Super Rugby is five weeks into the season, which feels like a good time to hand down the first judgements.
As in recent years, I’m running three relatively simple categories: the teams going about as well (or as ordinary) as I expected them to, and then the over- and under-achievers.
Most of these ratings are based on my loose pre-season predictions from early February.
The ‘as expected’ teams
I’ll get the easy ones out of the way first.
I had the Chiefs and Brumbies finishing in the top six, and the Bulls too, and after five rounds, the Brumbies lead the comp overall, the Chiefs sit fourth (but third on points), and the Bulls are currently outside the six by a solitary point.
The Bulls are hot and cold, but are showing me enough to remain confident in my guestimations; the Brumbies and Chiefs’ class has been evident from the opening weekend of the season.
The Crusaders were also in my top six, and their display against the Lions on the weekend showed that with the cavalry returning, things are starting to click. They’re currently fourth in New Zealand, but they’ll improve over the rest of the season.
The Force had me worried at the start of the season, and nothing yet has eased that for me. Back in February, I said that their young backrowers would have to play out of their skins to compete, and then they’d still have to find points. Well, Ben McCalman has been superb thus far, but he’s been the Lone Ranger. And while they sit mid-table in terms of tries scored, no team has conceded more. Not even the Reds. They still worry me.
The Cheetahs have had the odd moment, but are giving inconsistency a bad name. The Blues’ have the equal most bonus points in the competition, but they remain none from five and the bye will fancy its chances against them this weekend coming.
The over-achievers
I started the season by saying I wouldn’t back the Stormers “with someone else’s money”. I had them finishing behind the Lions in the South African conference, because I just couldn’t see how the Stormers would trouble anyone, let alone find points.
Well, didn’t I get that wrong! The Stormers-Chiefs game on Sunday morning was, for 60 minutes, just about the match of the season – just as much for the way the Stormers were able to find space through the Chiefs, as for the way the Chiefs got themselves back into the game and eventually, into the lead.
I now can’t see why the Stormers can’t finish in the top two in South Africa; I like the look of them a whole lot better than the Sharks, who I’ll come to shortly.
I had the Hurricanes pegged as the pre-season surprise packets, so tick that box. I just had a feeling – as many people would have – that if the Hurricanes could deliver in the forwards, their backs are as good as any in the competition. There’s no reason why they can’t carry on from here.
The Highlanders didn’t feature in any pre-season predictions, but I saw no reason why they couldn’t sneak into the playoffs just as they did last season. Toppling the Chiefs in Hamilton brought some recognition, but their last-hour demolition of the Waratahs in Dunedin on Saturday has really got them noticed, particularly in Australia. When given the chance to counter-attack, there are few teams more devastating.
The Rebels are a funny one. I expected great improvement, but because I also expected the Force to be there or thereabouts, and the Reds to even sneak into third, I had the Rebels coming fifth in Australia. They’re two and two after the first month, but are defending better, competing better at the breakdown, and look a whole lot more threatening in attack than in 2014.
They might be the biggest beneficiaries in the Australian conference of last year’s NRC, and good luck to them. I hope they can push on from here; they should be aiming for a playoffs berth.
The under-achievers
As I mentioned, I expected the Reds to run around mid-table, and even that if Bill Pulver’s dream of three Australian teams on the finals was to come true, it might be the Reds sneaking into sixth spot.
No, I don’t know what I was thinking, and no, I’m not sure where their next win comes from.
There’s been talk since even before Saturday night that there could be upwards of seven players back for the Lions in Round 7, but what if nothing changes? Can we really rule it out?
Currently the Lions have scored one less try, but the Reds’ points for tally is 23 points fewer than the Lions, and like their overall differential, is the worst in the competition.
The Lions were another team I expected to run mid-table, and though they showed glimpses beating the Blues, they weren’t great against the Crusaders. Hard to see how they get out off the bottom few from here.
