Broncos star set for immediate switch with Warriors offering lucrative contract to boost pack

One premiership, three grand finals and 9 games for Queensland. Not bad for a bloke from Charleville, population 4000,

Willison is the future. Tapau & Jensen the experience. Baker needs to earn a sport but Walters and Co must have seen something in his game. But with Flegler gone it's one less forward to cover over origin. A lot of 2024 depth will be tested based on the "hip drop quota" the NRL set per round or per team next year

Do you think it's as easy as Baker for Palasia? Along with Hunt coming in (also underrated IMO) he has a proven Tapau and Jensen plus Willison to battle it out with. Agreed that coin shouldn't be an issue for Walsh and Mam. They do need to be sensible as well. Mam isn't a $1m player yet and I'd offer Walsh 3yrs for $900k average. I'm sure there's TPAs available to top that up if required.

Broncos seem to be on track despite the media death riding Mam & Walsh contracts. Palasia out Baker in , like for like player at the same price. Hass upgrade funded by the cap increase, Capewell out, money to secure Riki & Piakura. Leaving the coin from Farnworth & Flegler to upgrade Mam & Walsh.

Capewell has done the job he was recruited for and I think the broncos have gazed in the crystal ball, where those GF images of Kurt missing a few crucial tackles late in the game cost them a win. Experience is great but when you drop off the pace a fraction, the best sides will hurt you. If he goes, it’s a win/win for him and the broncs. From where i sit, Carrigan was probably leading those young forwards more than Kurt in their 2023 resurgence and had an influential role in Billy Walters’ improvement and consistency. Capewell will always be respected by peers and supporters for his time at the broncos.

I don’t want you to say anything. You have an opinion as do I. We’ve both looked at various stats but I guess we differ as to what defines average/decent to poor. The Warriors must see something to warrant another 3yrs. (FWIW I also think that’s too long).

:shocked:

Without knowing exactly what you're looking at, I'd say it's the Fox stats which have been updated to include finals - my data is regular season only and comes from a mix of all publicly available sources. I tend to favour ZT, but acknowledge that there is unfortunately no single point of truth in NRL stats. Butcher and Jacob Preston would be the two best - edge to Preston given he plays for the Dogs, IMO. My assessment of KC is not unfair at all - they're his numbers, they're treated exactly the same was as everybody else's and compared to everybody else's, with distorting factors such as playing time equalised out, and other factors like tactical style/team strength considered in analysis. I dunno what you expect me to say other than that he is, based on the numbers, a poor player by NRL standards.

Where are you sourcing the stats DT? They both played 24 games but Carty didn't play more ave or total minutes according to Fox player stats. Obviously the more time on the field is an opportunity for more tackles and misses. According to NRL.com & Fox (rarely do the 2 correlate) over the course of the season Capes makes 61 more tackles but does miss 1 more on average per game. However, given we are not comparing defensive titans here, another element to be considered is time without possession - the opportunity to make tackles. Further, a little more intangible, who do you defend beside and trying to cover for has the potential to add to the tally. What is the high bar for a backrower? NRL and Fox say it's Butcher, a leading 92.7% beast with more minutes again and significantly more tackles than the next best. I then look to noted defenders Whitehead, Martin and Nikora all with higher defensive loads but less than 1% efficiency difference across them and Capewell. Over the course of the season that is approx 1 miss tackle every 2.5 games. For mine that is splitting hairs and quite unfair to diminish his efforts to "can’t tackle and doesn’t offer much with the ball" .

There's actually someone BEHIND Murdoch-Masila?

Hi Nat, BEAST includes everything measurable that I can find and can be spliced different ways, including by playing time. "he ranks pretty high for tackles made... those numbers would suggest he tackles well (sticks 90%)" Yeah, all edge rowers and centres make a lot of tackles. The corollary to that point is that he misses about 10%, which is high even for an edge, and even compared to guys who play in rush defences (Penrith and Canberra, for example). Take Bryce Cartwright, the poster boy for dodgy defence in recent years, and with good reason. In 2023, Carty played more minutes and missed about 8% of his tackles playing in a broadly similar defensive system. He also had the same weighted involvements as Capewell and produced about two net-metres more per involvement (sorry for the BEAST jargon, but it's all there in the article from a few weeks back). Hence the conclusion: Capewell can't tackle by the standard of comparable back rowers and doesn't do much with the ball. Per my response to Albo, he also seems to be declining from an already mediocre peak, and would not represent good value for the Wahs.

I’m saying of 34 starting backrowers he ranks pretty high for tackles made as well as try and LB assists. Contrary to your original statement those numbers would suggest he tackles well (sticks 90%) and pretty handy with the ball. If we are comparing to the likes BMM, does BEAST take into account the +70min ave each week?

I'm not entirely sure what that means, Nat. Overall, BEAST (and me) ranked him 50 out of 66 among regular second rowers in 2023, marginally behind Ben Murdoch-Masila.

Between top 8 - 5 of all backrowers for tackles, tries, TA, LB and LBAs in 2023.

No, I don't think so, Albo. Nothing in particular against Capewell - it's just that he wasn't that good when he was good - there were always a few big holes in his game, most notably his defence. And now he seems to be declining from an already middling peak. The Wahs definitely don't need him.

A bit harsh, Redcap ! I'm sure the Wahs don't have too many Origin players or Premiership players in their squad, to think they couldn't use the experience of a Capewell to provide some leadership in their squad ?

An edge back rower who can't tackle and doesn't offer much with the ball is not what the Wahs need.

Not sure about this story. It does come from Dobbin who also wrote that Herbie was a lock to stay in Brisbane colours. I’ve read elsewhere Capes was looking to finish his career in Brisbane. Personally I think his versatility helped Kevvie quite a bit last season. Piakura will be a good backrower but Capes between Mam and Cobbo/Mariner is a better defensive structure, otherwise it is a bunch of 20yo boys trying to work it out. I would transition Piakura over the ‘24 season and I reckon Capes would understand.

Yep ! Possibly past his best now, but still has leadership qualities to impart on Warriors coming through. Can still put in a big game from time to time and has big match experience.

Yep. Carrigan has the extra years under his belt now and Payne Haas was showing leadership last year as well. Capewell has done his job and was looking well off the pace 2023. Good luck to him. This is a good move for everyone.