The England versus Australia match overnight was a cracker for a number of reasons. Neither country enjoys losing to the other at any point, but less than a year out from the World Cup, England took an important moral victory and were deserved winners.
Australia also finished with a 1-3 record for the Spring Tour.
However, as a Wallabies supporter, I’m actually not that bothered and I’ll explain why. I feel we have more to gain by losing that match.
Michael Cheika will take a look at the stats from the England match and surely learn an important lesson. If you looked at some of the stats alone, you would assume Australia won by a fair margin: 66 per cent possession, 70 per cent time in opposition half, 559 metres run against England’s 169, 7 missed tackles to England’s 25.
The previous week, similar trends emerged from the Ireland game, albeit not as lopsided. Yet the teams on the wrong side of the stats board finished ahead on the most important stat – points scored.
The narrative of the game played out exactly like the Ireland game as well. England played to their strengths – or you could say played to our glaring forward pack deficiency – and kicked with much more purpose and accuracy.
Like Ireland, they weren’t interested in rumbling up the field, phase after phase like Australia does, and does well. They enlist their smart and accurate kickers, who constantly put Australia under pressure. So although their run metres were dwarfed by Australia’s, if there was a metric for tactical kicking effectiveness, it would be no contest, England by a country mile.
I stated that I’m not too disappointed by the loss. I feel this because I know Michael Cheika is a smart man, and he will realise England sucker punched Australia by playing simple and effective Test rugby.
Cheika now has a bit of time to realise this and tweak his tactics a little.
I am all for retaining the style of rugby that Cheika set up with the Waratahs – I think all who watched the game would agree that Australia were far more dangerous with the pill in hand – and this is a key asset we need to build our game around.
However there is room for more variety in our game plan, and that means being better at the boring but effective tactical kicking department.
In my opinion, Quade Cooper has shown the most promise in that area. I feel he is more likely to find space and make territory. Not only that, he also appears sharper, fitter and more mature with ball in hand than previously.
How to fit him in is the harder question. I felt the decision to sub Cooper in early was a good one, despite Bernard Foley starting to find cracks in the defence. It’s unfair to stick a player of his style in with only 10 minutes left and expect them to go ahead and change the result.
Looking ahead to the World Cup and stating the obvious, somehow we need to bolster our pack because giving away so many scrum penalties is unacceptable. I don’t have the answer, but I’m not the scrum coach either.
Australia now has an opportunity for Cheika to actually take a breath and apply the lessons learnt from the tour. I am also sure he will counsel Michael Hooper on some of the finer points of decision making.
I am a huge Hooper fan. His engine is massive, and you can’t fault what he brings to the team as a player, leading by example. However, his captaincy can do with some refinement
For example, Australia had a penalty in the final minute.
The ball should have been hurled at Foley for an attempt at drop goal, which may have given Australia just enough time to receive a kick off, and who knows, make their way up the field for a try.
Low percentage play? Definitely. But better than the 0 per cent play of tap and go, which at best, could only result in seven points and guaranteed full time. That decision was just a snippet of where Hooper can improve.
Taking points on offer is the other area. Hooper has shown confidence in his team by electing to kick for touch when kickable penalties are awarded.
But consider this. Using a probability that Foley kicks at around 75 per cent, the expected average return on penalty attempts is therefore three points x 75 per cent, which is 2.25 points per attempt.
To achieve the same average result, Australia needs to score a try approximately a third of the time (6.5 points per try x 33 per cent = 2.17 points).
This just isn’t happening. Chuck the ball to Foley and build some pressure on the scoreboard. Surely we learnt that from the All Blacks Test in Sydney?
So despite a superficially poor record, Australia have shown enterprise and danger and have plenty of tweaks that can be easily changed. And if someone can check that the forward pack have studs on their boots, we’re a dead certainty!
Issac Maw
Guest
I personally believe Folau belongs on the wing with QC at fullback he showed coming on against england he is able to run the ball but also a tactical kicker
RobC
Roar Guru
Hi Realist TRC14: Starting WB scrums were good v all teams except Argies in Mendoza. Smacking happened after Slips or Kepu were replaced, on Auckland 7 v 8. Happy to chronicle each game. Its in each of live blogs. EOYT14: It is as you mentioned
Upfromdown
Guest
What could previous coaches like McKenzie, Deans etc do when the S15 was on? Could they actually coach players (whilst appearing for the provinces) in the way he wants them to play for the Wallabies? In regards to your last question, the ARU asked Cheika to do the job and he said yes on certain conditions including coaching the Tahs. If the ARU had not agreed then Cheika likely would have said no. So in this case the issue lies with the ARU not Cheika.
Realist
Guest
Hi Rob They've been smacked around quite a few times. Particularly against the Argies, SA, Wales, Ireland and England. The Wallaby scrum was under the hammer all night against the Poms.
WhoDis
Roar Rookie
yes I went to that too and yes they looked motivated.. How did that game end?
Cam Fay
Guest
yep. Fair call. Anybody really. Matt Dunning?
stu
Guest
Foley had been subbed off for Cooper well before the final penalty. Whom is the renowned 45+m drop kick artist that Hooper needed to toss the ball to? Nic White?
