Just over 20 years ago, I watched the mighty West Indies take on Australia in a ODI at a packed SCG. Football is my favourite sport, but at the time I was completely oblivious to the existence of the National Soccer League.
In the last week we have seen domestic football matches in both Sydney and Melbourne draw bigger crowds during the same weekend as ODI’s between Australia and the Windies. Twenty years ago this would have been unthinkable.
Back in 1990, the NSWRL averaged about 12,000 per game, the Sydney Swans home average was 9,000 per game and the Waratahs were an amateur provincial side who only played a couple of games a year.
It got me thinking: What will the sporting landscape look like in another 20 years?
Here are my predictions:
Aussie Rules has cemented its position as the no. 1 winter code, persisting with two sides in Sydney and SE Qld. The ongoing propping up of the code in the Northern states has weakened the Melbourne heartland with a number of clubs being relegated to the VFL. Australia competes in an annual four-nations tournament including South Africa, Ireland and the Pacific Nations. As usual, Australia trounces the opposition to be proclaimed the ‘world champion’.
The NRL has buckled under the pressures of Aussie rules competition and reduced leagues clubs funding and is now a semi-professional competition featuring 12 teams stretching from Sydney to North Queensland. However, the State of Origin continues to draw big crowds from Rugby League fans nostalgic about the past.
Rugby Union is now Aussies rules main winter competition. The 12 team Trans Tasman super rugby comp (with the winner facing the South Africa + Argentina conference winner in a Super Rugby, Superbowl) being a more exciting prospect after IRB boss John O’Neil forced through radical changes to the rules of Union.
Football has continued its rise. The 18 team A-League now averages around 20,000 people per game and the B-League is finally starting to gain traction. The success of the Socceroos in winning the FIFA World Cup on home soil in 2022 means that the men’s national team continues to be the most popular team in the country.
And cricket? Well the Ashes is now the only regular Test series played, with 25/25/25/25 cricket becoming an increasingly popular sport around the world at both the domestic and international level. The 2031 World Cup will feature a record 16 nations, including the likes of the USA, China and Germany.
Worcester Warriors
Guest
I guess you quite enjoy cricket?
Jakez
Guest
It's satire mate. You can take it however you want, sorry if my humor makes you feel uncomfortable. Although, I think that anyone that has lived in this country long enough to see the trends and cycles can recognize the grain of truth behind the jokes, I guess you just haven't been around long enough. And just because I make a joke about a sport doesn't mean I don't like it.
Rusty0256
Guest
This entire thread is getting copied and sealed into a time capsule not to be opened until 26 Feb 2040. Providing aliens haven't invaded and forced us all to play their indigenous Tychekenball, it will be interesting to see who gets to say "I told you so". See you on the other side.
rugbyfuture
Roar Guru
wow someone has some spite for every other sport except AFL, saying cricket is dying is exceptionally narrow minded and that the FFA dissappears is also in a very similar frame. Cricket is undoubtedly the national sport, and will last Soccer is the most powerful sport in the world and will never dissappear.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Look like reasonable enough predictions to me!
Jakez
Guest
1) The NRL will be no different to what it is today, with a few 'expansion' teams pushed out to minor provincial cities and towns like Dubbo. NRL fans will still spend much more time whining about the AFL than actually watching or talking about RL. 2) The AFL will be the undoubted spectator sport of choice of Australians in every state. The Swans and GWS will average 60,000 for home games. The majority of the crowds will be disgruntled RL supporters looking for ammunition they can use next time they go to talk to their RL mates about the AFL. 3) The FFA will long since be dead, but a new soccer league will have since arise from the ashes. The Socceroos will draw 100,000 to the MCG for a 'football' match, leaving 100,000 Melbournians extremely confused and bored. Following this Soccer fans will immediately proclaim all other football codes dead. 4) Cricket administrators will finally realize the game is dying and belatedly take action to revive interest. To do this they will introduce a Ten10 best of 365 competition with special rules that Australia cannot lose, ever.
