The AFL’s 2015 home-and-away season is finished, the Brownlow votes have been locked away, and though no one has counted them up yet, the 2015 Brownlow Medal winner is decided. The big question, of course, is who will it be?
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Nat Fyfe
Betting Odds: $2
Fyfe has been the favourite to win the medal all year long, following a blistering start to the season that may well see him in the lead for the award right from the first round.
He is a good chance to poll votes in all of his first 10 matches, and could already have a winning lead built up before the count is halfway through.
In May, CrownBet paid out six figures worth of bets on Fyfe, with CEO Matt Tripp saying, “it seems a formality that we’d be paying out on him in September anyway, so punters might as well enjoy their cash now.”
Of course, not everything has gone to plan and Fyfe was nearly made ineligible for the award on a few occasions, flirting with suspension after some on-field reports.
All of them fell by the wayside, however, and unlike last year he is eligible heading into the 2015 count.
The bigger concern is his drop-off in the second half of the year. While he was still playing quality footy, it wasn’t the world-beating form he showed in the season’s first half, meaning may struggle to poll latter votes.
He missed four of the last six games of the year, playing only 18 in total, meaning he’ll have to gain votes at a prodigious rate to take the win.
But if anyone can win the Bronwlow off half a season, it’s Nat Fyfe.
Matt Priddis
Betting odds: $4.5
Matt Priddis’ victory in the 2014 Brownlow count came as a surprise, but it will be no surprise if the hardened ball-winner goes back-to-back after another quality season.
Always a favourite of the umpires, Priddis went into last year’s count as a dark horse and impressively managed to trump the pre-count favourites Gary Ablett Jr, Joel Selwood and Robbie Gray, finishing one vote ahead of an ineligible Fyfe.
Can he pull it off again? While many will point out that Priddis has had a better season in 2015 than he did in 2014, last year he was aided by the fact that his teammates struggled to have a regular impact, allowing him to be the standout player in most Eagles matches.
However in 2015 the likes of Andrew Gaff, Josh J Kennedy and Nic Naitanui have all had magnificent seasons and will steal a few votes away from Priddis.
His consistent form may still get him across the line – he has again played all 22 games – but back-to-back might be just beyond his reach.
Patrick Dangerfield
Betting Odds: $7
Dangerfield has looked like the kind of player who could win a Brownlow ever since his breakout 2012 season, but his 2013 and 2014 form fluctuated a bit, and despite polling well in both seasons, he was short of the win each time.
2015, however, could be his year, as he’s recorded career-high averages for disposals and tackles while still averaging a goal a game.
He’s had some huge performances along the way where you would be more than comfortable locking in the three votes for him ahead of time, and while his teammates have been good enough to see the Crows into finals, none of them will be stealing votes from him too regularly.
His Round 9 battle with Nat Fyfe – which saw Dangerfield collect 38 disposals and kick a goal, while Fyfe had 40 disposals and a goal – could well be a tie-breaker for the win.
There’s not too many knocks on him. He has polled 66 votes in the last three years and this is primed to be his best one yet.
Dan Hannebery
Betting Odds: $9
I’m surprised that more people aren’t talking up Hannebery’s Brownlow chances, as he may well be the pick of the bunch.
In 2013 he was one of the best performers, picking up 21 votes across as many games and winning All-Australian selection. Injuries cruelled his 2014 but he still managed to find 11 votes.
2015 has been the best year of his career. He’s averaged over 30 disposals a game – five more than in any other year – as well as putting up career-best tackle numbers and continuing to contribute to the scoreboard.
On top of that, he’s clearly been Sydney’s best player. Teammate Josh P Kennedy might steal a few votes, but Hannebery has definitely been the Swans’ most eye-catching player.
He pipped Nat Fyfe to win the AFL coaches’ most valuable player award in the final round of the year, don’t be surprised if the Brownlow Medal count has a similar ending.
Sam Mitchell
Betting Odds: $9
A perennial runner-up, not many players in the AFL are more deserving of a Brownlow than Sam Mitchell.
With a total of 178 career Brownlow votes, Mitchell has the ninth most in VFL/AFL history, and is behind only Brent Harvey (183) and Leigh Matthews (202) as the player with the most votes not to have actually won the medal.
Mitchell has enjoyed another strong season and should be in contention for the award yet again.
That said, he’s fallen just shy of winning the whole thing on so many occasions, and there’s not really a point of difference this time around to suggest that won’t happen again.
Todd Goldstein
Betting Odds: $12
The Brownlow is often criticised for being a midfielder’s medal as it’s been some time since it was won by a player anywhere else on the ground – even though there have been some particularly deserving individuals over the last few years.
However if anyone stands a chance of breaking that run of midfield winners, it’s Todd Goldstein, who has had one of the most impressive seasons by a ruckman in history.