SandBox
Roar Guru
whilst you make some good points, the root cause of why we are already 'building' for 2019, is player power. There was an old sign in some establishments, installed by some bosses: "All employees must wash before coming to work. If I need to kiss your ass to get you to work, then I at least want it to be clean". The Cheika Wallabies new motto
Nobrain
Guest
After watching all games played by Aus this year and having and independant view since I am not from Australia I came to the conclusion that the problem starts with the front five . IMO the team has only one prop that is worth to mention although he is not good at scrums, he is very good with ball in hand: Slipper. The rest of the props are below average by international standards. The same goes tho the hooker position where Moore appears to be the onlyone that it worth to mention, Faringa, mmm!!! In the second raw the problems are bigger, to have promoted that big young monster means that that there is not much talent left in that position. I think that also need someone more powefull than McCalman playing at eight but he is ok, nothing special.The rest of the positions are well covered and with quality subtitutes that can make an impact on the game at any time and a big headache for the opponets when they managed to move the ball around. The scrum and the breakdown are the biggest problems. Rugby starts by getting the ball and the front five have a lot to do in that regard, if you do not fix that you will be in trouble in RWC 2015.
Bernie Larkham
Guest
Sio was being trained to be a thp at the start of the intl season, then he got injured and all of a sudden the hinge was our only backup
Kiwi in US
Guest
It is all bad for OZ at the moment. The WB's will get what they deserve as will any national team. Rome was not built in a day and nor will the WB turnaround. IMO as I have read the ROAR for about a year now, I have learned a lot about rugby in the land of oz. The dislike between the NSW and QLD opposing factions is hurting to the common good of all pulling together for the national team. It reminds me of the 91 NZ team that had two coaches. One from each of the two big camps in NZ at the time. From what I remember it was pretty divisive stuff, in the aftermath of the exit in Dublin. One constant though in the NZ system is the pyrimid structure of the NPC, which then feeds onto the super and national side. OZ is on the right track focusing on the grassroots and eventually the cream will rise. An emphasis on the forwards has to a priority at the grassroots below the national comp and up. From what I understand Robbie Deans understood this and spent a lot of time at grassroots. There is a lot of talent in the backs in OZ and always will be, but one flashy player has never gone out and beaten a team all by themself. It just can't happen. So with that, the current set up will do well to get to the knock out stages of next years RWC and definitely could. One thing they can improve on would be to get super fit and conditioned. It is probably the quickest fix and an attainable goal this close to the RWC. This years 6 nations will be most interesting and I would be interested in the rugby structures in Ireland and Wales. I expect Ireland's rebuild started some years ago. OZ is getting what they deserve but Rome was not built in a day.
Wardad
Guest
Sorry thought you said ''whining ugly '' but thats another story altogether .......
Wardad
Guest
Mate I was at the Brissie test and the Wallabies looked p!ssed off enough to come out firing as I knew they would .So why cant they keep the flame burning ?
Wardad
Guest
Your avatar reminds me of the Simpsons episode where Homers chasing his pig on a spit shouting ''its still good ,its still good !"'as it gets more soiled by the second ,like the poor bloody Wallabies.
Shane D
Roar Rookie
Regarding Cooper being an answer to the tactical kicking issue. While he is good with the boot, the way the Wallabies use him in defence opens up a big weakness in defending the kicking game from the opposition. Playing him on the wing in defence as they did once again last night, exposes hm under the high ball. I think he had been on for a few minutes & once England realised where he was lined up, the first garryowen was sent his way & he fluffed it.
Moreton Bait
Roar Pro
Remove the brackets Sheek, the pun's a good'un!
Si
Guest
Early in the waratahs super rugby season they had painful losses to the force and the blues. Interestingly enough in those games especially I'm the force the stats were similar to the Ireland and England games. Huge amounts if possession but unable to maintain go forward ball. Cheka managed to turn it around but the waratahs had an inform Skelton and potgeiter, to boost the forward pack. Which was probably better than the pack representing in the EOYT. I am still slightly bamboozled by the McMahon and hooper in the same back row but thats for another day.
sheek
Roar Guru
I just love the eternal optimism of some rugby Roarers. I've always believed positive affirmation should have some roots in reality, but never mind. I've looked at the winning world cup teams of 1987-91-95-99-2003-07-11 & I guess only an eternal Wallaby optimist could think that the 2015 Wallabies, even at full strength, can emulate these seven champion teams. They are so far from being worthy world cup champions it's not funny anymore. Let's face up to a brutal reality - in many respects this Wallabies outfit is playing as well as they're capable of playing; as well as their talents allow them to play. That's the truth. My understanding is that a person has to perform two proven miracles to be declared a saint (by the Vatican). Michael Cheika has an almighty job (no pun intended) on his hands. ;-)
"Bowled Shane"
Guest
Agreed- he should be given a period if time to prove himself given the situation he took the role under... But do you think it's in the wallabies best interests to have Cheika coaching NSW next year?
eagleJack
Roar Guru
If you don't have a glass half full attitude, then how on earth have you ever supported the Wallabies? We were ordinary under Connolly, ordinary under Deans, ordinary under McKenzie and now ordinary under Cheika. But as always, Im hopeful that there is light at the end of the tunnel. If anything atleast we are talking about the scrum, and it being a focus again. Perhaps too early to have any significant change prior to RWC15. But hey, you never know. And that is part and parcel of being a Wallabies supporter. Maybe, just maybe, we might put it all together for more than one good game per year.