Michael Maguire is saying all the right things about how he wants to guide NSW back to State of Origin supremacy but the inescapable fact is he can’t do much of anything right now except hope fortune is on his side.
With six rounds of the premiership done and dusted and another six to be played before Maguire names his first Blues line-up, the annual obsession over Origin selection is about to swamp the NRL.
Maguire has been measured in his public statements about Origin selection for his first campaign since landing the gig following Brad Fittler’s abrupt departure last year following a 3-3 series record during his time on the hot seat.
The Blues were in disarray last year after losing the opening two matches under a revolving door section policy before more changes led to a consolation game three win to avoid a series clean sweep.
History suggests the best time to make widespread changes in Origin is at the start of a new year not mid-series although Fittler had a couple of examples where he overhauled the squad on the run to dramatically turn his team’s fortunes around.
Maguire hasn’t lost any likely selection candidates to long-term injuries apart from secondary halfback option Mitchell Moses so at this stage he has a wide variety of names on his not so shortlist.
But his red texta should have already crossed out names like Damien Cook, Cody Walker and Tyson Frizell from last year’s series as well as Latrell Mitchell at least for the first game until he can return to something resembling his peak form.
As is the case every year but more so when they’re coming off a series loss, the debate over NSW selections is endless.
The Blues have a much larger talent pool to choose from but that has never bothered the Maroons. They have drawn strength from their lack of options, picking and sticking with players who are not superstars at NRL level but are suited to the different kind of beast that is Origin.
All sorts of names are being tossed up as options for a Blues debut like Warriors duo Wayde Egan and Mitchell Barnett, Cronulla’s Blayke Brailey, Cameron McInnes and Teig Wilton, unhappy Dragons winger Zac Lomax and Manly forward Haumole Olakau’atu.
(Photo by George Wood/Getty Images for RLWC)
The first decision the Blues need to make is whether James Tedesco is still the right option as fullback. And then decide whether that means he remains captain.
No skipper in any sporting team deserves their spot, let alone the honour of leadership, if they are trading on their past reputation.
Unfortunately for Tedesco, he is now a very good fullback but not a great one and definitely not the best option for NSW.
On recent form alone, Dylan Edwards should be in the No.1 jersey and if you throw big-game experience into the selection mix, Tom Trbojevic deserves a crack after 10 Origins since his 2018 debut out of position at wing or centre.
If you listen to some of Tedesco’s fans, not the actual ones but some media members who are more supporters than reporters, they seem to think it is bordering on treason to even suggest Tedesco’s time is up at rep level.
He wouldn’t be the first long-term representative captain to be tapped on the shoulder and he won’t be the last.
Wally Lewis is now rightfully recognised as one of Australian rugby league’s Immortals and his game-breaking ability, particularly in the Origin cauldron that he rules as the Emperor of Lang Park, was second to none.
But after Mal Meninga had already replaced him as captain, he was punted from the team altogether after losing the first Test of the 1991 series against New Zealand when he was no longer considered the best five-eighth in the land and Lewis never wore the green and gold again.
No longer captain, no longer in the side. It was massive news at the time and there were plenty of arguments for and against the controversial call but if it can happen to The King, it can happen to anyone.
And if Tedesco is no longer leading the Blues out, the heir apparent is Nathan Cleary.
His Panthers co-captain Isaah Yeo and Rabbitohs skipper Cameron Murray would also be solid options but only Cleary has the credentials and calmness to lead from the front on and off the field while also being the most important player on the field, much like Lewis in his prime during the early days of Origin.
Selecting Cleary’s halves partner at Origin level has been problematic. Jarome Luai has filled the role seven times but he can go missing when it comes to the organisational duties in attack, placing too much of a burden on his Panthers teammate.
The Blues have just won three matches with Luai in the No.6 jersey and have lost the last three times he has been in the pivotal role.
Maguire needs to pick the team that the Maroons don’t want to see and they won’t be unhappy if Luai is talking the talk in Origin without necessarily walking the walk to back up his outspoken ways.
Matt Burton or Nicho Hynes have the kicking and passing skills to complement Cleary as a secondary playmaker while also being able to make breaks with their running game. Walker at 34 is down on form and would only be a short-term solution, which is not the kind of thinking NSW should be adopting after back-to-back series losses.
Hooker is the other spine spot up for grabs and with Cook in NSW Cup for Rabbitohs, the jersey should be going to Api Koroisau.
Reece Robson showed last year that he is certainly up to Origin level, Brailey and Egan wouldn’t let anyone down if they were given a shot but for creativity, reliable tackling and crisp service from dummy-half, the Tigers captain cannot be matched.
If Trbojevic is again not used at fullback, he will be a lock for one centre spot.