The two biggest underachievers, therefore, have been the Waratahs and Sharks. I had both finishing top six, and while the Sharks are even sixth currently, and the Tahs eighth, neither have been convincing.
Both lost games they shouldn’t have in Round 1, both bounced back with wins as they should have in Round 2, and both have been up and down since then. And that’s not to say their season is over, of course.
The Sharks put four tries past the Cheetahs on Saturday night, but do we read much into that? They got the win, a bonus point even, but they’re still a long way off their best. They have a really helpful draw this season, don’t leave the republic until mid-May, and two-and-three feels like a wasted start.
The Waratahs are similarly a long way from their best, probably a combination of other teams catching them and a rather slow start.
The last two weeks tell their story: they couldn’t find four tries against a Reds team they really should’ve beaten by 20 or 30, and then after getting out to 12-0 against the Highlanders found themselves playing into the counter-attacking hands of the southerners. Literally, in Israel Folau’s case.
Their scrum is having mixed results, while their lineout ranks ninth for effectiveness. And after conceding only 1.5 tries per regular season game last year, they must be concerned about leaking 3.5 tries a game for the first month of 2015.
Much improvement is required.
snowman
Guest
Train, has anyone told you "you look just like Clint Eastwood"
Combesy
Roar Guru
daft comment peter. Just because one supports another state, it does not eliminate them from commenting on other states.
Harry Jones
Expert
Stormers get a bye before they tour. They've selected their touring party, out of which I'd pick this matchday 23 for the NZ portion: Kitshoff (Kebble) Ntubeni (Mbonambi) Malherbe (Koch) Etzebeth Botha (Kleyn) Burger Rhodes (Kolisi) Carr (Vermeulen is being rested for the Highlander game, per SARU rules; when he is back for the Canes, I'd rest Carr). Groom (Schreuder) Catrakilis (Coleman) Leyds de Allende de Jongh van Wyk Kolbe (Jones)
Harry Jones
Expert
As usual, your essay is as good as Steven Kitshoff's hair is red. So far, this is my Super Rugby 2015 Team of the Tournament XXIII: Kitshoff (Sio), Moore (Coles), Koch (Woodcock), Arnold (Abbott), PSDT, Labuschagne (Kaino), Cane, Vermeulen, A. Smith (Genia), Pollard (Cruden), Savea, de Allende, Fekitoa, Naholo, B. Smith (Lambie).
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
State based argument? Jameswm commenting solely on the tahs? What else am I supposed to elaborate on?
Jameswm
Guest
Ouch.
PeterK
Roar Guru
no Combesy it was TWAS who started the state based argument, he couldn't help but give a generalised jab at the tahs. You though resorted to immature personal attacks instead of focusing on the discussion at hand or staying out of it. Your contributions consisted of personal attacks so why bother , it adds nothing to the discussion and brings down the general level of the roar.
Combesy
Guest
Sorry Peter was it me that started the petty state based argument? It is a fair statement to say that a lot of tah fans on here have been saying what train is saying. That this form is no different to last year and that it will all be good they're still one of the top super teams in the Comp. Is that the reality of the tahs form and season though?
taylorman
Roar Guru
I've read and listened to everyone, the media, the Roarers, jk himself, graham Lowe today and almost unanimously a new coach is the solution. I guess I'm prepared to see out JK's effort no matter how long it takes because I'm not convinced 'a new coach' will suddenly make all the roses bloom again. Exactly the same thing was said about Lam and so far both coaches have used the ...'it takes three years to build a side into a winning team...blah blah' Well that's all rubbish. Rennie and Smith did it first pop. And frankly, I don't want to sit and listen to another coach uttering the three years phrase again as though it's some unwritten right with this side. Sort it out JK, and sort it out now. If not this week, then next week, then the week after...whatever it takes. Just sort it.
