Two teams are gone and two more will be eliminated from the 2015 AFL finals by the time the final siren blows on Saturday. It’s semi-finals time, and our panel of experts are back once again to share their tips and predictions for the weekend’s action.
MORE AFL FINALS:
>> WHO WILL WIN THE SEMI FINALS?
>> HAWKS V CROWS PREVIEW & PREDICTION
>> SWANS V NORTH PREVIEW & PREDICTION
>> FINALS FORECAST: HAWKS V CROWS
>> THE X-FACTOR FINALS PLAYERS
>> AN ALL WA GRAND FINAL?
>> HOW TO WATCH THE SEMI-FINALS
This weekend brings two huge elimination finals to the MCG on Friday night and ANZ Stadium on Saturday.
Both of last year’s grand finalists will be looking to keep their 2015 premiership tilt alive when they host the sides that finished the season in 7th and 8th, who are both fresh off confidence boosting wins.
Will the Hawks bounce back from their stumble last week against the Eagles and keep the three-peat alive? Or will the Crows snag their second preliminary final berth in four years?
Can the undermanned Swans put in another gallant effort? Or will the Kangaroos make up for the beating they took in last year’s finals at the hand of Sydney?
As always, if you fancy yourself a handy tipper, submit your tips in the form below and help The Crowd out-tip the experts.
Cam Rose
Hawthorn, North Melbourne
Hawthorn vs Adelaide: The Crows have averaged 117 points per game over the last six weeks, winning five games in exhilarating style. Their prime movers are all on fire, complemented by a forward line that has clicked dangerously into gear and can be nigh on unstoppable.
Their backline is still suspect though, if the opposition can get the ball in often enough. The Hawks look to be faltering, and have lost the air of invincibility they had two months ago, but are still the team to beat. I can’t believe they’ll play as poorly again as they did last week, as error-riddled and fumbly as I can recall from them. Champion teams bounce back. Hawthorn by 19 points.
Sydney vs North: The Swans were fierce of intensity against the Dockers, but inaccurate in front of goal and continue to lose players at a rate of knots. Unless they get some personnel back this week, it could well be that a tipping point has been reach. As a Richmond man, I am unable to say nice things about North right now, and I just broke my keyboard typing out their name. I’ll be barracking against them with a single-minded fury on Saturday night, but it may not be enough. North by 11 points.
Sean Lee
Adelaide, North Melbourne
Adelaide to defeat Hawthorn by 5 points: The Crows are on a roll and the Hawks are starting to stutter. Hawthorn have been the heaviest scoring team in the competition but Adelaide’s fire power measures up pretty well. Betts, Walker, Jenkins, Lynch and Cameron find the big sticks as regularly as any other group of forwards in the league.
Unfortunately the Hawks have lost their leading goal kicker in Gunston. Roughie and Breust should be able to cover his loss, especially if Rioli and Puopolo chip in with a cameo goal here and there, but one wonders if the Hawk machine is as well oiled as it has been in the past?
North Melbourne to defeat Sydney by 15 points: While Jack may be back for Sydney, their gutsy performance against Freo last week will have taken its toll on some battle weary legs. Losing Reid doesn’t help, especially with Buddy unable to take his place in the line up, and you’d have to wonder about the true state of Jack’s fitness. The Kangaroos have most of their top liners available and are full of running and confidence after downing the Tigers. Their second prelim final in two years beckons.
Ryan Buckland
Adelaide, North Melbourne
The second week of the 2014 finals series threw up something of an unusual set of results. Both top four participants (Fremantle and Geelong) were knocked off by their less-ladder-worthy opponents (Port Adelaide and North Melbourne, respectively), which was the first time that had happened since the current finals system was introduced. In fact, an elimination final survivor hadn’t won a semi final since 2007 before last year’s double dose.
But if you believe the commentary from this week, including from noted Crows man Ryman White, the double up is in prospect this season too.
Let’s pump the breaks a little. Yes, Adelaide are going really well, and just won what might be the best final in terms of its flair and excitement since, well, a very long time. And yes, Sydney are missing a host of their best attacking players. It couldn’t happen again though could it? I mean, you don’t become a 16-win team by being bad at football.
But you know what? Change is afoot. I’m backing the Crows to eek their way over the line in a very, very high scoring contest on Friday night, by six points again; and North Melbourne to beat the Swans by 18 points on Saturday. Why? You’ll have to wait until Friday and Saturday, for my full forecasts, for more.
| Finals – Week 2 | Cam | Ryan | Sean | The Crowd |
| HAW v ADL | HAW | ADL | ADL | HAW |
| SYD v NM | NM | NM | NM | NM |
| LAST ROUND | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| OVERALL | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Bonus: This week, Microsoft have kindly allowed us to present their detailed prediction engine – Bing Predicts – to Roarers. They’ve given Bing Predicts the job of predicting the AFL Finals results. Bing Predicts takes a statistical analysis of games, with a history of correct tips around the Cricket World Cup and recent tennis tournaments.
Last week, Bing Predicts managed to hit 3/4 correct, including West Coast with a confidence of 76%, based on results The Roar has seen.
This week, Bing Predicts is strong on both favourites – even if the experts aren’t!
HAW vs ADEL
Round 25, September 18HAW wins: 88.5% chance
SYD vs NMFC
Round 25, September 19SYD wins: 81.5% chance
We’ll track how Bing Predicts goes throughout the AFL Finals.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Reckon I did alright Edgar...
