Am I going off prematurely? Or should I stifle my early crow? Is there a possibility of a Perth Glory versus Wellington Phoenix grand final?
Well, judging by the good form of Glory and the Nix, most definitely.
A Glory-Phoenix grand final may not be the most appealing match-up for the FFA, or the broadcasters, Fox Sports and SBS, as I’m sure they all want either a Sydney or Melbourne team involved.
But nine years ago, the FFA did want Wellington as part of the competition, so from their point of view, they reap what they sow.
Heading into the Asian Cup break, Perth are four points clear at the top of the ladder, while Wellington and Melbourne Victory are equal second. I think it’s fabulous that we are seeing two different teams doing well.
We are often accustomed to having perennial finalists such as the Central Coast Mariners or the Brisbane Roar near the top. However, both are languishing outside of the top six.
The key reason for their struggles has been their poor recruitment drives for season 10. The Mariners let go of Michael McGlinchey, Bernie Ibini, Trent Sainsbury and a few others. The Roar haven’t recovered from losing Besart Berisha and Ivan Franjic.
On the coaching front, the Roar sacked Mike Mulvey just a few months after guiding Brisbane to the title, while there are doubts about the ability of Mariners coach Phil Moss.
But in the main, neither the Roar or the Mariners have replaced those players.The same can be said for Asian Champions League champions, the Western Sydney Wanderers. Following their huge success in making two grand finals in their first two seasons, they are now unbelievably without a win after 12 games and are running stone motherless last.
Just like the Roar and the Mariners, the Wanderers haven’t replaced Shinji Ono, Aaron Mooy or Youssouf Hersi.
Compare that with Glory and the Phoenix, they have recruited well. Glory have brought in key signings like Hersi, Andy Keogh, Dino Đulbić and Nebojša Marinković, while Phoenix have improved their team with Nathan Burns, Michael McGlinchey, Roly Bonevacia and Roy Krishna.
Burns is the A-League’s leading goalscorer with 10 and his form has been rewarded with a Socceroos Asian Cup squad call-up.
Meanwhile, the other teams have had their issues. The Newcastle Jets have had disharmony on and off the field, with the Jets ownership up in the air due to the inevitable exit of Tinkler, question marks around Phil Stubbins’ coaching, and captain Kew Jaliens, who publicly lambasted his players in one post-match interview.
Sydney FC started well, but in the last couple of months the Sky Blues have lost four players for the season, Nicky Carle, Sasa Ognenovski, Corey Gamerio and Ali Abbas.
There is the possibility that all NSW teams, Sydney FC, Western Sydney, Mariners and Jets could miss out on the finals. Wouldn’t that be a shock. Melbourne City on the other hand don’t have enough depth in the back four to win the title, but will be more than happy to make the finals.
The two teams that could trouble the Glory and Phoenix is FFA Cup champions Adelaide United and A-League powerhouse Melbourne Victory. Victory did improve their squad in the off-season with Besart Berisha and Ben Khalfallah. While Adelaide remained largely the same from their impressive season last year.
Incidentally, both Victory and the Reds have hit a flat spot in recent weeks. Victory have lost players to the Socceroos on a few occasions and it may have disrupted the continuity of Kevin Muscat’s men.
While with Adelaide, they are perhaps suffering from a cup final hangover. However, in their last match, Adelaide did defeat Perth away from home. It was Adelaide’s third win against Perth in all competitions this season. Looks like Adelaide has the wood on Perth.
I expect both Victory and United to be there when the whips are cracking. The Glory, Nix, Reds and Victory are in my opinion the four main contenders for the championship.
The lesson to be learnt from season 10 is that all A-League clubs need to recruit well following the loss of players. Western Sydney, Central Coast, Newcastle and Brisbane are finding out the hard way in this campaign.
With Australia hosting the Asian Cup, maybe now is the right time for those four clubs to do some scouting among the 16 teams that will take part in the tournament. Perth and Wellington are benefiting well from their off-season coups, and in a few months’ time, the long distance derby could well be the headline act.
Ryan
Guest
"Its good to hear that an optimistic supporter still has faith and not just a bandwagoner." To be honest, when you've seen the roar do some of the things they do/done. It's hard not to have faith in them. I'll have faith in them until its logically impossible.
Anthony Ferguson
Guest
Christ better hope those two don't make the gf or the FFA will cancel it out of spite - or force them to play it in Sydney.
britesparke
Roar Rookie
A different take on the subject........ This is for Roarers who may remember the old Mission Impossible series on TV (not the overdone movies with Tom Cruise!) Substituting Ernie for "Jim", the start of the episode usually went something like this........ Takes tape out of envelope and fits it on tape player (no smartphones with sms here!) and proceeds to play tape. " Your mission Ernie, should you decide to accept it, is to reach and win the HAL grand final and bring back the coveted toilet seat to Wellington where it will be sent to the Maintenance Department, fitted with hinges, and used to refurbish the executive ensuite." 'This tape will now self destruct in five seconds" Mission Impossible theme then blares in the background. Hmmm.....I wonder what Ernie is doing in his office now !
Cantab
Guest
I can confirm the nix are not elligable for either the ACL or the OCL. Nor have they pushed to have that changed.
