It’s May, not even the midway point of the season, but regardless of the timing, it didn’t stop one thinking ahead to September prospects after glancing at the AFL ladder on a lazy Sunday morning.
There it was, two Western Australian teams and two Sydney teams snuggly filling the top-four spots on the table. I know it’s likely to – and most probably will – change dramatically between now and the end of August, but just indulge me for a moment please.
I know it’s nothing new for two interstate sides to play against one another in a grand final. We had three successive years of it from 2004 to 2006 with firstly Port Adelaide and Brisbane, then the Swans and Eagles in those pair of classics in 2005 and 2006.
And that 2005 decider when the Swans ended the longest of droughts, and is still the highest rating AFL grand final in history with an audience of almost 3.4 million from the mainland capitals.
But it would be so different to see a Fremantle-West Coast grand final – a Derby transplanted into the MCG. Much of Perth would close down for the weekend as Dockers and Eagles fans headed East.
But what if the other pair reached the decider?
Nobody would have ever envisaged an all-Sydney grand final (most would have never thought they would have seen two teams in Sydney, and many, a couple of decades ago, would have thought there would be none by now), and while I realistically doubt it will happen in 2015, the writing is now well and truly on the wall that it’s a genuine prospect for the imminent future.
The Swans were their typically tough best against Hawthorn, particularly in that first quarter when they were relentless at the ball, then again being able to rally and come back to win after being headed, albeit against a Hawks line-up missing the North Smith medal winner from the last time they met, Luke Hodge.
The Giants, well they continue to improve, and with Saturday’s win over Adelaide, they have now equalled their previous best season performance of six wins (the same as 2014), with just eight rounds played.
Look, a grand final between the Swans and Giants might still be a little way off, but how good would it be, particularly in Sydney?
I remember not that long ago when everyone in Sydney wanted the Swans out of town. They were an embarrassment and hardly ‘representing’ the city as the locals felt it should be. Haven’t those times changed with the Swans now perennial finalists?
When they reached the 2005 grand final and ultimately won it, the support from the entire city was amazing. Sure there were anti-AFL types who still hated them, but generally the sentiment was that of genuine goodwill.
I think a lot of it was pride for the city, but there was also an amount of ‘let’s show Melbourne that we can win their game’ about it as well.
Well, using that logic, imagine if two Sydney teams made the grand final?
Surely then, even NRL devotees would sit up and have a look, and perhaps a laugh at the absence of teams from ‘Australia’s sporting capital’, ‘in the VFL grand final’.
I’m sure there would be cries of having the grand final in Sydney at ANZ Stadium, but no, the grand final should always be at the MCG, and an all-Sydney affair in Melbourne would be better anyway. As I said it’s just a pipedream, but an interesting one I think.
Having said all that, at the moment – and we all know only too well how things can dramatically change – it’s hard to see the 2015 AFL grand final not featuring the Fremantle Dockers.
They just continue to roll on.
Their performance against North was brutal. They just seem to be able to do what they want, when they want, change gears if they need to, and brush aside any side. Looking at their draw, I can’t see them losing any of the next five – Adelaide and Gold Coast away, and Richmond, Collingwood, and Brisbane at home.
Then the biggest test, perhaps the biggest of the home-and-away season, the Hawks in Tasmania. Hawthorn have really owned the Dockers of late. Sure Freo beat them in Round 21 last season but before that they lost the previous six encounters.
They two sides have played in Tasmania seven times dating back to 2002 and Fremantle is winless in those games. And the last time the Purple men beat the Hawks away from Perth was back in 2001.
They are due, and if they are 13-0 heading into that clash, it would be a brave man to say win number 14 won’t arrive. But, I repeat, there’s a lot of water to go under the bridge and a lot of injuries, suspensions and dramas potentially around the corner.
But, right now, if I was a Dockers fan and hadn’t already done it, I’d be checking out accommodation and flights to Melbourne for late September.
Lroy
Guest
Yes, 100% correct. June and July are where the real contenders will step up. Players are starting to carry injuries, grounds a bit heavier, more wet conditions, teams getting more desperate as they realize they need to get a move on if they want to play finals etc.... anything up to now was just the entre. The good stuff is about to start ;-)
jax
Guest
I think most of us would agree that Freo, Sydney and Hawthorn will make the Top 4. That only leaves one spot up for grabs. Let's take a quick look at the home stretch to see if it offers any insights. I have not included the Dons as a tough game in this exercise. Crows have 6 tough games left and the Pies have 7 tough ones. The Dogs only have 5 tough games. GWS only has 6 left and the Tigers have 9 tough games (same as WC). Port have 7 tough games to finish their year. North has 6 tough games. WC has 9 tough games but they have a 3 game gap on Port and North and a much better percentage. Unless something dramatic happens with percentages WC essentially has an extra game up their sleeves due to their percentage. It's certainly going to be a tight finish for the 8 never mind the 4. I think it's a race between WC, Pies, Crows, Dogs and GWS. Port would have to have a mighty finish to make it from here. I'm not prepared to remove them from my calculations just yet. Who do you think will fill that final spot?