Ryan Buckland
Expert
I'm very uneasy with anyone calling anyone an expert in anything, ever. But I'll take it, for sure. Beats being an amateur Stew.
Stewart
Guest
So you agree with someone calling you an expert or did you write the headline yourself?
Stewart
Guest
No.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Zing! Feel free to make an application for 2016, Stewart.
Edgar Slosh
Roar Guru
Adelaide by 26 points, sorry Cam but you must have issues and North by 11 points
Edgar Slosh
Roar Guru
Are you blind?
Stewart
Guest
Read the article, but couldn't find any expert tips. Was the headline on the right article?
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Cheer up Andy the lads are going all the way.
andrew
Guest
as a north supporter i think we will lose this week. but, gee i hope the hawks lose. i will then have a 24 hr period in melbourne where i can legitimately claim 'north are the only victorian side left in it'. for all the bagging north have copped from the victorian press all season and the love given to the tigers, dogs and the generous leeway to hawthorn's shaky form, and even the drooling over the 'collingwood youngsters'.......it would be a tad ironic if north are the last to get eliminated from vic.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
North will climb all over Sydney.
kick to kick
Guest
Adelaide will give it a red hot go and the Hawks look more vulnerable than in the past two seasons, but I wouldn't read too much into those scorelines . Every game since the 2012 preliminary final at the MCG has been in Adelaide and the Hawks have still won each of them. Going back more than three years doesn't seem especially useful but the last time the Crows prevailed over the hawks at the MCG was 2009. The home advantage is a big weighting in finals.
kick to kick
Guest
Brave pundits. You will get very good betting returns on both teams travelling interstate winning on the weekend. Both home teams are comfortable favorites with the bookies who tend to be unsentimental in assessing odds. It has never happened - that is two interstate travelling teams winning in week two semi-finals. Last year two top four teams went out in straight sets - that was remarkable and unusual, but one of the games was an all Victorian affair. And yes in many years both games have featured interstate travelers with both usually losing. Yet every year commentators talk up the prospects of teams in the lower half of the ladder knocking off the double chance losers from week one. That's because the teams from the bottom half of the ladder have looked good in winning the week before and the higher ranked teams have looked fallible in losing. But its a seeded competition and the seedings mean something. Lets look at what happened in week one. 1st beat fourth and 2nd beat third. Its true that 7th and 8th won through in minor upsets. But they were very close games and its a big step up taking on higher ranked teams away. Hawks and Swans may not win but they have to be the clear favorites as the professional odds makers have them.
Anonymous
Roar Pro
I think most people would be surprised if the Hawks and Roos got up 100 points.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
You'll see a bit more of my view on this tomorrow, but I'll leave you with a teaser now: Adelaide have played Hawthorn better, and closer, than any other team in the league in their past five games (if you exclude Hawthorn's most recent losses to Richmond, West Coast and Port Adelaide), even though they've not managed to get over the line. Their last five margins are 53, 2, 11, 12 and 29 (and that 29 point result was all in the last quarter).
Rodger King
Guest
I'm thinking that these 2 games will be a lot closer than most 'experts' (& I'm not one of them) predict, less than a goal in it. I don't follow the Victorian line that Hawthorne are the champion team from the past 4 or 5 years so they will win, automatically. I believe they are past their zenith point and are starting a downward spiral and this Friday will just be another step on that natural pathway. All good things come to an end. Sydney in Sydney will prove too much of a hurdle for the Roos. Yes the Swans are depleted and hurt but are ready to put an end to the Victorian dream of at least one team in the preliminary finals in Perth. But then again finals are strange beasts and if the Hawks and Roos get up by 100 points who would be really surprised?
TomC
Roar Guru
I'd be backing Sydney. They played well against the Dockers and were just wasteful in front of goal. Their form hasn't been brilliant, but the Roos are flattered slightly by playing most of their games toward the end of the season against weaker teams, with the notable exception of Freo at Docklands. Winning finals interstate is very hard, and it's particularly hard for Victorian teams who aren't quite as used to travelling. It's been seven years since a Victorian team won any kind of final on the road, and against that record I'd want to see a really strong case for the Roos. And I think it's hard to make that case for them off their mediocre 2015 form. I'd also back the Hawks, although maybe not with quite as much conviction. I'm beginning to think that this team has simply been passed by others. Nevertheless, they should be good enough to beat an Adelaide team travelling to Victoria for the third straight week.
Rich_daddy
Roar Guru
Gee not much love for the Swans and Hawks, which is a very big call. Hawks have one sub-standard match and everyone (bar Cam) is writing them off. Adelaide are playing well, but they won't be given the free reign they did last week. Even if Gunston doesn't play, I expect they will have too much class for the Crows. As for the Swans v Kangas match I am surprised no one has gone for Sydney. They have won 9 out of their past 10 against the Roos, have lost only one final at ANZ stadium (though I still despise the venue) and the Roos have never won there. Also, in spite of last year's games, previous semi-final matches overwhelmingly point to the home sides winning. Yes the Swans have injuries but their line up this week will only be minus Sam Reid and they may regain Kieran Jack and they showed last week they can me competitive against the top side. The Kangas also very patchy in finals matches which leaves them vulnerable to getting blown away in a 10-15 minute period. While it wouldn't surprise me if the Kangas (and I will play the injury card if they do), I am keeping the faith with the Swans (for at least another week).