Simon Smale
Roar Guru
I think the impact of the Asian Cup break shouldn't be underestimated in looking at the second half of the season. It's not common to have a total break mid season - and although I'm sure most of the clubs will be in full training mode, maybe even play a few friendlies to keep the competitive touch going, it's going to affect different teams differently. It's actually going to be pretty interesting, it could give some clubs a chance to regroup - namely last seasons finalists, and give others time to consolidate on what they are doing well.
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
"As a supporter of Australian football, are we happy with a NZ club representing Australia in the ACL?" If the NIX represent the A-League in the ACL it means they've proven to be better than 9 Aussie teams. Absolutely, they'd deserve a spot. Most likely, since the NIX are not part of the AFC, they will be ineligible to play ACL.
kipper
Roar Rookie
Fussball - I think Mister Football means that it could well be the most GEOGRPHICALLY spread out top 4"
Arnold Krewanty
Guest
When Cardiff made the 2008 FA Cup, the English FA had to change the rules to allow Welsh clubs to represent England in UEFA competitions. Swansea since won the League Cup. Fine. The question for many football fans to consider is are we happy with a similar scenario here? As a supporter of Australian football, are we happy with a NZ club representing Australia in the ACL? In the Nix squad, there are currently only 3 Australian players. What a great outcome for Australian football.
britesparke
Roar Rookie
Far too early in the season to start predictions about the make up of the grand final. Glory are strong contenders for one spot. But the other.......there are two excellent teams that will have something to say about the Nix's involvement in a grand final. Victory and Adelaide will figure strongly in the finals mix. Agree with Arnold that should the Nix go on to win the grand final - this would be an embarrassment to the FFA in attempting to build a strong mainland competition- only for a NZ based side to benefit. Sure the Phoenix are in to make up the number of teams and were invited in by the FFA. Technically they are Oceania along with Auckland City. Future expansion may require three teams from the mainland so that we can have a truly domestic HAL.
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
"Not having the Toilet seat champion in the ACL would be an embarrassment for the FFA & Australian football. " Bit like Monaco winning Ligue 1? Or, Swansea or Cardiff winning the FA Cup, or EPL?
Arnold Krewanty
Guest
If Nix win the GF does it mean Australia misses an ACL spot? Not having the Toilet seat champion in the ACL would be an embarrassment for the FFA & Australian football. What benefit does Australian Football gain from having a foreign-based team winning its Australian football league? IMO A-league is for Australian clubs to develop Australian juniors and strengthen the National squad's outcomes on the world-stage - not NZ's. This is an Australian National Football League, not an international tournament. Let the Nix participate in the NZ football competition, qualify via Oceania into the Club World Cup. Same outcome for them, just less club profits playing domestically. In addition, the Nix add no value to the A-league in general. Guaranteed crowds are down when Nix are the visiting team. No-one is interested!
Ballymore
Guest
And Palestine could win the Asian Cup. Historically we know that only twice (CCM in 05/06 and PER in 11/12) has a team from outside the top 2 contested the GF. Both lost. For all the carry-on about how unfair the finals system is, in every year the cream has risen to the top, while no mid-table team has ever gone a magical finals run.
Lionheart
Guest
Phoenix don't qualify for ACL so can't see how it will throw a spanner in the works. They simply aren't in it. As for their licence, I think the NZ based team has been good, at least as good as any other team or any other alternative team, for the league. Sure, their crowds have been down and they add little to the TV numbers, but they do bring another dimension with potential to grow. I'd like to see them stay in the league, but not at the expense of any Australian team.
Brick Tamland of the pants party
Guest
Well if the league looks as it does today as we head into the finals then yes there's a very good chance of a Glory v Nix final. I think if you look through the A-league's history especially recently the top two generally find themselves in the showpiece. Loads of football to come of course but i don't see either side capitulating unless ravaged by injury.
Rodger King
Roar Rookie
I'm guessing you haven't been watching every Victory game of late. Like a true loyal supporter no other club performance counts or can be explained away. But if you were honest with yourself you were played off the park by WSW even though you jagged a win. AUFC will always make your spincer twitch and Glory have taken you apart once already, on your on patch. So like the other 3 sides currently at the top end it will come down to who you have available on any given match day and how they perform.
AZ_RBB
Guest
Damn right we can! ACL 2016 here we come :D
Arnold Krewanty
Guest
Not a Likely prediction, however a Nix GF win would really throw a spanner in the FFA & AFC works! Nix licence expires 2016 with no hint of it being renewed (and nor should it).
TomC
Roar Guru
The Asian Cup break means there's every chance the table could look totally different by the end of the season. I sincerely hope Perth fall away, because they're just awful to watch as a neutral.
jamesb
Guest
"’ll keep my orange and black glasses on just a little bit longer if you don’t mind jamesb" Its good to hear that an optimistic supporter still has faith and not just a bandwagoner.
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
"Could well be the most spread out top four we have ever witnessed." Huh?? Have you been watching any A-League? Do you look at the ladder, before arriving at your above forecast? This season, after 14 matches, 6 points separates #1 from #4 in the A-League. That's the TIGHTEST Top 4 we've had in the last 5 season. Points difference between 1-4 after 14 matches 2014: 10 2013: 7 2012: 11 2011: 9