“Turnout to prove case,” read the headline from The Mercury newspaper this week, referring to Tasmania hosting the A-League regional round between Melbourne Victory and Gold Coast United and whether the turnout would help justify a club representing the state in the competition.
This was, after all, the first A-League home and away match to be staged in Tassie – at Aurora Stadium, Launceston, potential home for Tasmania United FC, the name of the group pushing for the state’s inclusion in the A-League.
Their fan liaison and social media administrator, Charles Gregory, was quoted in The Mercury saying a crowd of 10,000 will “certainly remind the FFA to keep an eye on us”.
After all, Launceston previously hosted two pre-season matches that pulled crowds of 6307 and 8601. This clash would be a contest for premiership points involving Harry Kewell.
But only 5268 turned up. The 10,000 may have been too great a target (expecting one in every ten Launceston resident to turn up to a match without Tasmanian representation probably a tad optimistic), but the crowd was respectable considering the match, like most of the regional rounds, was scheduled midweek, when even big cities struggle to get fans in on a Wednesday night.
However, whether Tasmania has the population to sustain a club is a legitimate concern, considering the split between the state’s two biggest centres, Launceston and Hobart – two and a half hours drive between them.
Both have adequate stadiums, although while Hobart has the greater population, double that of Launceston, a Hobart-based A-League club will now go head-to-head with the city’s Big Bash League franchise, the Hurricanes. Wasn’t the lack of the sporting competition one of the major advantages of putting an A-League club in the state, helping to negate the small population concern?
According to Tasmania United, “Initially, the club plans to rotate home matches between the north and south of the state. In the north, Aurora Stadium is an obvious choice, having successfully hosted many national and international sporting events, including football.
In the south of the state, options continue to be assessed. North Hobart and Bellerive are obvious choices but the taskforce is considering a variety of short and longer term options.”
The problem here is the schism it creates; the potential division between the two and the lack of identity the club would have if it was forced to pick one over the other (hardly “Tasmania United”).
As the league saw in Townsville, which has a greater population than Launceston, any own goals are amplified when there is such a small population to try and attract a sustainable fan-base from.
There are other concerns. Key to any official bid (which the state government has not committed to) is marrying the Tasmania United taskforce with Football Federation Tasmania, which is yet to happen.
But is the Tasmanian grassroots strong and deep enough to sustain an A-League club, in terms of players, junior coaches and the like?
Remember, although there is no AFL club based in Tassie, Aussie Rules has a strong grassroots presence there, again quashing the idea that round ball football can have a monopoly of the state if it decides to move in with an A-League team.
Then there is money. Minister for Sport and Recreation Brian Wightman recently said he could not commit the $7.5 to 10 million investment needed to create and sustain a potential club over the first five years.
As evidenced by V8 Supercars’ public battle with the Tassie government to save the state’s event with funding for track upgrades at Symmons Plains Raceway in Launceston, the state’s economy is hardly flush with cash for sport.
And if the FFA is unable to find investors willing to back a western Sydney franchise, out of the game’s supposed heartland, what hope is there of a non-government investor for a club out of Tassie, in what would be the smallest market in the league?
Ultimately, proponents of Tasmania United point to the state’s lack of professional sporting teams – no clubs in the main football codes, thanks to the AFL’s continued snubbing, with only the Hurricanes in play.
But, crucially, they will clash in the same time of the year as Tasmania United, should it be based in Hobart.
The question, therefore, that needs to be asked is whether a market so small can sustain two professional sporting clubs going head-to-head in the key summer school holiday period. Advantage Launceston? But what about the smaller population? Again, that old schism remains.
Perhaps a franchise could have worked pre-Big Bash League, getting in before anyone else. But in the time since I last wrote about Tasmania and the A-League, which I was then in favour of, the league has failed to prove it can sustain clubs in chance markets.
Even Central Coast, with all their on-field success, have struggled for financial backing in a market that, in reality, is probably too small for the current A-League economic model.
This whole argument is a moot point, however. Further expansion of the A-League is on the back burner after the recent assessments of the league from the government and governing body, not to mention the continued question marks around the sustainability of Gold Coast United and following the demise of North Queensland Fury.
If it were to expand, then the FFA would also have to consider bigger centres such as Canberra and Wollongong, with previous histories of football clubs in the national competition. And let’s not forget the great, untapped western Sydney, if there is an investor out there.
Despite the football code vacuum that exists on the Apple Isle, there remain some question marks around Tassie and the A-League.
