The winners and losers from code expansion

Giants coach Kevin Sheedy and Israel Folau take the stage during the Greater Western Sydney unveiling of its club name and colours at the Sydney Showgrounds, Sydney. Slattery Images

In the ongoing battle for supremacy in football in this country, the mantra appears to be that more teams equals more money, whether that be from television rights or other means.

All football codes are expanding or planning to in the near future, and so I thought I’d take a brief look at how it’s being accomplished.

Super Rugby in Australia went from four teams to five, and by territory comes in fourth in the football codes. In a few months, the Melbourne Rebels commence their inaugural season in the expanded Super 15. Union has had several one-off matches and plays Test matches in Melbourne on a regular basis, and as such isn’t a stranger to the Melbourne community.

It faces challenges not known to its compatriots, in that it is the first privately owned club in Super Rugby, and has little in the way of grassroots to support it, with few junior teams to fall back on, and no state first grade structure of quality to feed it.

Its biggest concern, like all winter sports in Melbourne, is the AFL.

However, if the Storm is any indication to go by, the Victorian public tends to embrace most sports, and given Super Rugby crowds are hardly massive even in the heartland, the Rebels will most likely be a success. It’s all in the hands of the team’s administration.

Super Rugby faces the prospect of there being nowhere else likely able to sustain a team in Australia, and this will be as far as it goes. There are plans to include Argentina and maybe a Pacific Islands team, although it appears that South Africa may join the European Six Nations tournament due to its friendly time zones.

With all three of the other codes expanding, rugby needs to take a good hard look at itself.

The AFL is moving aggressively into the rugby league heartland, placing teams into the Gold Coast and West Sydney areas. Both teams have strong foundations, with stadium deals and sponsors, as well as government support and a committed league administration determined to make it successful if it takes twenty years.

They face competition from the resurgent Gold Coast Titans and four league clubs in the West Sydney area. It’s no coincidence that it will have been 30 years since the Sydney Swans moved to the Harbor City when the new team takes place.

The AFL has clamped a lid on Tasmania for the time being, although Hawthorn will play four matches there in 2011. AFL premiership matches will also be played in Cairns (one), Canberra (two) and Darwin (two). Pre-season matches will also be played at Blacktown, NSW.

Rugby league appears to be awakening from its slumber, with the prospect of a new and improved TV deal in 2013, an Independent Commission in 2011, as well as record crowds in 2010 – and there’s a lot to like about its prospects. Bids are coming in from Central Coast Bears, Central Queensland and the WA Reds for expansion.

Whether the league opts to spend money on expansion or to fix the code’s existing issues is going to be one of the many interesting discussions at NRL headquarters. Playing finals in front of bigger crowds at Stadium Australia should add to the leagues WOW factor.

In Melbourne, the Storm will get up off the canvas and be successful once more.

The A-League is shaping up to be the loser in the expansion period. North Queensland will be lucky to see out the 2010-11 season. Gold Coast exist only by the skin on Clive Palmer’s money. Crowds for Sydney matches are abysmal. The A-League has revoked the license it awarded for its newest franchise.

Even Melbourne Victory’s crowds are down, although this may be due to the introduction of Melbourne Heart. Crowds in Adelaide remain excellent, and support in Perth has steadied after a period of decline. With the World Cup out of the way, one can only hope that the FFA pay more attention to its children.

So who wins?

The Rebels move into Melbourne and depending on administration – and lets face it private owners don’t have the best records at sporting clubs in Australia – there’s no reason they won’t be a success.

Crowds in Melbourne are almost a given, with a large Islander population, and plenty of others who don’t mind a bit of rugby if past matches are anything to go by.

In Queensland and NSW, the AFL will use everything at its disposal – media and cash most of all – to ensure its teams survive the difficult birthing processes. The AFL claims to want crowds of 20,000 on the Gold Coast, and given Brisbane pull around 30,000 to a match, I don’t find that unreasonable at all.

They proved through its experiences with the financially stricken Bears and Swans throughout the ’80s and ’90s that it has the sheer stubborness to persist – an attitude we only wish had existed when it came to Fitzroy.

The NRL have a lot of positives coming through even if they don’t launch expansion teams in 2013, and they shouldn’t be disappointed if the NRL opts to fix its problems before splashing out on new or rejuvenated franchises.

Who loses?

I cant see the A-League winning out of this, and its problem is partly that it lacks one crucial advantage that the AFL and NRL have – a heartland. Melbourne and Sydney provide the bulk of clubs for the other national leagues, with Queensland supporting league, and WA/SA following the AFL into the ring.

They give crucial impetus through finances, sponsors, and big TV numbers that just aren’t available to football in Australia.

Before the A-League, the NSL had two conflicting empires – the Sydney based one and the VPL based one, and the failure to capitalise on these is part of the problem we are faced with today.

If the NSL had employed an Independent Commission at any time in its history, football’s history might just have been a little different in Australia.