Goldstein has recorded career-high averages in both hitouts and disposals, while also maintaining strong tackling numbers and occasionally hitting up the scoreboard.
He would be a deserving winner, but he might be hit by what I’ll call ‘the Robbie Gray curse’ – when a player comes from relative obscurity to superstardom so quickly it often takes the umpires a while to catch up.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Goldstein poll a relatively low number of votes this year – as Gray did in 2014 – only to get significantly more reward next time around.
The smokies
I’m pretty confident saying one (or more) of the above six players will be the 2015 Brownlow Medal winner, but the count doesn’t always go as expected. If someone’s going to come from lower down the order to claim the win, these players are most likely.
Scott Pendlebury – $41
He’s quietly had a very good year and while you wouldn’t say he’s been the best player of 2015, the proven vote-gettter is in with a chance.
Robbie Gray – $51
Has he been the best player of 2015? No, but he was probably the best player of 2014 and as I said above didn’t really get his due in that count. The umpires have a habit of over-correcting and that could work in Gray’s favour.
Dane Swan – $81
Much like his teammate Pendles, Swan probably hasn’t had the best season of any player this year, but he’s been excellent and the umpires love to give him votes. Wouldn’t be a massive shock.
jax
Guest
The players just named Priddis as the 4th best player to match his 4th placing from the coaches.
Josh
Expert
He's a great player, he certainly has deficiencies in his game but so does every great player. What separates them from the pack is that they play to their strengths, and don't let their weaknesses be a liability... there's a number of things Priddis can do well and he bases his game around them. It's the smart way to play.
Josh
Expert
I reckon Robbie Gray or Buddy Franklin should've won it last year, but I don't think Priddis was undeserving. After all, it isn't about awarding it to the best player in the competition, it's about awarding it to the player who had the best season, and while there's a lot of 'better' players than Priddis most of them had troubles with form, injury, etc etc. It doesn't always need to be won by a superstar IMO... sometimes it's right for the average work-a-day guy who puts in maximum effort every week and provides reliability and durability to be recognised for his efforts. That's the story of Priddis. Good on him I say.
Josh
Expert
He'd be very deserving.
Josh
Expert
Strictly speaking, the AFLCA MVP rarely if ever lines up with the Brownlow... I probably rate it more as an accurate representation of the best player of the year, but the Brownlow has a lot more prestige attached.
Josh
Expert
Mitchell does have a habit of his knee being in an (in)convenient place, that's for sure. I have a feeling Fyfe is primed for a monster finals series but that won't affect his Brownlow chances of course.
9 Monkeys
Roar Rookie
Priddis is a very good player and was a deserving winner of last year's Brownlow. Best player in the competition? Probably not. But you know what, that's often the case with Charlie (Carey, Matthews, Ablett Snr.,Barassi, and Cable never won it). For what it's worth I'd love to see Fyfe win it but I imagine Dangerfield or Priddis will overtake him somewhere after R21. And if that's the case they will both be deserviving winners in my eyes. Super players both.
13th Man
Guest
haha Bring back State of Origin!
Nev
Guest
Those who knock Priddis for winning 2014 Brownlow obviously didnt watch many of his games, if you see the work that guy does you wouldnt be critical and this year he has gone up another level, his disposal under the pressure he gets is very good he shows a lot more poise with delivery these days . We never heard of people bagging Libratore or Williams when they won their Brownlows
jax
Guest
That's a great trio. Throw in Sandi and Nic and lets play for the state that your club is based in. That's a pretty awesome engine room. Throw in Kennedy, Pav, Lecca, Darling, Sonny, Ballas, Cripps, Ezy, LMac, Ibbo, Johno, Gov, Hurn, Spurr, Shepp, Yeo, Gaff, Hill, Shuey and I reckon WA would smash everyone if we played the game today. Good on ya mate and all the best for the finals.
jax
Guest
"He does not take the game by the scruff of the neck and drag his team with him. He doesn’t turn a game with moments of sheer brilliance." Earlier I said that I agreed with most things but I overlooked the one above. He takes the game by the scruff of the neck nearly every week and the gap between Pridda and WC's next best poller last year kinda proves that. Sure he's not the flashy player like some of the other guys but he doesn't need to be. He's buried under the packs dishing out to Gaff or Shuey and you've seen what they've done this year I hope? A tackle may be a moment of sheer brilliance just like a smother. His vision and hands are arguably the second best after Mitchell. Pridda has guys hanging all over him when he's disposing of the ball and he's got a great disposal efficiency. I've seen many moments of sheer brilliance from him. These days I hear how important contested possessions, pressure acts like tackles, disposal efficiency, goal assists and clearances are - well they don't come much better than Pridda when it comes to consistently delivering on these metrics year after year. He's incredibly underrated in some quarters. If there was an award for getting the very best out of yourself Pridda would have to be right up there. He wasn't born with the genetics of an Ablett, Pendles, Fyfe etc and that's not his fault. He accepted the cards that he was dealt and through sheer determination he worked his way on to an AFL list as a 21yo after being overlooked in two or three drafts, then he won a Sandover Medal followed by a Brownlow and soon he'll have an AA and if WC make it to a GF before he retires he's got a pretty good chance of adding a Norm Smith and Premiership Medallion to the trophy cabinet. That's the kind of resume that 99% of football players would die for. To think that the short, slow, stubby surfer dude with curly blonde hair that was overllooked in multiple drafts may end his career with a record like would be an outstanding achievement. It's time people cut him some slack and acknowledge the things he does really well rather then spending time critiquing him for things he is not genetically pre-disposed to do.
