Is Nathan Lyon destined to take 400 Test wickets?

By Glenn Mitchell / Expert

Following Shane Warne’s retirement at the end of the 2006-07 Ashes series, Australian cricket was desperate to find a regular spin bowler.

Replacing Warne was always going to be an impossible task as he was a once in a multi-generation player.

Warne’s contemporary Stuart MacGill, at 18 months younger, was seen as a short-term stop gap. As it turned MacGill managed just four more Tests before being forced into retirement by injury.

Still, there was a belief that at least an ongoing, viable option could be located from among Australia’s first-class ranks.

But from June 2008, spinners largely came and went as if a revolving door had been installed.

In the time since Warne hung up the boots the national selectors chose 14 spinners in less than eight years:

Matches Wickets Average
Stuart MacGill 4 10 65.1
Brad Hogg 3 8 60.1
Beau Casson 1 3 43
Cameron White 4 5 68.4
Jason Krejza 2 13 43.2
Nathan Hauritz 16 58 36.2
Bryce McGain 1 0 0
Steve Smith 5 3 73.3
Xavier Doherty 4 7 78.3
Michael Beer 2 3 59.3
Nathan Lyon 46 162 34.1
Glen Maxwell 3 7 38.7
Ashton Agar 2 2 124
Steve O’Keefe 1 4 54.7

Only Hauritz (16 Tests) and Lyon (46) managed to make more than five appearances – Smith has gone on to play 33 Tests but his return to the side in 2013 was as a batsman.

Lyon was the 11th chosen in the post-Warne era and, despite doubts expressed through the early part of his tenure, he has become a key element in Australia’s attack.

Since Warne left the scene, the 13 specialist spinners other than Lyon played a combined total of 48 Tests for 123 wickets at 49.6. Those aggregate figures paint Lyon’s 46-Test haul of 162 wickets at 34.1 in a very favourable light.

Outgoing skipper Michael Clarke was a strong ally and he possessed the intuitive sense to work with his off-spinner with respect to setting fields. Lyon hope Smith continues the trend.

History indicates that off-spin bowling in Australian conditions has never been easy – both Harbhajan Singh and Muttiah Muralitharan averaged over 70 runs per wicket on Australian pitches.

Down through the years it has been the leg-spinners who have made the most of Australian conditions.

Warne (708 wickets), Richie Benaud (248), Clarrie Grimmett (216) and MacGill (208) lead the way on the all-time wicket-taking list.

Lyon went past Hugh Trumble’s 111-year-old Australian finger-spinning record of 144 scalps in the Caribbean in June. And having been picked almost on spec in 2011 after having made just seven first-class appearances, he is in the best form of his career.

His 16 wickets at 28.2 in the Ashes series followed eight wickets at 19.2 in the two Tests against the West Indies.

His control and penetration has improved markedly in the past 12 months with his eight Tests this year resulting in 24 wickets at 25.2.

Testament to how far he has come was his dismissal of England captain Alastair Cook on Day 2 of the final Test at The Oval.

Ahead of the 2013 Ashes series Cricket Australia did all it could to fast-track the citizenship of Pakistan-born leggie Fawad Ahmed, however while he qualified to play in that series he did not make the cut.

Then on the back of an outstanding Sheffield Shield season Ahmed was selected for the current England tour, but his form in the county matches was far from impressive.

The selectors will continue to search for a leg-spinner, with youngsters James Muirhead, Cameron Boyce and Adam Zampa all in the frame for future selection.

At present Lyon is well entrenched in the side and it will take some significant improvement from others who covet the role to displace him.

Lyon is well on the way to forging an extremely significant Test career. The fact that he is currently not seen as a limited-overs bowler by the selectors will keep him fresh for the longer form of the game.

It is well worth remembering that Graeme Swann, who rose to great heights with England, did not debut at Test level until he was 29 years and eight months old. He went on to play 60 Tests, capturing 255 wickets at 30.0.

Lyon does not turn 28 until 20 November.

Should he continue at the current rate, he will likely have around 210 wickets at the same age that Swann was beginning his Test career.

There is every prospect that come the end of his career Lyon could have over 400 Test wickets, a performance that would place him among the best-performed bowlers in Australia’s storied cricket history.

Not bad for a bloke who was seemingly chosen to simply fill a gaping hole.

The Crowd Says:

2015-08-30T08:56:05+00:00

144

Roar Guru


Terrific feat if he does Not too many people have been able to get that far. Shane Warne Muttiah Muralitharan • Anil Kumble • Glenn McGrath • Courtney Walsh • Kapil Dev • Richard Hadlee • Africa Shaun Pollock • Wasim Akram • and Curtly Ambrose

2015-08-29T11:26:41+00:00

Ed Lamb

Guest


He'll only make 500 if the Aussie selectors hold their nerve when he inevitably has a couple of relatively poor series.

2015-08-29T08:04:07+00:00

ak

Roar Guru


I had said that Anderson was destined to reach 500 test wickets on this forum some years back. Everyone dismissed it as a joke. Now I say Lyon will reach 400. It will come true.

