With kick-off to the NRL season just a few days away, nine sides are hoping to continue a trend where at least one side leaps from also-ran status into the finals on the back of a five-win improvement or more.
Over the past nine seasons, the top eight has never been static year to year and there has been at least one club which has lifted their win-loss record by 10 competition points to make a return to the finals.
The last year when that didn’t happen was in 2014 when Brisbane were the only team to force their way into the playoffs from the outer with just a three-point better record on the previous season.
Last year it was the Warriors who came from the clouds to make the biggest leap of any team over the past decade.
Despite being written off as wooden spoon contenders in the pre-season under rookie coach Andrew Webster, they went from a paltry six wins in 2022 to surge from 15th to fourth, bettering the 11-win leap the Roosters took in 2017.
The Cowboys and Sharks made noticeable sudden climbs the previous season while Manly are the only club that have achieved the feat of a five-win bump three times in the past decade with their fortunes fluctuating on the injury history of Dally M Medal winner Tom Trbojevic.
Finals leapers
Teams in past decade who’ve improved five wins or more
| Year | Team | Record | Previous Year | Leap in wins | Ladder leap |
| 2023 | Warriors | 16-8 | 6-18 | +12 | 15th to 4th |
| Broncos | 18-6 | 13-11 | +5 | 9th to 2nd | |
| Knights | 14-9-1 | 6-18 | +7.5 | 14th to 5th | |
| 2022 | Cowboys | 17-7 | 7-17 | +10 | 15th to 3rd |
| Sharks | 10-14 | 18-6 | +8 | 9th to 2nd | |
| 2021 | Sea Eagles | 16-8 | 7-13 | +9 | 13th to 4th |
| 2020* | Panthers | 18-1-1 | 11-13 | +7.5 | 10th to minor premiers |
| 2019 | Sea Eagles | 14-10 | 7-17 | +7 | 15th to 6th |
| Eels | 14-10 | 6-18 | +8 | 16th to 5th | |
| Raiders | 15-9 | 10-14 | +5 | 10th to 4th | |
| 2018 | Warriors | 15-9 | 7-17 | +8 | 13th to 8th |
| Rabbitohs | 16-8 | 9-15 | +7 | 12th to 3rd | |
| 2017 | Sea Eagles | 14-10 | 8-16 | +6 | 14th to 6th |
| Roosters | 17-7 | 6-18 | +11 | 15th to 2nd | |
| 2016 | Panthers | 14-10 | 9-15 | +5 | 11th to 6th |
| Raiders | 17-6-1 | 10-14 | +7.5 | 10th to 2nd | |
| 2015 | Sharks | 14-10 | 5-19 | +9 | 16th to 6th |
| 2014 | Broncos | 12-12 | 10-13-1 | +1.5 | 12th to 8th |
Of the nine teams with grand plans for great leaps this year, all are theoretically capable but for most of them, incremental improvements up the ladder will probably be better than the alternative of sinking further into the mire.
Team by team, here’s how likely they are to skyrocket up the ladder in 2024.
Souths (ninth, 12-12 record in 2023): Definitely a chance of going 17-7 if they keep all their stars on the field but that is a big if. Latrell Mitchell’s injury and judiciary record has been spotty in recent seasons, Campbell Graham is already out most of the season with a sternum injury and key spine members Cody Walker and Damien Cook have been durable but are entering their mid 30s.
Should rise but a double-digit leap looks unlikely
Eels (10th, 12-12 record in 2023): Their chances hinge on how much a team values stability. They are rolling with pretty much the same side which never got out of second gear last season. A combination of Dylan Brown playing a full season and the likes of J’maine Hopgood and Will Penisini becoming fully fledged stars appears to be Parra’s only hope of a 10-point rise.
Don’t count on it – their depth is skinny, particularly in the spine
Cowboys (11th, 12-12 record in 2023): Possibly the hardest team to predict in the entire NRL. Can Jason Taumalolo again become the metre-eater he once was, will Chad Townsend defy Father Time for another year and is Todd Payten’s abrasive coaching style wearing thin with the players? Too many questions hover over the Cowboys.
Could click like 2022 and rise into top four but halves creativity an issue
Sea Eagles (12th, 11-12-1 record in 2023): They loom as the most likely of the also-rans to add five more wins to their tally. And the main reason for that is that Tom Trbojevic is back – when he lasts the season, Manly’s campaign usually last into the post-season. Daly Cherry-Evans is not the running half he once was but is arguably a superior player in many ways due to his elite organising skills.
Manly have the support cast to rise rapidly but only if their marquee man stays fit
Dolphins (13th, 9-15 record in 2023): They won roughly six or seven more matches than most pundits expected in their foundation year but it’s hard to see them exceeding expectations too much this time around. The additions of Herbie Farnworth, Tom Flegler and Jake Averillo are massive boosts but lock Tom Gilbert’s season-ending ACL tear undermines their already flimsy overall depth.