Bill
Guest
+1
Qantas supports Australian Football
Guest
Stoffy18-----apologies it was indeed a typo, I read your name without my glasses ;)
Timmuh
Roar Guru
Far more chance than there is of an AFL side being sustainable. As said in the article, one Wednesday night is hardly indicative of anything. The issue is as much about sponsorship as population. There are very few local businesses of any size (I don´t think there are any in the ASX200 with their base in Tasmania - Gunns used to be the only one, but I would be surprised if they are still top 200). That means no vital people to bribe - I mean do business with - via the lure of corporate boxes, etc. That puts a big dent in things. York Park is also not a suitable venue, the surface is far too large for a full house to see anything. The practice games have been played along one wing, with all spectators in that side of the ground and able to see the game. As the Rugby World Cup game showed, the rectangular games get lost in the middle of that ground. Bellerive, the preferred Hobart option of the bid team, will be unavailable for most of the A-League season as the proposed "football" pitch crosses into the cricket pitch square. It also has the same dimension issues as York Park. Why not North Hobart, which is far smaller and could just have some temporary seating at the ¨bowling green end¨ to be workable, more central, and with no less parking than Bellerive (although also no more, and parking is big problem for Bellerive). It would need to be a Hobart club only, there is no venue in Launceston suitable for conversion to a rectangular field or able to hold more than 8k for a game on such a field. There would not be a current rectangular field with more than 20 seats. Without corporate support, and with Fox not really interested in a market of under 2.5% of population and barely 1% of national GDP its hard to see it happening. The FFA needs to make a vital decision first. Is it after teams in more places, or a high level league? Regional areas, and despite being capitals Canberra, Hobart and Darwin are regional will not be able to support such teams. If the A-League is be more expensive to run a club in, in order to attract better players, etc, there are very few places to expand into. Many of the possible places are marginal now, with higher costs they become unquestionably out of consideration.
Drew
Guest
Tasmania once had both mens and womens teams in the old NBL. Both folded, despite some success, and are no more. The only way an A-League club could survive is with total, 100%, corporate sponsorship. Even the task force report into Tasmania United predicted the 'club' would lose money, $2.5 million over the first 5 years, even with attendances averaging 8-10,000. However, there's a huge Korean investment about to take place in Hobart, just under $1 billion, so maybe there could be some interest from there. There's a bloke in Hobart called David Walsh who just spent the best part of $200 million building a museum in Hobart, but he doesn't seem to be interested in sport. Someone made the point that Tassie doesn't export to Asia. Um, $4 billion in exports last year from a population of 520,000 puts the state in the top 3 in the country, per capita.
Stoffy18
Roar Guru
"Softy" .. I sure hope that was a typo. ;)
pete4
Guest
Chuq - from memory the issue back then was both teams arrived in Canberra less than 24 hours before the match and pretty much all the promotion was that day. Thankfully FFA have learnt from this and I understand both clubs held clinics down there in Tassie and there was some promotion that week. Don't get too hung up on the figure
Chuq
Roar Pro
And yet, this "welfare state" could draw 5200 people in a city of 120,000 people to a Wednesday night match, yet Canberra only drew 5100 in a city of 350,000 on a Friday.
Whites
Guest
No. Tasmania is a welfare state. By population they should get about $1.1billion in GST but actually receive $1.9billion because they can't raise their own revenue. Gross state income per capita in Tasmania was $43,000 in 2009(ABS). The lowest of all states and way below the national average of $56,000. They can barely function as state let alone support a professional football team of any code.
Brian
Guest
Regarding Tasmania I don't think they can suuport a team at this stage. Regarding my figures we are measuring commitment to a club. Obviously someone who goes to see his club 19 games a year is probably pouring in more revenue than someone who goes 11. We are measuring people appetite for sport do the supporter who goes to 11 AFL games and 8 HAL league games is equal to the Bolton supporter who goes to 19 EPL games. The point made by Whites is that overall there is a very similar pool of crowds (i.e.revenue) shares on a similar base per population.
kevin
Guest
Gotta correct you, its always "Nottingham Forest"!
Kasey
Guest
Do people forget that the only reason the 'most supported club' in the HAL even exist is due to FFA supporting their creation? the consortium that became MVFC were unable to raise sufficient capital for the inaugural season, so FFA underwrote them until they could raise the coin. What would be wrong with doing it a second time in WS? If the FFA firmly believes that WS is a priority(as many fans do) and firmly believe that the team has he potential to be as (if not more) successful than the MVC, then surely it could find some coin(after the next media rights deal is struck of course) to underwrite any shortfall the WS consortium has? Chuq has already talked about double standards wrt evaluating the success of a team in Tasmania v Canberra using HAL games played in each location.
Axelv
Guest
Nooooo, You're doing the aggregate divided by population, there is clearly way more home and away games in England, also more teams and competitions. E.g AFL vs EPL, 17 teams vs 20, 22 rounds vs 38. That's 176 AFL games vs 380 EPL games. More than double.
ItsCalledFootball
Roar Guru
Brian you can't use aggregate figures, its the same people that go every week and get counted 20-40 times a year. Its the average attendances that count and the cost of running a club that dictates if it will be profitable. EPL clubs have 10 times the revenue, but 10 times the expenses too and the average players wage is very expensive compared to the A-League. As you can see from this Guardian newspaper financial scorecard, not one EPL club turned a profit in 2010. http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/may/19/football-club-accounts-debt The clubs need to do a business model and plan and see what their bottom line is. Maybe with a low cost base, using a lot of local juniour players, community support and volunteers a Tasmanian club with a healthy benefactor could survive in the A-League for a very long time on even just 5,000 average attendances plus their share of FFA money and sponsorship. And the Second Tier A-League competition could even reduce costs further by playing in state conferences to reduce travel and other expenses and then having national finals series at the end of the season. The winners get considered for promotion. If you put a lot of thought, planning and effort into the competition, there may be more opportunities there. But one step at a time and lets consolidate on the growth and keep the momentum going for the A-League, FFA and provide the football leadership that other clubs and potential investors are looking for.