One player who Maguire should not consider for a centre berth is Jack Wighton.
The 30-year-old retired from the representative arena last year but has since made a few remarks to suggest he could reconsider. It would set a bad example if the Blues were to let a player effectively take a year off and then come back.
A younger option who has got a taste of Origin like Burton if he is not needed at five-eighth, Bradman Best or Stephen Crichton would be a much more prudent pick.
The pack, particularly the middle forward rotation, poses plenty of posers for Maguire.
Payne Haas is due back soon from his knee injury and providing he is fit, he will join Murray, Yeo and Liam Martin as automatic selections.
That leaves four spots for a couple of props, a back-up second-rower and someone who can float between the middle and the edge.
The Blues have cycled through veteran forwards Reagan Campbell-Gillard, Junior Paulo, Daniel and Jacob Saifiti, Frizell and Jake Trbojevic in the past couple of campaigns, as well as the one-off train wreck that was Tevita Pangai jnr’s controversial appearance in Adelaide last year.
They also blooded Stefano Utoikamanu and Hudson Young last year who could develop into long-term Origin performers if the Blues persist with them rather than their usual “chew them up and spit them out” policy.
The team the Blues should pick … but they won’t
1 Dylan Edwards
2 Brian To’o
3 Tom Trbojevic
4 Stephen Crichton
5 Josh Addo-Carr
6 Matt Burton
7 Nathan Cleary
8 Payne Haas
9 Api Koroisau
10 Stefano Utoikamanu
11 Cameron Murray
12 Liam Martin
13 Isaah Yeo
14 Nicho Hynes
15 Hudson Young
16 Mitch Barnett
17 Junior Paulo
18 Teig Wilton
Short Memory
Roar Rookie
The only significant stat Edwards is significantly better than Tedesco is Kick Return Metres. Which is a factor of how Panthers choose to return the ball, and of how often opposing teams are forced to kick long because they are being pinned in their half by Panthers' dominant forward pack. Tedesco has significantly higher Tackle Effectiveness, less Line Break Causes and less Try Causes - even though the Panthers have conceded less tries than the Roosters. Edwards' most useful position in Origin is on the wing.
NQR
Roar Rookie
In 2015 Ennis played origin with Gallen Captain. It was 52- 6 flogging to the Maroons. Pearce was at 6. I rate Farrar above Gallen as a footballer.
Don
Roar Rookie
I think a smokey selection if he comes back in good form is Brendan Piakura for a bench spot. Great ball runner, good defender, aggressive and can hit. Certainly I'd have him in a wiser squad in camp. Over Horsburgh who's been playing NSW Cup...
Don
Roar Rookie
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Don
Roar Rookie
If you have a player that is getting the ball more than you want them to, then you have a coaching issue. Players do what coaches ask them to and allow them to do. If a player is always standing where you don't want them to or is consistently in the way? It is a coaching issue. It would have been easy to reduce the times Gallen is getting the ball if he is not listening to your instruction and that is what you want. Bench him, remove captaincy, and drop the bloke who keeps giving him the ball. Otherwise the coach is weak as water... The bloke I felt sorry for in the NSW side over the years was Mitchell Pearce. Some of the rubbish ball he got from Farah, particularly after RF had done his act at dummy half and fooled no one, and then thrown it late at Pearce's head was miserable. Oh, and I should add...I am no advocate for the bloke. I could not stand Gallen as a player.
NQR
Roar Rookie
He probably has achieved legendary status in Queensland. His motivational speeches were extremely motivational. Especially the one before the 2015 semifinal in Townsville where he said he didn’t really rate the Cowboys pack very highly and believed the Sharks would completely dominate them? LOL Then Mat Scott ran straight over the top of him and out the other side first carry of the game. Peptides and ego was his greatest assets. It took a lot of football intelligence around Gallen to achieve victory on the football field IMO. Whilst you say Farrar was at fault for passing the ball to him others criticised Farrar for overplaying his own hand? Farrar literally had Gallen parking himself between Farrar and playmakers consistently and especially on opportunities outside him? It was gold. Don’t underestimate how hard it was for Flanagan and Ennis to tell him Fafita, Townsend, Maloney, Lewis, Barber, Graham Holmes and your teammates will score plenty of points if you don’t get in the way.
