to LFs skillset its not even a close contest. Did you see what he did against Arg this year? Thats his only start in the top side for many years. Thats on Foster. Dmac is the best 10 in NZ based on FORM.
Nick
Roar Rookie
I've never seen him carve up a top tier heavyweight international opposition ever. Granted it's a reasonably small sample size but to me he's a bit of a flat track bully Jacko. If he reverts to type & runs sideways against the Boks he's toast. I'd love to be proven wrong I think Leicestera power is safer & more proven although again the sample size is small. He was solid against Ireland although his D was a bit shaky. MT back to start for me. The Boks are looking very ominous & I'd take power over finesse in the last 20. So many faked injuries they're all fresh.
piru
Roar Rookie
The Argies are capable of beating us. That fact alone should mean our strongest team is on the park with their game faces on
Jacko
Roar Rookie
Agree. Must beat Ireland because they beat us last year at home. Must beat Arg as they beat us in Christchurch and must beat SA because they beat us in warmup game going in to WC. Great planning lol.
Jacko
Roar Rookie
Its probably just the angle you come at things from Peter. I tend to be positive and direct but not everyone sees life my way. I feel you approach things very differently to me. Even if I wrote this article about the exact same thing mine would ( of course ) be very different to yours. I dont feel Im dishonest by remaining positive and upbeat and I dont think you are dishonest with different approach but it is definately a different approach. Im very confident we will show up this weekend and put in a good performance. It garrantees nothing but makes the lead-up week easier than worrying if we turn up or not.
mzilikazi
Roar Pro
Good luck in this game, Peter. A wall of worry to climb, and the Pumas are no easy team, if they play well.
Peter Darrow
Roar Guru
My critical thinking gets me into trouble Jacko. I am very honest not negative.