Friday Night Forecast - AFL Round 4: Richmond vs Melbourne

The Tigers host the Demons in this week’s Friday Night Football.

Our third straight week of sub-par Friday Night Football looms on Anzac Eve. The Tigers are an on-the-verge-of-the-eight team, while Melbourne are an improving bottom tier side. We’ll get a stronger match up under lights soon, I promise.

But let’s persevere. First of all, how did we go with last week’s forecast?

Prediction: Collingwood def. St Kilda by 24 points
Actual: Collingwood def. St Kilda by 74 points

Another correct tip that was somewhat shy of the final margin. I’m not going to lie and say I watched this game in full, because I didn’t. I did watch a certain key forward, though, because I made a Bonus Prediction last week:

Prediction: T Cloke to kick five goals and take five marks inside 50
Actual: T Cloke kicks five goals and takes four marks inside 50

Dammit. That’s what I get for going all in. Cloke got his five, but was having a shocking night in front of the sticks until the last quarter – and the last part of the last quarter – where he kicked two goals. They weren’t really key forward goals, either… One Roarer predicted Cloke would get most of his goals in garbage time, so kudos to you.

I’m not a kicking coach. I can barely kick 30 metres with any semblance of accuracy. But I think I’m a better kick than Cloke was within the deep forward line on Friday.

Anyway, let’s stop talking about this game. Here’s this week’s Friday Night Forecast.

Melbourne Demons @ Richmond Tigers
Friday, 24 April
Bouncedown: 7:50PM (EST)
MCG, Melbourne, Victoria

In The Roar‘s expert tipping for this round, I called this another danger game for Richmond. That would make it three danger games in a row.

When will Richmond move beyond the will-they-or-won’t-they phase of their side’s development? Will they ever get beyond it?

Thus far, the Tigers have beaten teams I’ve predicted will finish 18th and 14th in my upcoming Improper Projections, and lost against the Bulldogs (who I upgraded to 12th, and have now lost a big chunk of their starters to injury). Among last season’s top eight, the Tigers have had easily the softest draw to this point, and yet sit on 2-1.

Trent Cotchin responded to his critics last week, reeling in three Brownlow votes as he ran around doing what he liked against the Lions.

Dustin Martin has started the season well, but hasn’t taken the full quantum leap I’d projected him to (get him some possessions on the outside, Tiges!) Bachar Houli continues to build his early season case for All Australian Half Back Flanker (six running bounces, 25 possessions and joint-second on inside 50s per game thus far). Jack Reiwoldt is on pace for a 70 goal season.

The building blocks are all there for Richmond, it just hasn’t quite come together for them for a full four quarters. Fortunately for them, their soft start to the year continues against a Melbourne side that is improving, but is still some way off escaping the bottom six of the ladder.

Bernie Vince as a tagger? I bet that wasn’t in his contract when he made the move from Adelaide. He was mighty effective on Patrick Dangerfield last week, holding the raging bull to 16 disposals (including just eight kicks), two clearances and two inside 50s. Who will he get the job on this week?

I don’t think it’ll matter. As colleague Cam Rose tweeted earlier this week, Richmond will still win a 17 v 17 contest regardless of who is taken out of the play by Melbourne.

It’s still a danger game, but Richmond have the talent to get over the line by 18 points.

That’s my Friday Night Forecast. What’s yours?