2015-08-27T23:04:39+00:00

Jameswm

Guest


Australia didn't take all 20 wickets in all 46 tests though. I realise you've sort of allowed for that, but you can't penalise Lyon (or any bowler) if rain meant an insipid draw.

2015-08-27T14:07:10+00:00

Camo McD

Roar Guru


Spot on Sean, I think Ponting should take some of the blame for that revolving door of spinners. My impression is he didn't back or rate any of them much and it showed in the way he used them on the field. Not everyone is as naturally confident as Warne, and he was never the man to coax the best out of these guys. Doubt Lyon would have prospered for any length of time under him either. Feel sad for Bryce McGain - finally got a chance after a couple of good shield seasons, bowled a couple of good overs first up, then was ignored for a session or two, was brought back on as a last resort against set batsmen, was smashed as SA got 650+ and never even got a second innings let alone another match.

2015-08-27T13:11:37+00:00

JimmyB

Guest


I'm sure Bayliss deserves some credit, but so does Farbrace and more pertinently Brendan McCullum whose approach to the game definitely rubbed off. But let's be frank here, there may be triggers to Cook's new approach but the person who deserves the real credit is Cook himself. He's the one actually making the decisions.

2015-08-27T09:44:57+00:00

Ronan O'Connell

Expert


A bit like how Cook suddenly went from years of being a poor on-field tactician to a pro-active captain with innovative approaches just after Bayliss took over. Coincidence?

2015-08-27T09:26:20+00:00

Matt Gates

Roar Pro


If he keeps bowling the way he does. He'll have 500

2015-08-27T08:04:07+00:00

Pope Paul VII

Guest


Thanks Nudge, that rings a bell

2015-08-27T08:00:42+00:00

Geoff Foley

Roar Rookie


From subsequent reports he actually ruled himself out of playing at the Oval, bottled it due to some blisters, couldn't work through any pain. He would have carved up and really set up his career, noting that Swann took 8 on a bunsen with Ponting having to rely on North for Ali-quality spin, and him taking 4 in the second dig. It's a shame as he appears to be a really nice guy, but he never was that confident in his abilities, and the blisters seemingly gave him a way out of being relied upon to win a game for Australia.

2015-08-27T07:15:21+00:00

Nudge

Guest


I'm actually not sure what test is was Pope, but I heard there was a test that he got really bad blisters and wasn't all that keen on pushing through

2015-08-27T07:09:48+00:00

Anthony Maguire

Guest


Lol. Lyon's not in the same class as Warner and Smith when it comes to fielding. Sure he's got safe hands, but I'd rather run between the wickets with him fielding than Warner or Smudge.

2015-08-27T06:39:20+00:00

Don Freo

Guest


I love the love for Lyon. We have so many good players in this country that could play well at any time, so, to secure a place, a player must be reliable. Nathan gives everything...especially to the role expected of him. That's why his place is so secure. Despite stats and comparisons, Lyon, above everything, is a cog in a successful machine. Without the role he plays, the others are put under too much stress.

2015-08-27T06:13:38+00:00

Ed Lamb

Guest


He should take 400 but the Aussie selectors don't have a good record here. One *bad* series and an Aussie spinner gets dropped it seems. When looking at Lyon's stats remember that he had to put up with Wade dropping catches and missing stumpings for a chunk of his earlier matches. He should be Australia's spinner for nearly all of the next decade unless a new world beater like Warne emerges (presumably what Mike Hussey was thinking when he passed on team song responsibilities).

2015-08-27T05:46:15+00:00

slane

Guest


I like it.

2015-08-27T05:30:31+00:00

jeznez

Roar Guru


Whoops, can see you have already said it. The English commentators/cameramen also panned to Warner all day as Rogers and Smith's scores climbed and climbed and kept repeating how silly he must feel having thrown his wicket away cheaply.

2015-08-27T05:26:57+00:00

jeznez

Roar Guru


When Warner got out relatively cheaply and Buck and Smith went on to get their double tonnes. Warner said he had been overly aggressive against Moeen in the series to that point. That he had been trying to hit him out of the attack but he had now realised having watched Rogers and Smith that if you played him patiently that he would give you looser balls to hit. So there was no need to hit him out of the attack. Not sure on the exact quote but it was words to that effect.

2015-08-27T05:19:20+00:00

Dexter The Hamster

Guest


Glenn, some nice points. I have really warmed to Lyon, and think he will be part of the side long term. I just don't want to acknowledge it, as it seems to give selectors a free pass in picking blokes after 7 FC games, something we probably shouldn't be doing.

2015-08-27T05:16:36+00:00

Dexter The Hamster

Guest


Rob, I guess he has the advantage of being second spinner in spin friendly conditions. Hasn't had to be the sole spinner bowling on unfriendly tracks, which hurts the average. I still think he has a future in the team though. As good as Moeen at least, and England have done ok with him.

2015-08-27T05:12:04+00:00

Dexter The Hamster

Guest


Better fielder than Smith??? Not sure I can agree with that.

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