Brace yourself. It’s only twenty-five days until the start of the AFL season, and we’re about to be bombarded with predictions of what may unfold.
These postulations will come from everywhere – the media, the street-corner, the local pub. They’ll especially come from online sports bloggers.
The best way to prove yourself as legitimate and that you know more than everyone else is to come up with something that will happen that no-one else has thought of.
In Australia, we’ve come to know and identify such predictions by the slang term ‘smoky’.
Last week, on Melbourne radio sports station SEN, key AFL media identities, Mark Robinson, Dermott Brereton and Kevin Bartlett all identified North Melbourne as their smoky to make a leap up the ladder this year to become a top four and potential premiership contender.
Nonsense.
Don’t get me wrong, this is a very reasonable opinion to have. Extremely legitimate.
In fact, the factors that should lead to a jump up the ladder for the Kangaroos are so blindingly obvious that it’s harder to miss them than it is to connect the dots.
For a start, thanks to a series of close losses last year, mostly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, most people would agree that North’s percentage of 119.53, ranked sixth in the competition, is a truer reflection of their ability than the tenth place ladder finish and 10/12 win/loss record.
As often as not in recent years, a team with the sixth best percentage has landed in the top four on the ladder. Before the expansion sides came along, a percentage of 119 would often have been the third or fourth best.
Leading into 2013, North Melbourne had what was considered to be the toughest draw, which was somewhat backed up in having to play Hawthorn, Geelong and Collingwood twice.
They also had Adelaide beat them both times in close matches, once in unforgettable fashion.
This year, they have repeat matches against Adelaide again, along with Melbourne, Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs. It looks friendly on paper, and it’s hard to think it won’t become so in reality.
Looking at their record against top eight sides last year, North either beat, matched or established comfortable leads against Sydney, Hawthorn, Port, Richmond, Geelong, Carlton, Essendon and Collingwood.
The only side missing from the top nine there is Fremantle, who strangled them into submission the only time they met – a not uncommon occurrence for any side taking on the Dockers under Ross Lyon, and my personal premiership favourites this season.
Looking at what North’s best 22 might be, half of them would be considered as having their best football in front of them and should improve this year.
This is a talented core group reaching the perfect blend of age and experience, which includes the likes of Jack Ziebell, Ryan Bastinac, Ben Cunnington, Jamie MacMillan, the Aaron’s Mullett and Black, Lachie Hansen, Nathan Grima, Robbie Tarrant and Sam Gibson.
Father-son draftee Luke McDonald should also have an impact and make them a better team if his assured first showing in the NAB Challenge is anything to go by.
When it comes to North’s more experienced players, all are still at their peak, or even coming off career best seasons. Here, we’re talking about Daniel Wells, Andrew Swallow, Todd Goldstein, Brent Harvey, Scott Thompson, Drew Petrie and Lindsay Thomas.
Nick Dal Santo will now be added to this collection of players, sure to provide a welcome dose of class and finals know-how. His seventeen finals is one behind Harvey, but dwarfs the third-place Petrie of those on the Kangaroos list.
The biggest problem North had last year was contriving to lose the unloseable over and over, leaking goals and unable to prevent opposition sides from gaining momentum and capitalising late in games.
Brad Scott and his coaching staff will surely have spent countless summer hours to correct this problem, and the majority of younger players will also have improved natural maturity and fitness to deal with such match situations.
So, if we look at North as having a ‘real’ base of fifth-7th in 2013, rather than 10th, and the natural progression of a talented list, it’s not a leap to think they should be pushing even further up.
Add in the fixture disparity from last year to this, a proven ability to match the best sides, and an improved list through the draft and free agency, and the maths add up to a top four contender.
None of this is to say that the Kangaroos are a sure thing to make a jump this year. As we’ve seen with Carlton over the last five years, football teams don’t always follow a linear progression of improvement.
The weight of expectation has also brought many an emerging club undone.
But the ingredients are all there for a successful 2014. They are clear and they are obvious. Don’t let anyone fool you into thinking they’re making a bold statement by calling it.
