So the 2013 season is coming to a close, and the race for the flag tightens, the season will end for some teams, and they will look to build for next year.
Even among the teams in the finals, as the bottom four teams are highly unlikely to win the flag from their position.
As a matter of fact, since the replacement of the McIntyre final eight system, no team from who finished outside the top four has gone on to win the flag, and the last time a team from outside the top four won the premiership was in 1998.
While it isn’t impossible to win the premiership from outside the top four, it is incredibly difficult and improbable, meaning that all clubs from Richmond down only have a slight chance to win.
So while many of them will look to push teams in finals, all will be keeping one eye on next season to try and build on their performance this year and hopefully crack the top four next season and a genuine flag tilt.
The article will analyse all clubs from Richmond down to Carlton, and see what they need to add to their list to become that next tear teams.
5. Richmond
The Tigers have come in leaps and bounds this year; they have gone from the perennial ninth to making the finals.
There will be no cruel last minute disappointments or just missing the cut, the Tigers may have arrived.
The only thing is that while they may have found some support for Trent Cotchin and Brett Deledio, things go terribly wrong if those two are completely blanketed, same goes for Dustin Martin.
The Tigers will only push further with another year into their midfielders and hope for a better run with injuries to Cotchin, Newman and Tuck.
6. Collingwood
Collingwood needs two main things, firstly it needs better luck with injury, and it needs to not drop games it should easily win.
While four of Collingwood’s losses came from the top four sides this season which is to be expected, Collingwood also dropped games against Port Adelaide and the Gold Coast, two games they were expected to win and is the difference between a sixth place finish and a finish in the Top 4.
Collingwood also had a very average run with injuries with stars like Beams, Toovey and Thomas all having been sidelined for long periods of time during the season.
7. Port Adelaide
The Power from Port was certainly a surprise packet this season, rising from the depths of obscurity to the finals taking some impressive scalps on the way.
Their seventh place finish (up from eighth thanks to Essendon’s demotion to ninth due to AFL penalty) was certainly the biggest shock as many had Port as one of the cellar dwellers again this year after their shocking performance last year.
What went wrong this year for Port was a massive form slump in the middle of the year where they lost five consecutive games, which was a massive blow after having done so well at the start of the season winning their first five games.
8. Carlton
Carlton has made this year’s finals by pure luck, and their spot isn’t even guaranteed yet.
While the Blues are the first in line for Essendon’s spot in the eight, many Blues fans have lamented the fact that their side has done little to show that it deserves to be a top eight side, sighting the two losses to Essendon in which it failed to win despite being in winning positions.
Many at Carlton believe that the club has gone backwards and that the club is in a desperate need for a change in personnel.
While there is no doubt that the list will need pruning, and new players are needed to add to the list, many are hoping calmer heads prevail and that the club won’t simply react to this year’s failure.
Carlton will once again be have a midfielder and will be looking for a key position player when the trade and draft period rolls around.
Jackson Clark
Roar Guru
2013 certainly won't be Richmond's year to challenge for the premiership but hopefully the side can learn a lot from what will be their first final series. I think the added improvement on second-string midfielders such as Reece Conca, Brandon Ellis and Nick Vlastuin is what will take us forward as a team. Added improvement from Vickery would also be nice as I think the big man Ivan Maric is probably slowing down a bit with his troublesome groin injuries.
Edan Nissen
Roar Rookie
You're right, it is hypothetically possible. It is incredibly difficult and will not happen this year. As people have identified, teams ranked 5-8 have beaten teams in the top 4 this year. The difference is it isn't just that they have to do it once, but for 2-3 weeks in a row they will face top 4 teams away from home. Producing results aren't impossible but are difficult for teams to do. Even Collingwood, who has beaten Geelong this year isn't capable of pulling off three victories in a row.
A Mans Not A Camel
Guest
I think it's ridiculous of anyone at all to state that it's not possible for a team to win from outside the top 4, or top 3 even. It's not probably, but it is possible - two very different things. It takes a team to string together 4 good weeks of footy to take the flag from 5th and below, and that's not impossible by any stretch of the imagination. Has it happened since the AFL became the AFL? No. Does that mean it can't happen? No. I don't think any supporters of the teams from 4th to 8th should be getting ready for next year. 4 wins. It's possible. Not probable based on recent history, but possible. Live the dream, fight hard, be competitive in 4 quarters each week, and anyone in the 8 can take the flag. If the Cats/Hawks win first week, home ground advantage week 2 may make it hard for the winners from the elimination finals to get through to week 3 as they'll be playing in Sydney or Perth, but not impossible.
Slane
Guest
When they won from 5th they actually lost their first match. If that happened these days they would be out of the finals.