Wayne Bennett will be knighted if he can get this team to a 14-win finals campaign
Dolphins coach Wayne Bennett with fullback Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow. (Photo by Chris Hyde/Getty Images)
Titans (14th, 9-15 record in 2023): If you believe in the Des Hasler bump then the Gold Coast could be a surprise finals side. Manly added two wins in his first coaching foray two decades ago, the Bulldogs of 2012 went up eight victories when the Mad Professor arrived and the Sea Eagles won seven more matches than the previous season when he returned in 2019. Gold Coast have a strong pack but seem to be lacking attacking spark.
They will potentially be renamed Silver Coast this year because they will run second in many matches
Bulldogs (15th, 7-17 record in 2023): Eventually the tide will turn for this proud club which hasn’t made the finals since 2016 … or Canterbury will become the new Wests Tigers – splashing a lot of cash and getting nowhere year after year. Stephen Crichton’s arrival from Penrith should do a world of good but they need to get him clean, early ball otherwise he will go to waste out wide. He only needs to look left to ask Josh Addo-Carr what that’s like.
Should improve but only if they find the right halves partner for Matt Burton
Dragons (16th, 5-19 record in 2023): They can’t be worse than last year and with new coach Shane Flanagan putting a broom through the joint (venture), the existing players are on notice that they need to perform. It smells like team spirit has pervaded St George Illawarra in the pre-season and while they’re a long way from the nirvana of another premiership, they won’t be as bad as many experts have predicted.
Will cause a few upsets but not enough to go near the finals
Tigers (17th, 4-20 record in 2023): The team, and the entire club for that matter, looks more stable after the on-field malaise and off-field maladies which hovered over everything they did last year. Benji Marshall has marked his territory as a new coach by punting a former teammate in David Nofoaluma to let everyone know the club has hollered for a new sheriff who won’t put up with mediocrity.
In a holding pattern while waiting for Jarome Luai next year so don’t count on any great leap from Wests
Ross
Roar Rookie
I think the Cows improve based on James Maloney as attack coach, and hopefully a few of our veterans (Jake and Kyle to start with) moving to QCup as injury reserves. Big Griffin Neame is going to do Payne Haas numbers (per minute, perhaps not his minutes) and lead the pack onto the front foot.
KenW
Roar Rookie
Without necessarily making a prediction about the Cows in 2024, they get very good PR. I noted in a thread yesterday that the Dragons are the kings of the negative narrative – the way they get talked about you’d swear they’ve barely managed to win a game in the last decade. I think the Cowboys might be the polar opposite. Here’s their finishing positions going back 6 years in reverse order: 11, 3, 15, 14, 14, 13 Yes, 2022 was a great result with 3rd. But the common narrative is that 2023 was just a blip and they’ll re-take their obvious position in the Top 8. It seems a generous take.
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
My mate Brainchild lives in Brisbane and we’ve gone up to the Redcliffe Leagues Club a few times over the years. Now that is the only bright spot of the area. Always had to pick the car up the next morning though.
Redcap
Roar Guru
Brisbane was founded in part because those running the nascent penal colony at Redcliffe decided that, and I quote, “the land was too harsh for growing crops, the mosquitoes were very bad, and the water was even worse”. __ I’m not sure it has improved much, if at all. :happy:
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
As to point 5 ; there is always the risk of dying of boredom in Redcliffe.
Hard Yards
Roar Rookie
Gold
Succhi
Roar Rookie
I look at the risks of off field issues which tend to derails a season, particularly if involving a key player. 1. Souths - high risk with a few too many egos that have off field history 2. Eels - won’t falter after last years Brownie 3.Cows - just off loaded their biggest risk 4. Sea Eagles - Urbos are squeaky clean, but others will do something dumb in the North 5. Dolphins - hard to get into trouble in Redcliffe 6. Titans - glitter strip. Say no more. 7. Dragons - have bolted early in this theory 8. Tigers - as above
jammel
Roar Rookie
agree with this analysis Dumbo
BigGordon
Roar Rookie
We should revisit these comments at seasons end to see how these teams go.
Brett Allen
Roar Rookie
I can just as easily point to a few teams whose grip on a top 8 spot is just as flimsy. The Sharks are as heavily dependent on Nico Hynes as any team is dependent on any one player. The Knights, see the Sharks, just insert KP as the key man. The Roosters have been constant underachievers since the retirement of Cooper Cronk. Their best players are ageing or moving to rugby and their younger players haven’t really stepped up, looking at you Sam Walker. The Raiders, well they’re the Raiders.
jammel
Roar Rookie
Cows will be in the 8 this season IMO. So too bunnies + probs Manly. Parra maybe too. Hence my statement that easily sharkies + knights could be out. And/or warriors too. For Canberra, I think the F&A numbers might both improve, but the league position will slip a bit. Down to 11th/12th or so - in either the 8 or the bottom four is very unlikely.