Stelios
Guest
Canberra has to be the next stop for an A-League team. We are crying out for a team, since the exception of the A-league we have proven we have the numbers to succeed. 20,000 turned up to watch a Socceroos B-team play kuwait in an Asian cup qualifer, we had 10,000 turn up to watch the socceroos play little known malaysia in a friendly, we've had crowds of 7,200, 5,700 turn up to Sydney FC PRE-SEASON cup games and we had the two 5000+ crowds at the two Mariners A-league games. Imagine if we had our own team to cheer for, I couldnt see us averaging anything less than 8,000 a game if not 10,000. How can Gold Coast and Townsville win licenses over us? How can West Sydney win a license over us when the FFA said it themselves that we had the most advanced bid they had ever seen and then just watch West Sydney fail at the final hurdle? We had 2,500 people turn up to a 500 seat stadium to watch the W-League grand final, infact we get close to if not more than 1000 to that same stadium week in week out. We have over 20,000 registered footballers and a rich football history that has seen us develop the likes of Ned Zelic and Carl Valeri. And dont you dare whip out the "you didn't support the Cosmos" bullshit, by NSL standards our crowds were not bad. 3000 was actually pretty decent compared to most teams during the Cosmos years (1995-2001). Since the Cosmos the suburb of Bruce (Home to Canberra Stadium) has seen a huge population increase, and the northern district of gunghalin which now has a brand new highway which goes straight past the stadium has an increased population of 30,000 since the Cosmos days. When we finally get that A-League team we have been cyring for, a lot of people are going to be surprised by how well we will support them.
Tom Seungmin Lee
Guest
I think there's none who'd gonna be bold to make a club in Tasmania, after seeing FFA thrown North Queensland Fury out that way. Simple, isn't it? With such partners, doing business is nothing better than suicide.
stabpass
Guest
Whites said "Also, Tasmania is basically a welfare state. The rest of the country is propping up the Tasmanian government which is then using that money to pay rich out of state professional football teams to play in Tasmania". Quite simply, the above statement is misleading, Tasmania has a booming tourist economy, around 30% of people attending AFL games in Tasmania come from interstate, Australian football fans travel in great numbers and if you look a bit deeper you will find that one of the reasons that the GC Suns FC got their stadium built was because of tourism associated with AFL football. Tassie is no different, and also a great spot for a holiday and many AFL fans combine both. Of course it would be remiss not to mention that Tasmania is regarded as a AF state, and the Governement obviously can see the benefits of AFL footballers engaging with the local communitys, and locals being able to see the highest standard of football in the land. I might also add that somewhere down the track Tassie will probably have its own AFL team.
PromotionCouldWork
Guest
Would promotion work as a National finals series? Consisting of the top teams from each state's league in a champions league style format (Australia's Europa league equivalent) the winner each season would be promoted to the a-league. To further keep down costs it could be compressed into a short tournament style process over a week or so. My major concern with this would be how the nationwide balanced could be preserved across all the major regions, although the a league salary cap should even out everyone's chances.
Brian
Guest
Its an interesting point but I dont know if entirely correct. In 2011 Aus had 46 teams (17+15+9+5). The averages were AFL 38,100 - 11 home games - 17 clubs - 7.124 million NRL 18,100 - 13 home games - 15 clubs - 3.530 million HAL 11,500 - 13 home games - 9 clubs - 1.345 million ARU 22,100 - 8 home games - 5 clubs - 0.884 million Thats 12.88 million attending the 4 codes. Now England & Wales. EPL 34,300 - 19 home games - 20 clubs - 13.053 million Championship - 17,600 - 23 home games - 24 clubs - 9.74 million League 1 - 7,300 - 23 home games - 24 clubs - 4.02 million League 2 - 4,300 - 23 home games - 24 clubs - 2,.401 million Aviva - 11,600 - 11 home games - 12 clubs - 1.539 million Super League - 9,600 - 14 home games - 12 clubs - 1.613 million Total = 32.366m So Australia 12.88m out of 22.818m that's a ratio of 0.564 games per season per person England is 32.366m out of 53.3m that a ratio of .601 games per season per person So much to my sursprise the poms seem to be bigger sports fans than us! Of corse I am not considering that Aussie codes have more Finals which are skewing the figures down in Australia - although I also have not considered European or FA Cup Football both of which get healthy crowds.
Glen
Guest
2-5k crowds in a B-league isn't that bad. But what if that team gets promoted? They won't necessarily gain an extra 5000 fans. In which case we would be creating a new team with only gold coast type support. Not to mention they won't have the revenue to compete. I don't think promo or relegation will work in Aust on a national scale. Where comps get too big (ie AFL & NRL in a decade or so) confrerences is the way to go.
Axelv
Guest
Great post Fuss! Agree fully with everything you've said. The city is ours!!!