Edan Nissen
Roar Rookie
1. This article was obviously written before his announcement. Obviously they will need to replace Tuck, he was incredibly serviceable for the Tigers over his career. Even as a Carlton fan, I respect Tuck's bravery when attacking the ball. 2. List changes need to be made at Carlton, but reactionary list changes aren't. Getting rid of players like Yarran, who have great potential is excessive and reactionary. He has had a few bad games this season, he isn't a bad player. 3. I agree with Port, they've discovered some fantastic young players this year in Wines, Neade and Wingard. I'm very interested to see what happens with Kane Mitchell at the end of the year. He seems to only be a fringe player at Port, mainly being used as a sub. I'm sure they'll persevere with him, but it's still interesting.
Edan Nissen
Roar Rookie
I read on the FAQ section that they want articles between 500-700 words. I originally had a lot more written for each team, but it was already 1,500 words. This is cut down do roughly 650 -700 words.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
My article http://www.theroar.com.au/2013/08/26/the-finals-implications-of-the-round-to-come/ was 943 words. No worries mate.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
"The Tigers will only push further with another year into their midfielders and hope for a better run with injuries to Cotchin, Newman and Tuck". Well they can't rely on TUCK - HE REITRED TODAY. Malthouse is right in his approach to Carlton - swing the axe. Collingwood needs to up its defence, its midfield and forwards are strong. Defence is there weakness. Port - just needs time. With the third youngest list behind only Giants and Suns they just need experience. As most people have said during the week, North Melbourne deserve to be in the finals and I back them to get that spot. There weakness is not their defence, but stopping momentum in general.
Kev
Guest
Given that Adelaide are the only team to have done that in the past 20 or so years I would say that that was an anomaly and not the norm. The fact is, you have to be one of the best teams in the comp that year to finish in the top 4 and it should be of no surprise to anyone that a top 4 or top 3 team wins the flag.
Kev
Guest
No. Next question.
Edan Nissen
Roar Rookie
That's not what this article is actually about. This article is about what they need to improve on for next year. The title was changed by an editor of the site. If you read the introduction it answers the title straight away. No side has won the Flag from outside the top 4 in the current system and it isn't going to change this year. What these clubs will do doing is keeping one eye on next year and seeing how they can improve
Edan Nissen
Roar Rookie
Brisbane, West Coast and Adelaide are also capable of reaching the inal series in Carlton's place. There are two reasons that I haven't written about them, firstly Carlton is in the drivers seat for the final, even if they have played terribly because North probably won't beat Collingwood and even if they do, Carlton playing well (which it is still capable of) has a much better chance of beating Port which makes the result of the North v Pies game irrelevant. I also couldn't write about all of them because the roar limits articles to 500-700 words, otherwise I would have written something up about every club.
Gordon
Guest
A loss for Carlton and win for North Melbourne this weekend would see the Roos take the Blues' finals spot.
Nick
Roar Guru
Sorry, I meant 4th in 1997 and 5th in 98. Anyway, in the NRL, the Canterbury bulldogs made it to the GF from 9th.
Nick
Roar Guru
Maybe not in the new finals era But, in 1997, Adelaide won it from 7th, an arguably harder feat.
Milo
Guest
NFC
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
Not only can they not come from outside the 4 but this chart shows no team has come from 4th either: Year AFL H&A 2012 Swans 3rd 2011 Cats 2nd 2010 Magpies 1st 2009 Cats 2nd 2008 Hawks 2nd 2007 Cats 1st 2006 Eagles 1st 2005 Swans 3rd 2004 Port 1st 2003 Lions 3rd 2002 Lions 2nd 2001 Lions 2nd 2000 Bombers 1st
Andrew A
Guest
Very difficult to win 4 finals in a row. The Pies weren't too far away in 2007 from 6th spot.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
North are going to win from outside the eight!
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
I wrote about this very subject last year http://www.theroar.com.au/2012/09/05/clubs-outside-afls-top-four-wont-make-it/ The simply answer to your question is no. Even making the preliminary based on past results would be a massive achievment. If there is going to be a team to do it, it will be Collinwgwood. They have proven match winners and have shown they can match it with the top 4 sides on their day. The Tigers, Power are green horns when it comes to finals and history says you need to serve an apprecticeship in the finals before you can win a flag. The Blues are too inconsistent and they are not yet a guaranttee to make it. Geelong is the only team in recent memory that has won a flag after missing the finals the previous season, athough the same squad played in finals in 2004 and 2005. The Adelaide triumph in 1998 was very much an anomaly. They were the reigning premiers and benefitted from North Melbourne choking in the grand final.