Paul o'hanlon
Guest
Yeah the draw is critical and they have improved but so have Sydney (franklin shaw Johnston Tippett ) hawthorn (mcevoy Harley suckling ) collingwood ( toovey white fasolo young Adams beams) You could say All teams have improved and make a similar argument. For me north have a skinny bacline if Thompson goes down or grima they don't have the cover none of their forwards are able to play back (Petrie maybe) I think Thomas won't have the same impact My prediction ( key players) Freo(Johnston) Hawthorn(roughy) Collingwood(Grundy) Essendon(Watson) Sydney( if Pyke gets injured lower) West coast(glass) Geelong(Hawkins) North(Thompson) Richmond(maric) Adelaide(danger) Carlton( Henderson) Bulldogs(minson) Gold Coast Melbourne Port Gws Saint
MFairPlay
Roar Guru
I told my family I thought Roos had the chance to be minor premiers and they laughed. I showed them this and now they respect my opinion. Thank you
Philsport
Guest
Great article and I completely agree with your reasoning and sentiment. Very unlucky last season. Great crop of players with good blend of youth and experience. Now is the year. It's essentially now or never for Brad Scott too. Pressure is on! -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Garcia
Guest
Very interesting article using mathematics to calculate a sides premiership window. Shows North heading closer and closer each season. http://www.footyalmanac.com.au/geelong-can-you-please-crawl-out-your-window-the-statistical-premiership-window-and-trend-lines/
Eliot Bingham
Roar Pro
Fantastic article Cameron. As a passionate North fan I completely agree they should not get ahead of themselves which they aren't even though the media is pumping them up. Watching those close losses last year was heartbreaking but I believe this season has so much promise. We can match the best, but struggle so much against defensive sides such as Sydney and Freo which I don't expect us to win those games. That was the one problem we had which we may have scored 120 points but against Geelong and Collingwood they were allowed to score over 100 points too. D# D# D#.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Yep, that's basically it. Outside their best 22, I've got experienced players like McMahon, Firrito, Wright, Anthony, Nahas, Jacobs and Harper, plus a few others, so it's not a terrible position to be in. I love looking at players 23-26 after I've done a best 22 to judge how deep a side goes.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
I'm always blithely optimistic even if they've got a list of no hopers and never weres but last year was excruciating. I hope they don't lose their attacking style but a little judicious defence wouldn't hurt. Still overboard defence is sometimes counter productive. Rock on 'roos and don't forget to knock 'em when they are down.
TomC
Roar Guru
I think I get it. So the nonsense bit is to call North a smokey, when in truth seeing them as a top four contender is perfectly logical? That makes sense. Yeah, I'm on the bandwagon too. They played some great footy at times last year, and so often faded away and let it count for nothing. The only question I have is how they'd cope with a bad run of injuries, which they haven't had to deal with for a couple of years. Scott is a big fan of a stable first 22 and if he can't field one things might get tricky in a tight year.
Macca
Guest
Cameron - If you go on to round 4 & 5 North play Sydney in Sydney and Collingwood, Cartlon have Port in Melb, Richmond, Essendon, Melbourne & the Bulldogs - I think I would rather be in the blues shoes than Norths.
Cameron Rose
Expert
You're absolutely right Darren, but that back six will have grown from the experience, and how much will they appreciate having Dal Santo float back there to calm things down. I think it's right to believe that they will have addressed these issues.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Haha, sorry for letting the cat out of the bag Mick! Minor premiership is a bold call indeed, taking over the likes of Hawthorn, Freo and Sydney. As you say, they really do tick so many boxes. External expectations will be pretty high for a team that finished tenth, and internally, they'll definitely be setting themselves for a top four position. Will the weight of that expectation be a burden?
Cameron Rose
Expert
I'd say North will have a friendlier draw than most others fighting for that 4th-6th position. They start off with Essendon, the Dogs and Port in Melbourne. They'll be fancying a 3-0 start, which they'll need as a base for a top four finish.
Bill
Guest
For many years I have been hearing that the roos will have a good year. I believe last year may have been there good year and quite possibly may have blown it.
Cat
Roar Guru
North's defense is still way way to porous and susceptible to rebounds, I reckon bottom half of the 8 is where they will finish.
Darren
Guest
Defence is there issue. It wasn't bad lu k that cost them last year it was the inability to control the game. Until they can address that they will only be competing for a bottom 8 spot. Carlton comparison is a good one as they had the same problem under Ratten.
Macca
Guest
Alice Springs - I think every supporter of every team I listed would think exactly the same thing - manly becasue the "close ones" are generally against other teams competing for the same spot.
alicesprings
Guest
If they can overcome teams in the close ones, which i think they will, they are a shoe in for the top 6.
Macca
Guest
Definitely qualifies as a bold statement - not syaing it is wrong but it is definitely bold - I reckon 13 teams could lay claims to be a top 8 side, at the very least 6 but probably 8 would be possible top 4 and there are 3 teams (Hawthon, Sydney & Freo) most people would have pushing for the number 1 spot - to tip anybody for anything is a big call but to filter 1 side out as the minor premier, especially one outside the consensus top 3, is deifnitely bold.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Cameron, I completely agree that when everyone else is calling a team a 'smoky', they are no longer a 'smoky'. It's just that, just, well.... they were MY smoky first! Ah well... the (not so) secret is out. I'd perhaps go further than top four speculation though and give them my tip for the minor premiership. Not sure if that qualifies for a 'bold statement' or not but there's a lot in their favour this year. One of the best draws, one of the best trade periods (got Nicky Dal without giving up much), their list is at a good stage (plenty of 20-22 year olds last year who weren't quite ready to step up), last year went badly enough that complacency shouldn't be an issue and there'd have been some 'lessons learned' (you'd hope). They sure tick a lot of boxes. The one they lack is September experience. This group has never even been to a prelim, so getting any more enthusiastic than 'minor premiership' would be the epitome of bold for mine.
Macca
Guest
I like you confidence Ash but this year there aren't many teams that can claim a lock on the top 6 - if you look at it Hawthorn, Sydney & Freo would be in most peoples top 3 - then you have Richmond, North, Geelong, Carlton, Essendon, Collingwood, Adelaide, Port & West Coast plus possibly the Suns looking at the remaing 5 spots in the 8 - I see North as a good side but I don't see them that far ahead of the other 9 listed that they can be a lock on top 6.