BigGordon
Roar Rookie
Even the most optimistic Cowboys supporter would admit they had a season to forget last year. Getting 66 put on them by the Tigers probably summed up what was a dead ordinary year. Premiership points wise, there's not much between 5th and 12th, but there was clearly a gap in class between those spots last year. The outlier were the Raiders who were ordinary in defence (623 points leaked), ordinary in attack (486 points scored), yet still made the finals. I'v eno idea how Ricky plans to turn these numbers around, not with the cattle at his disposal
KenW
Roar Rookie
And we still need some team from the 8 in 2023 to drop down a cog and to be replaced. It's relatively straightforward to predict that this will happen, the flipside of Paul's stats on teams rising into the 8 every year is that other teams are falling out as well. Last year we had Souths, Eels & Cowboys fall into the bottom half of the comp - each of them considered likely finalists before round 1 based on 2022. Eels were the Grand Finalists, talking about taking the next step, it's never particularly likely until it just doesn't click for them.
jammel
Roar Rookie
Raiders could have been better last season. Eg if Wighton contributed more. And the likes of Starling/Savage/Kris too. There's always room for improvement. I thought the Cows were a bigger omission from the 8 last year than Manly. I disagree on the Sharks/Warriors having to fall in big heaps to miss the 8; same with Newcastle. This is a function of the difference between say 5th and 12th not being that great.
Dumbo
Roar Rookie
There are a couple of questions here: – is anyone of the bottom nine capable of winning at least five more games in 2024? – which of the bottom nine will make the top eight? No season in the last ten years has ever had more than one team increase its number of Wins by five or more, so we are looking for one team only. Of last year’s nine, I suspect only Souths have the cattle to achieve that. As for moving up to the eight, remember that to make the eight all a team has to do is win more games than it loses. In the last ten years only one club has ever won more than it lost and still failed to make the eight. (Give yourself a bonus point if you remembered that was the Broncs in 2022 with a 13-11 WL record). The teams that finished 12-12 last year have to only win one more game, and they will be in the eight! So Souths, Eels and Cows will fancy their chances. Eagles were 11-12-1, so one extra win would also see them in the eight. I can’t see a good enough reason for the Cows or the Eels to improve, but I think Souths and the Eagles have sufficient promise to make the eight. Dropping out, I have the Raiders (having not replaced Wighton) and either the Knights (not having replaced Young) or the Sharks. Paul said of the 2024 Eels: “They are rolling with pretty much the same side which never got out of second gear last season” You could say just the same for the 2024 Sharks. I see no evidence that they have learned to tackle (apart from McInnes) and I can see them dropping out of the eight.
BigGordon
Roar Rookie
I agree the Knights are a bit of a mystery team. If they play this year's season like the last half dozen games last year, they're a lock to make the finals. The Sharks & Warriors would have both fall in big heaps, not to make the finals. That's certainly possible but not likely. The Raiders fell into 8th, simply because Souths, Parra and Manly had underwhelming seasons. I don't think Canberra could have played any better, not with their squad and the way Ricky had them playing, whereas those other three teams played badly, had lots of injuries, etc, which suggests they've got a lot of improvement. It also means only one of these three teams has to improve a lot and the Raiders are looking at the finals from a big screen in Bali.
jammel
Roar Rookie
I disagree Gordon. Canberra might be at risk of falling out of the 8, but so too are Knights/Sharks/even the Warriors imo. Warriors aren't a lock - the only real locks for the 8 are Pennies/Bronx/Easts/Melbourne - and bunnies too probs. I think there'll be more flux this season. Plenty of room for bunnies/parra/cows/manly to make the eight. There's certainly a lot of love around town for Manly making the 8 this season! For the Raiders, we have lost wighton. But he didn't have a good year last season - and ended playing in the centres. I do think we are <50% to make the 8, but I wouldn't rule us - or the Knights/Sharks/Manly - out of making the 8. I do have us behind the Cows/bunnies/Eels though in 2024...... Canberra will benefit from more experience in the forwards and outside backs. I'm expecting more match time for the likes of Mariota, Mooney, Schiller & Savage. Plenty to be excited about this season! I give the doggies + dragons + phins no chance of making the eight! Titans just a slim chance too.
BigGordon
Roar Rookie
Rather than look who would leap up first, I looked for teams likely to leap out of the top 8 and there only seems one likely candidate from last year; the Raiders. That means the teams on the bottom half are pretty much fighting for one finals spot. Souths are the team most likely to move up. I don't think they have to do much more than they did last year to make the top 8 and I can't see them having to face the same sorts of issues again at the back end of 2024. Not sure they'll lap, but they'll certainly slide up the ladder. PS I still have question marks on the Knights. They badly need a good 2024 to show their supporters, last year's season comeback was no fluke.
Albo
Roar Rookie
I see 5 of the 9 with a chance if everything goes right, and 4 with no chance of making it to finals. Each of the 5 teams I give a chance to, still have major provisos associated with them apart from the usual wear and tear of injuries throughout the season. And we still need some team from the 8 in 2023 to drop down a cog and to be replaced. Souths - need Latrelle on the park and seriously interested in performing well. Eels - need Moses & Brown finally fulfilling all their promise for a full season. Cowboys - need Todd Payten to re-establish a winning spirit in this team. Manly - need Turbo on the park for the full season. Dolphins - need to get the right set of halves established. Katoa & Nikorima ?? Titans, Dogs, Dragons & Tigers I give no chances of a finals spot.