Sharminator
Guest
Not sure about the whole RU going backwards thing. The Wallabies have a young side and havnt been playing well but rugby is very cyclical ... and having a young team today may pay dividends in a year or two. I think the error is to equate the Wallabies not playing well with the sport of rugby union being in decline- Recent figures show player particupation has increased this year, and with the new Super 15 team in Melbourne next year this will add impetus to spectator and player numbers in Melbourne. In terms of "the Socceroos were always bigger than the Wallabies!!!" again this is a silly comment. The socceroos every few years manage to get a big crowd for a one off world cup qualifier, when they have their overseas players. In contrast the Wallabies consistantly get big crowds and media attention for all of their home tests. There is no comparison.
Rod
Roar Guru
The RLWC is separate, has been since 2008. The NRL got screwed the last time the contract was up for renewal just like it has ever since 1995. The next one hopefully will see RL get what it's really worth, I think they are going to try and sell games as separate packages, SOO, Internationals, NRL games on different TV stations to try and maximize $$$$$$, could get anywhere from the 500 million now to a Billion $$$, we'll have to wait and see.
Worcester Warriors
Guest
Booooooooooooooring.
Worcester Warriors
Guest
Yeah Setanta was broke long before that deal was done. Does the NRL deal cover anymore than just NRL? Or does it cover tests and the 2008 RL world cup?
jake
Roar Rookie
whups typo! is Antarctica a state??
Dave1
Guest
and 20 years later 69,000 turned up to the first day of the test compared to 45000 to a one dayer on the same day 20 years ago. Try predicting that story 20 years ago.
Red Cap
Guest
Nice lack of evidence.
Michael C
Roar Guru
btw - in 30 yrs, INternational Rules will be an Olympic sport!!!
Michael C
Roar Guru
and somehow people were disappointed with it in 2010!! great expectations or what?? (but, Boxing day is an institution - and we need to note that in 1989/90, the Aust v Pak test match was played over Jan 12-16 at the MCG, whilst, Boxing day saw 45,000 turn up to see Aust host SL at the MCG - with D.M.Jones - remember him - scoring 85* off 89 and Simon O'Donnell spanking 57* off 60 balls - the 2 Vics delighting the home crowd both striking at better than 95 with the next best Aussie in the low 70s. SL fell 30 runs short and O'Donnell wrapped up a big day out with 4 for 36. In the text Ijaz Ahmed and Tubby Taylor made 100s, Akram took 11 for the match and Alderman 8 for the match. Peter Sleep was the number 1 spin option for Australia. 17 yo Aaqib Javed was playing for Pakistan...he's 37,....he could still be playing now 20 years on!! Tendulkar is!!
Rod
Roar Guru
Always another big Sydney NRL club to step up, they all can't be pathetic at once you know ;)
Rod
Roar Guru
Mate, that was 54 million pounds over 3 years, not 54 million a year. A long long long way behind when as you stated the NRL gets 83 million a year. http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=41058396772 Quote taken from an article: In a difficult economic climate the new agreements will deliver in excess of £54 million in revenue over 3 years, which is a 45% increase to the Guinness Premiership clubs. This increase along with double the match coverage will enable the clubs to develop their commercial businesses on the back of an increasingly strong broadcast platform. ......................................................................................................... And as True Tah said, the deal fell through when they went bust. The NRL gets over double the TV money the French Top 14 gets and the SANZA deal isn't as big as the NRL's. After those 3 Rugby Union competitions, there are no bigger RU comps out there.
Michael C
Roar Guru
No worries, and the exact numbers/comparison is a pointless exercise, the only thing re the Gaelic footy is that it's wrapped up in part in the 'Gaelic Games' package. The operation of a 'football club' so to speak need not be the primary purpose - but, often an outcome. That said, in many places around the world - the Irish lads and the Aussie lads have got together to play International Rules (variations thereof) matches together.....due to a lack of close proximity opposition of the preferred code. This has been one advantage of an often spurned hybrid game. cheers
Dave1
Guest
Its hard to predict the next twenty years. Who would have seen the rise in popularity in test cricket thats happened in Australia since 1990. In 1990 Pakistan played Australia in Melbourne 68,865 turned up with a best day of 19,989. In 2010 156,267 turned up
Dave1
Guest
and Kewell, Neill & Cahill all had the advantage of having a European passport