13th Man
Guest
I must say I was critical of Priddis winning the Brownlow last year but to be honest he sort of flew under tha radar a bit of some of the big names. I thought him a good workmanlike midfielder but not elite a bit like Michael Barlow. I have to say I was pretty wrong. This year with increased interest and coverage i have noticed he has been brilliant and is one of the games elite players. I understand why Anonymous thinks he wasn't the best player last year, i didn't either but have reconsidered. I just think those in the east haven't caught on yet but I reckon WA now has the top 3 midfielders in the AFL with Fyfe, Priddis and Mundy.
jax
Guest
The coaches voted Priddis and the 7th best player in the comp last year and this year they said that he was the 4th best player. Not too shabby - unless you think that the coaches don't have a clue and then you'd have to argue that they got it wrong with Gray, Fyfe, Hanneberry and Goldstein. 4th best - what a jet.
jax
Guest
Priddis finished 7th in the coaches award in 2014 and 4th in 2015. So for two years running the coaches have voted him as one of the very best players in the league. That highlights not just his ability and how highly the coaches value him but also his constistency. You just said that you hold the coaches award in higher esteem - on that basis you should have Pridda as your 4th best player this year but your bias probably won't allow you to do acknowledge that. It seems that you're asking for the umpires to have the exact same opinion as you and the coaches. Maybe the umpires should consult with you all before casting their votes. You are watching on TV, the coaches from the box and the umpires are up close and personal. Of course the votes aren't always going to be the same. I suppose your next argument will be that the coaches made a mistake with Priddis - for 2 years running no less.
Anonymous
Roar Pro
Forget this fairest nonsense for a moment, as what is deemed ‘fair’ in today’s game is farcical and a separate issue all together (and no, its not where my disconnect is coming from). Do you honestly believe Priddis was the best player in the competition last year? If you genuinely think so, than great. But if like me, you know he wasn’t, you will understand where my opinion is derived from. I want to see the best players awarded with the individual accolades they deserve. Hence the reason I stated I will stick with the AFL Coaches and AFLPA awards as they deliver this. The problem I have with the Brownlow, as stated in my original post, is if you stand out in an average team (like Priddis last year) you have a greater chance of winning the award over a BETTER player in a better team (like Robbie Gray, Nat Fyfe etc. the list goes on and on).
AJ
Guest
"To be awarded to a standout player in an average side and not the best player in the competition loses all credibility and is simply an embarrassment." Firstly the award goes to the FAIREST and BEST not just one or the other. Stats wise he matched up just as well as Fyfe last year so your argument he couldn't be considered the best players is laughable at best. On top of that Fyfe got himself rubbed out, Just because he may have been subjectively the best player over the year does not exclude the fairest portion of the award. Your comment also acknowledges that Priddis is a standout player. how can he then be slammed as being unworthy to win the award or denigrating it in someway? You ask if i am being serious and i am. You were the one that brought up the fact that he was part of an average team (that i wont deny you end up on the ladder where you deserve) if you didn't mean for that to be part of your argument as to why he didn't deserve it or why the award somehow means less then you shouldn't have mentioned it.
jax
Guest
Ablett of course. I should have qualified my comment by saying the back half of 2014 and most of 2015.
XI
Roar Guru
Nick Nolte? I didn't know he played.
johno
Guest
Who would that be? Please don't say NN
jax
Guest
"I said the award should always go to the BEST player." Take it up with the AFL Commission then as they will need to change the voting criteria if they are to ever meet your expectations. The award goes to the Fairest and Best player - maybe this is where the disconnect is stemming from? Priddis is one of the fairest players going around and he is tough as nails around the contests. I don't think anyone can argue with that can they? Last year not many votes were taken off of him and that helped him get over the line, no doubt about it. Pridda also had massive tackle, contested possession and disposal counts just like he does every year. The Brownlow is the umpires award and they award it to the Fairest and Best player and I can't see how anyone could argue that Pridda isn't one of the Fairest and Best players in the game.