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Well Roarers, how did we go with last week’s forecast?
Prediction: West Coast def. Carlton by 15 points
Actual: West Coast def. Carlton by 69 points
Well, as we say in the biz, we were directionally accurate but somewhat off on the magnitude. Carlton served it up to the Eagles in the first quarter, but resembled tall, pointy orange objects from that point onwards as West Coast’s below-average midfield ensured Josh Kennedy was well fed.
Apparently Carlton are rebuilding now, but they’re undecided on whether the current chief is the right chief to lead them to their next run at the finals. For what it’s worth, Malthouse has shown he can take rebuilding sides to the flag twice before, so I think they should back him in.
Anyway, on to the on-field stuff. Here’s this week’s Friday Night Forecast.
St Kilda Saints @ Collingwood Magpies
Friday, 17 April
Bounce: 7:50PM (EST)
MCG, Melbourne, Victoria
After last week, this game has a lot of potential and a lot of ways it could play out.
Are Collingwood setting in for the long haul, playing kids, and pitching for a bottom-of-the-ladder finish in 2015? Before the season that’s what I thought they’d be doing.
The ‘Pies have been rebuilding underneath the radar over the past couple of years, moving a number of veterans and stalwarts along and acquiring draft picks on the way. They have the sixth-youngest and fifth least experienced list in the competition, according to Champion Data, just three years after losing to Geelong in the 2011 grand final.
St Kilda, on the other hand, are in the midst of a much more public rebuild following their grand final run and dramatic fall from grace in 2013. Their young-to-middle-age charges have started the year well, led by David Armitage and Shane Savage. Their form line is hard to read, following a home loss to GWS and an away win against the Gold Coast Suns in the first two weeks of the year.
The Pies may be down in their midfield come game time, with injury clouds hanging over Cadillac Scott Pendlebury and Mustang Taylor Adams.
Like last week, neither side exactly screams “I got this”. You could make a compelling case for St Kilda’s improving youth; you could make a compelling case for Collingwood’s top end talent. Although one bloke you’d put into that category is probably facing more scrutiny than the others: Travis Cloke.
Cloke is yet to fully repay the faith shown in him by the ‘Pies when he signed a key forward contract (they’re different to the rest: work out value and multiply by two, three or four depending on age) after the 2012 season. Cloke has averaged 2.5 goals per game since 2010 (when he signed his third Pies contract), but hasn’t lifted his rate under his new deal and kicked a meagre 39.30 in 2014. Most significantly, his contested marks per game have dropped from 3.8 in 2011 to just 1.6 in 2014.
It’s cliché, but Friday night is the biggest stage, and against an inexperienced and undersized defensive unit that conceded the most marks inside 50 per game last season, Cloke could have a big one. It may not be pretty, but Collingwood should get the job done by 24 points.
Bonus Prediction! Travis Cloke to take five marks inside 50, and kick five goals or more.
That’s my Friday Night Forecast. What’s yours?