I’m scared. It’s not just because I’m a Broncos supporter at heart and they’ve lost two straight, but it’s the way other sides around them are picking up the pace moving into the NRL finals series.
Souths, Manly, and to some degree the Roosters have been meandering along all year, playing well below the potential we know they have.
Manly, in particular, sat rooted to the bottom of the table for far too long while off-field squabbles, injuries and contract negotiations took their toll on the team’s performance.
It even gave the board a great excuse to sack club legend Geoff Toovey.
In the two weeks since that decision, though, you’d think Trent Barrett had already arrived at the club. The team is playing with the reinvigorated energy of a side with a clean, shiny new coach.
Two consecutive demolitions of top four sides sees them lurking in ninth spot, and with the Raiders, Sharks, Eels and Roosters still to play, I’m backing them to make a Parramatta of 2009-esque run through the finals.
They mightn’t get all the way to the grand final, but if they’re in the top eight at the end of the regular season, I have little doubt they’re going to be one of the form sides.
But it’s a different feel to Parramatta. This is not a team of underdogs who are out to prove they can play with the big boys. This is a team of established superstars, likely playing their last season as a hyper-competitive outfit.
Kieran Foran and Matt Ballin are heading off, Anthony Watmough’s already gone, and Jamie Lyon, Steve Matai and Brett Stewart are nearing the end of their careers.
This is a year they should have made a tilt at the premiership. For much of 2015 they were inconceivably terrible. Now they’re hot.
South Sydney, despite a drubbing from Manly, are another side that scares me. Lurking in the top four, and I’m really not quite sure how they’re there, similar to how I have no idea how Cronulla are in fifth spot, the Bunnies have arguably the toughest draw of any side in the run to the finals.
They could find themselves out of contention completely, or near the top two, depending on how they perform.
In my view it all depends on Greg Inglis. If he can make himself into the force he was at the end of last year, they’ll go close to making it two in a row.
The scary bit, really, is that I don’t think they will. Running into the Broncos, Roosters, Cowboys and Bulldogs could see them drop four straight on the way to the playoffs.
Something tells me they’re cooked. But saying that is scary.
Everyone’s scared of the Roosters. They’re a side that’s threatened greatness all year, but have dropped crucial games when it really mattered.
The course of two sides’ fortunes this year, in my view, hinged on a critical game early in the season between the Broncos and the Roosters.
It was Round 6, and the Broncos were starting to look in ominous form while the Roosters were clearly teetering.
Win, and you could see them going on a roll. Lose, and they put themselves back in the pack.
Many of you would know that that game went to golden point, and Ben Hunt strolled through the Roosters defence after faking an attempt at field goal.
That victory made the Broncos believe in 2015. They still lead the competition now, even though they’ve lost their last two matches.
The Cowboys’ first victory of the season, after losing four straight, was similarly inspiring.
But have the Queensland teams lost their spark, and peaked too early?
And did the Warriors give the dangerous Roosters their inspiration in Round 14? They’ve won eight straight since that point, and games against South Sydney and Manly, as well as their chance for redemption against the Broncos, will determine their premiership credentials this year.
My sense is they’ll win two of those games, and falter against Manly.
I think one of these NSW clubs is primed to take the trophy this year for the simple reason they’re scarier than all the other sides at the moment.
And that’s not even mentioning Cronulla or the Bulldogs. Excuse me while I go quake in the corner.
pete bloor
Guest
Other thing is the cowboys and broncos have to win two away games back to back to win the final. Over the past 5 or so years home field has been worth 6 points versus an out of town team
pete bloor
Guest
I don't know if that mean's go all glass coated knuckles ala kickboxer or fall off the face of the planet for a decade to resurface with a bad 1980s pony tail?
pete bloor
Guest
I don't get the sky is falling the roosters let in 22 points versus the knights! St George let in 24 against the knights, the knights sit mid table for points scored with 60% of their games getting 22 or more and 50% of their games against the top 4 and top 8. The rooster defense still leads the competition by 44 points even after letting in the 6th most amount of points last weekend. If 22 versus the knights is the litmus test then it is between Souths, Storm and doggies, though they've all let in 22 or more against lower scoring teams so maybe no one can win the grand final this year?