Don
Roar Rookie
I don't agree on Gallen and apart from last year, Tedesco has been fantastic for NSW. If I was a selector I would have picked Gallen in every side too. If he was a QLDer he'd be a Maroons legend. Cameron Smith and the others loved him in the Australian team. The problem was not with Gallen, it was with his coach, dummy halves and playmakers. He was always in position to take the ball and called for the ball, and that is exactly what you want from a middle forward. Robbie Farah should not have been passing it to him half the time. Mitchell Pearce and his 5/8 should have been given total control over playmaking by the coaches and both Farah and Gallen told clearly that he calls the shots. He was not always the best play option, yet Farah kept passing him the ball. People called Gallen a "ball hog" but he had a huge motor and was simply always ready to run the ball. When Michael Ennis went to Cronulla early on you could see him overcalling Gallen and ignoring him. Gallen got pi55ed off but soon realised Ennis was not going to change, and what he was doing worked. Obviously there was also support from Flanagan at the time too so Gallen was used differently. He still took a ton of hit ups and ran a ton of metres, but when there was a better option, he was ignored.
NQR
Roar Rookie
I don’t understand how clubs don’t recognise spirit in club culture. Cowboys best years were achieved when NQ, QLD talent were the primary core players. They have something more than money when it comes to playing finals. Luciano over the backrower talent they had? Drinkwater, Hiku ahead of Hammer. I recognise Townsend was needed for kicking and management but Clifford is back now? Townsend purpose has expired.
Fraser
Roar Rookie
Ahh my friend, NQR. I've just added fuel to the fire for the NSW selectors, who will now bumble and fumble over selections for the next 2 months before settling on the whole Panthers 17, realising they aren't all eligible, then choosing Nathan Cleary and 16 x fullbacks.
jimmmy
Roar Rookie
Yeah, I'm absolutely mystified that he consistently gets rated so highly. He ranks about 12th on my list of current FBs. Look I concede that in the modern era we can't have a team completely made up of NQ locals BUT if you have guys who are local and capable you have to try to keep them and give them preference over bloody NSW ers. If not sure recruit. I'm forever grateful for Lachlan Coote and Eddie Munster. They both filled big gaps in our roster at that time but if we had capable NRL level players in NQ they go first. One of the foundational goals of the club was to give local juniors a pathway into professional sport . We are losing that focus and Payten seems to play lip service to that admirable goal.
NQR
Roar Rookie
They’re all golf buddies. Hammer goes fishing and doesn’t do golf or clothing photo shoots. I signed and supported a submission in the early 90’s for a team from NQ to give opportunity to local kids to play and represent their community. Now it’s a team of spineless blues? No DCE, Hunt, Munster, Grant, Brandon Smith, Ponga, Hammer were much valued?
NQR
Roar Rookie
Did you watch his attempts to stop Eels from scoring. LOL he actually went and stood out Feldt on the wing when Asi wandered past Taumalolo? Supposedly his talk and ability to organise the defensive line is his major defensive strength? FM I literally watching this bloke avoid having to make a tackle. 2 try assist a kick for Nanai a school kid could do and a pass to a bloke that beats 3 defenders and gets over through determination? I’d love to see an error assist stat. How many passes result in the receiver losing possession? I can think of 6 from Drinkwater this year.
NQR
Roar Rookie
I’m looking to have you charged for Treason. Don’t help the enemy that information. You should always be encouraging flashy match winners. For example they definitely should consider Drinkwater at centre or back up hooker. Bradman best is hopeless. LOL please change your attitude Frazer.
NQR
Roar Rookie
I was giggling every year they picked Gallen and left Jurbo out. In recent years I have been giggling about Tedesco being picked ahead of Edwards. LOL
mushi
Roar Guru
Cotter also says hi. Seriously I thought this article was a parody at first
mushi
Roar Guru
Really, the article is suggesting the exact approach that has undermined NSW.
mushi
Roar Guru
This article is a perfect example of why NSW's talent pool hasn't dominated origin.
Gamechanger
Roar Rookie
So start with some of the COMBINATIONS who won game three in 2023. The skeleton of that side should be considered at least first of all.Stick with Bradman Best for example. They were all over Qld in that game. “As is the case every year but more so when they’re coming off a series loss, the debate over NSW selections is endless.” There always seems to me to be too much media frenzy over NSW selections. Too many voices seem to cloud judgement.
Gamechanger
Roar Rookie
Eight out of the 18 Paul are current or ex Penrith players. That the NSW origin side has been ‘ Pennycentric’ has been a common criticism in recent years, particularly under Fittler. It’s common knowledge now that Slater and qld have the strategy to beat the Penrith combinations. The team needs more diversification.
Gamechanger
Roar Rookie
It’s time to transfer the captaincy baton to Cleary. He needs to dominate at Origin like Wally Lewis to be truly considered an immortal of the game. “ Lewis is now rightfully recognised as one of Australian rugby league’s Immortals and his game-breaking ability PARTICULARLY in the Origin cauldron …..” -Suttor. After 10 concussions Tedesco should be medically retired by the NRL overruling the Roosters who strangely won’t make the call. This decision sometimes needs to be taken out of the players and clubs hands. If new policy needs to be implemented then let it be .