13th Man
Guest
The one thing that this article fails to realise is that West Coast and GWS are nowhere near the Grand Final yet! Freo and Sydney are probably your GF favourites but WC and GWS probably won't even make the top 4!
Tricky
Guest
Regardless, no team west or south of the murrray would be allowed that line up in their salary cap, the bulldogs list certainly would not attract the same salary - even with Boyd.
EddyJ
Guest
There's also the small matter of law – the AFL has a contract with the MCG to play all grand finals at the ground until 2037. But after that year (don't worry, it's only 22 years away), it would be exciting for home teams to host the AFL Grand Final in their home state.
jax
Guest
GF tickets and corporate packages are sold 12 months or longer in advance so logistically under the current format it's impossible for them to play the GF anywhere other than the MCG.
jax
Guest
The WC v Swans 2005 GF was the most watched GF in history so your comments don't make any sense. West Coast represents the state of WA, use your imagination can you.
TomC
Roar Guru
I wonder if anyone's ever done a survey or anything on this. After Fitzroy went under I continued to support Brisbane, as did every other Fitzroy fan I know, albeit not with the same passion as before. I've heard of other fans who switched to another club or gave up the game, but never actually met one. EddyJ is completely correct about the differences, by the way. The Fitzroy Football Club continued as a separate entity. 'Merger' is a misnomer for what happened in 1996.
Tricky
Guest
Sorry Mark & Jack, fact is that the majority of Fitzroy & South supporters did not follow Brisbane and Sydney sure a lot did but most didn't - I know I wouldn't because it is just not the same club - however you polish it it is what it is. Could you imagine a team like Collingwood moving to Darwin and being labelled Darwin? Tell me all now that they would go follow Darwin! yeah I know that would never happen but you get the drift.
Jack Smith
Roar Guru
You understand nothing of the club clearly..many South Melbourne supporters followed their club. Many others stayed in South Melbourne and continue to support the big red v with a touch of Sydney.
Michael huston
Guest
I would drop Pyke. I'd hardly say he is in good form. He was nothing more than dead weight on Saturday night. He can't take contested marks anymore like he was able to in 2012/2013, he is immensely slow, and he has no flexibility. At least Derickx can tackle and gives a hundred percent around the ground. It's time for the Swans to accept we're never going to be a dominant team in the ruck with our current list, so instead of going the Sandilands route, we should be going the David Hale route of someone who can be useful in other areas of the game. Best example: Zac Clarke. Derickx > Pyke.
Jrod
Guest
Naive will be a ratings bomb, ceteris Paribas. Good thing this is a ridiculous article and west coast and gws have dogs balls chance of top 4.
Timmuh
Roar Guru
Really? I think you'll find most football followers will watch the finals, and if their team isn't in it they don't care that much if teams from another state are in it. I would also call WA part of the game's heartlands. You can bet they would not be turning the TV off in droves.
Funktapuss
Guest
There is no Perth team in the league. There is 'West Coast', still have not found that place on the map. People will be switching off their tv's in the heartlands in their droves if they have WA and NSW clubs in the top four at seasons end. It would be the AFL equivalent of the GFC.
Mark
Guest
Again, only complaining after we recruited some good forwards. We had the exact same setup when we won in 2012. Why weren't you crusading against it then? I eagerly await your response.
Mark
Guest
Who do you drop? Pyke is in good form and there's no way you drop Reid, Goodes, Tip or Bud.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Well Gene, I don't know about "massive", but i) they have the reverse in much bigger proportions, Sydney and Brisbane have it only on the rare occasion. ii) You also only need to look at the players Brisbane have lost over the past few years , and may lose another of their first picks in Aish at the end of the year too, to see the lure of greener pastures takes some countering.
Mark
Guest
They'll disagree. You have no idea. Get off your high horse you clown.
Mark
Guest
I didn't realise your opinion counted for more than most other people. You do realise that there are heaps of South Melbourne supporters who willingly support Sydney? Most definitely not end of story :)
Mark
Guest
Why didn't you make this argument after 2012?