The Barry
Roar Guru
Souths are giving very little indication that they're picking up towards semi-finals and look in real danger of missing the top 4. They need to improve markedly and quickly. The Roosters look unbeatable for 40-50 minutes per game and very ordinary for 20-30. They are leaking points whenever momentum is against them. You'd think they'll have it right by semi final time... Manly surging but still have a LOT of work to do. Cowboys were looking the team to beat prior to their loss to the Sharks but who knows what psychological semi-final scars they carry. Will past controversies toughen their resolve or see them finding excuses when calls inevitably go against them? Broncos were looking good. I read little into their losses - Bennett is a master at timing his teams runs. Counting against them is whether their forwards will match it with their opponents in the semi finals and a lack of big game experience (and success) among their 6, 7 and 9. Sharks are playing tough, semi final style footy every week. They've been doing it for the past two months. There's another month to go in the regular season and then a month of semis. That's a long time to be in the grind. Can they lift another gear for semis like the other teams will? Roosters, Souths and Manly have the advantage of having made regular, deep, semi final runs over the past four or so years so know what's required.
Midfielder
Guest
but in the grey of the morning my mind become confused between the dead and the sleeping and the road that I must choose.
Renegade
Roar Guru
Yep, very important game this Monday night - I think a top 4 spot is on the line in this match. No Fifita or Tagatese for the Sharks but Luke Lewis is back so I think the Sharks pack will still be too strong for the Storm.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Yep, that suits the Storm fine to be under the radar. They do have a couple of tough games coming up though against the Sharks, Cowboys and Broncs to finish and also play the Knights who are still a very good side on paper. To get into the top 4 they will need to win a majority of those games starting with the Sharks this weekend and hope the Cows beat the Rabbitohs. Also need Jordan Mclean back to have some big men on the bench. The loss of Nelson Asofa-Solomona this weekend is going to be telling against a good Sharks side.
peeeko
Roar Guru
im not writing them off but i dont think those 2 guys wont make much difference
sheek
Roar Guru
Hilarious - Kierkegaard morphs into Kardashian!
sheek
Roar Guru
Middy, Dr Livingstone I presume, stepping out of the jungle gloom, into the midday sun, what did you find there.....? Between the silence of the mountains & the crashing of the sea, there lies a land I once lived in, & she's waiting there for me.....
big J
Guest
Oh yeah I forgot that, good point, but seriously when are they going to win again? and the broncos have won six that is pretty impressive.
Bronco Juggernaut
Guest
Without Benji though?
midfielder
Guest
Your major should require you to listen to the Moodies...they had some great titles..
Rod
Guest
the Newcastle Knights have never lost a grand final they have played in either
Aaron Fraser
Guest
Two losses without Adam Blair shows just how valuable he is to this Broncos side. Wallace is playing well but needs some support from the bench players. Jo O and Dodds simply haven't been doing enough. I'm pretty confident about the Broncos winning this week against the Dragons. Next week's match against the Roosters will decide the minor premiership.
Con Scortis
Roar Guru
I didn't notice Patrick but if you start referring to Shark Park as the "Bermuda Triangle" I'll have no choice but to go all Jean Claude Van Damme on you.
big J
Guest
Ok Patrick, Broncos fans need to calm down, they do this every year, they lose five or six matches before the finals to get a easier run into the finals and end up about four or fifth on the ladder so that they can ease themselves into a GF day. But more often then not it will backfire. THis is all apart of Bennett once again being up to his old tricks and everybody in the NRL swallowing it and thinking there is a problem at the Broncos. There is no problem this is just the tactics (in my opinion gutless) that Bennett uses. Seriously when is the last time they won a minor premiership? answer 2000 when is the last time they won a premiership 2006, so I would not be worried just as yet. if they make it to GF they probably win remmbering they are the only team to have a 100 percent success rate on GF day. As for the others well glory glory to South Sydney it would be great if they could go back to back, Manly and Roosters who cares as long as neither are there on the day I'll be happy.
Kingcowboy
Guest
Hey Planko, I don't get the Sea Eagles lovefest that is going on at the moment. Simple fact is that they don't have the forwards to roll with the big dogs. Going to be either a cows v dogs/roosters GF. Broncos will be a massive show next year.
Patrick Effeney
Editor
Oh did I copy Gus? My bad...
PLANKO
Guest
Patrick and Gus please stop talking up the eagles....