Johnson
Guest
Your right.....sigh.....I wanted to give mooney credit but you made such a good point that I can't ever give credit to s previous coach without applying it to every previous coach. Dammit!!!!!
Common Sense
Guest
Just quickly on Jimmy Cowan, he looks to be one of the Blues better players.
Common Sense
Guest
On paper the blues have a team that could match it with most international sides. But they are just poor, really really poor. This is a team that should be winning titles, not just there or thereabouts but winning titles, but they aren't. The Blues need a great coach. Wynne Gray put forward Robbie Deans name and to be honest I don't mind that idea. Another site put forward the Tasman Makos coach Keiran Keen, that's not a bad choice either. A name no one has mentioned yet is the man currently helping the city planners of Christchurch rebuild their city, someone should give him a call. (Pssst. Just FYI it's Ewen Mckenzie.)
RobC
Roar Guru
cheers mate. Life's too short for tears, and finger pointing. All we can hope for now, is for Reds and Blues to have a perfect record for the remaining 12 rounds. Then they can play against each other in the finals. Or they can combine. And form the mighty 'Purple': - have kickass pack from Auckland - with tricky backs from Qld (some imported from Auckland too) - Maybe even have a dual coach responsibility! - Unbeatable :D
Crazy Horse
Roar Pro
I Wish I could agree with tou about my beloved Force being over achievers. Except for week one they've been very dissapointing. It's as if they gave everything they had to wipe out the shame being thrashed in the corresponding corresponding game last season. They've had significant injury problems, especially in the Prop department but also in the backline. However the biggest loss appears to be the preseason injury to the Captain. His absence is very noticable, especially in the one dimensional attacks. He also most probably would have take rhe points last week resulting in a win over the Rebels. The cavalry is coming. Angus Cottrell, Dane Haylett-Petty and Luke Morahan are set to make their returns from injury during the Force’s two-match South African leg. The Honey Badger has arrived with more coming. Haylett-Petty (foot) has been sidelined since Week One while Cottrell (ankle) and Morahan (hamstring) have missed three and one match respectively. All have gone on the South African tour. By they time they return, hopefully with at least one win, Hodgo should be fit. It's not to late to make the finals but they'd better get on with it. The Rebels on rhe other hand have been very impressive. No dissgrace to be beaten by the on fire Brumbies Don't be surprised if they continue onwards and upwards. The Tahs have been dissapointingly ordinary and the Reds just woeful.
PeterK
Roar Guru
combesy - so people can bag the tahs as much as they want, claim they are entitled and whatever and its always fine. Anyone dare to then throw that back and they are at fault. Also yet once again you are showing your immaturity, you cannot just stick to the discussion, instead yet again revert to personal attacks and name calling.
Combesy
Guest
Again, petty! You're acting like a sobbing petulant teenager
PeterK
Roar Guru
twas - You do realise the tahs have been more successful in professional super rugby than the reds. Reds have actually lost more games than they have won 243 games 118 win 5 draws120 losses so overall they have been losers Tahs 243 games 132 wins 4 draws 107 losses Tahs 1 win, 2 finals, 3 semis Reds 1 win, 0 finals, 4 semis, 1 qf
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Sharing a view that doesn't conform with yours is not bias.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
It's still better than 9 other teams. How many Australian teams have managed to sustain it for 4 years or longer? No you can't chop and change things. If the players inherited (regardless of their prior performance) are attributed to the previous coach than that applies to every team. McKenzie did FA with the Waratahs too, since he inherited Dwyer's team.
HarryT
Guest
I agree TWAS. The Reds average just over four line breaks per game which is less than half the average of their opponents (9.4). This was a problem last year, so you have to ask what has changed. I have no idea what the Red's attacking game plan is, except that it will be better when everyone gets back from injury. Who are the players who are going to make a break? When was the last time Genia or Cooper took on the line? And the enthusiasm levels seem very low. It is like they are calculating Euro exchange rates when they should trying to find a hole in the oppositions' defence.