The Caulfield Cup is one of the great Australian races, not just due to its historical significance as one of our four majors, but also because it is usually just a fantastic race in the purest sense.
A hot start can be expected as they thunder down the home straight after the gates open, jostling for position before the first turn that arrives quicker than most are prepared for. Later on, we’ll see them fanning wide around the home turn, each jockey trying to give their horse clean air and an unencumbered run to the post.
Are we going to see a Might and Power bolting away from the front in the straight, or perhaps a Dunaden circling the field from the tail? Is there a Shane Dye among the jockeys, ready to write himself into Caulfield Cup lore? Who will be the hero? Is there going to be a villain?
Mongolian Khan, winner of both the New Zealand and ATC Derbies earlier this year, has always been in the market for this race, but took over as outstanding warm favourite after his blazing Cup trial in the Caulfield Stakes last week.
Peaking now fourth up, each run of his this campaign, all of them at Group 1 weight-for-age level, has been better than the last. He’s drawn to perfection, and has a sense of timing about him that’s hard to deny. If he doesn’t win, he’s going to go awfully close.
A word of caution to favourite punters though – it’s been 10 years since a horse jumping at single figure odds won the Caulfield Cup.
With Mongolian Khan the only horse backing up from the Caulfield Stakes last week, the key Melbourne lead-up is the Turnbull Stakes, which was the last start for eight of the 18 runners in the Cup.
Of those, Protectionist isn’t going well enough, and is the worst off at the weights, Magicool simply isn’t in the same league as these, and Who Shot Thebarman, while tracking nicely for the Melbourne Cup, is very much a big track horse that won’t have the acceleration to win from near last, although he should run well.
Royal Descent ran second in the Turnbull, the latest in a long line of Group 1 placings for her, to accompany her lone Group 1 win, in the ATC Oaks two-and-a-half years ago.
She ran fifth in the 2013 Caulfield Cup as four-year-old, is a better horse now, and carries less weight than she did then. She’s in the race, but can she run a really strong 2400 metres at this level? She also meets key rivals from the Turnbull significantly worse at the weights for beating them not far.
One of those rivals is Set Square, who meets Royal Descent 3.5 kilograms better for less than a length defeat in that race. Set Square is a genuine stayer, and a talented mare that, similar to Mongolian Khan, appears to be peaking perfectly for this assignment. She deserves her place high up in the betting.
Volkstok’n’barrell has been a touch underwhelming this campaign, after big things were expected of him. He hasn’t run poorly at any stage, but nor has he threatened the placegetters in any meaningful way in his four runs. Still, suspicions lingers that he can make his presence felt with the right run.
Rising Romance was runner-up in the Caulfield Cup last year, so is obviously good enough to figure again carrying the same weight, but she does have a knack for finishing second instead of first these days.
Her second in the Makybe Diva Stakes said she was right on track, but she raced a bit flat for mine in the Turnbull. Some have labelled the run a forgive after she was pushed wide, but she did have cover for a lot of the way, and gave up the ghost a little early in the straight for my liking.
Gust of Wind is the remaining horse from the Turnbull, and the biggest hard luck story from the race.
She never had a change to generate any real momentum in the straight, trapped in the ruck of horses, and only seeing daylight a couple of times. To only finish two-and-a-half lengths from the winner Preferment was meritorious indeed.
In fact, her Turnbull run was extremely similar to Happy Trails, who we saw come out of that and just get nailed in the Caulfield Stakes. If her fitness is up after she wasn’t taxed, she’s the clear improver and value bet. She’s also the most lightly raced horse in the field, and arguably the most untapped.
Our Ivanhowe also ran at Flemington on Turnbull Stakes day, but in the Bart Cummings over 2520m. It was a very solid staying performance given he was only second up and carrying the weighty impost of 60kgs. He’s one that could sneak under a few guards, but appeals as more of a trifecta or first four hope than a genuine winning one.
Hauraki and Grand Marshall have been doing their work in Sydney, and come into this off Craven Plate runs.
Hauraki is the pick of the two, and a legitimate winning chance plummeting in weight off his WFA form. His ATC Derby second, splitting Mongolian Khan and Volkstok’n’barrell, tells us he’s right in this now that he appears to have found his best form on dry ground and stepping up in distance.
Grand Marshall won’t trouble enough of these to finish in the top half dozen, but he won’t be the worst horse in it either.
Lucia Valentina also comes straight into the race off Sydney form, and must be respected after running third in this last year. Her best performances in the 12 months since have been her first-up runs, and I’m not convinced she’s a genuine mile and a half horse. It’s a no for me, but I can understand those who have her as a yes.
Magnapal is in the field as the ballot-free Naturalism Stakes winner, but is up against it. He couldn’t win a benchmark 96 at Sandown carrying 52 kilograms the last time he saw 2400 metres, so it’s hard to make a case that he’s going to break his distance duck (record of 4:0-1-0) in a Caulfield Cup.
There are four international runners, two from England and two from Japan. Overseas horses have taken out three of the last seven Caulfield Cups, and handling big weights in doing it hasn’t been a problem.
I’ll give a brief summary here, but I strongly urge you to read the thoughts on these visitors from our man Brisburgh Phil, which he shared with us on Wednesday.
Snow Sky is the equal top weight, and has the class, stamina and turn of foot to win the race. Jockey Damien Oliver will have him right on the speed, if not leading, from an inside gate, and he’ll take some catching at the end of 2400 metres. This is the race he’s been set for, and he’s been well backed this week.
Fame Game is arguably a better Japanese horse than Admire Rakti was before he came over, and carries less weight than that horse did winning last year. The whisper is that the Melbourne Cup and 3200m is his true goal, but you’d be reluctant to write him off, and he could easily power off with the race.
Hokko Brave finds it hard to get past Fame Game when they meet, doesn’t win out of turn, and has a wide barrier to contend with. He’s obviously an inferior horse to his fellow Japanese, but that still might mean he’s better than anything we’ve got here. A winning chance, but most will have others ahead of him.
Trip to Paris is the outsider of the internationals, largely due to the fact that he’s been running over much longer distances than the 2400 metres of the Caulfield Cup, and his last win was over 4000 metres earlier this year.
Aussies are generally quick to write off the supposed dour English stayer under those circumstances, figuring they won’t have the turn of foot to win here, but are we really going to second guess travelling specialist Ed Dunlop, the trainer of Red Cadeaux?
There doesn’t appear to be a lot of natural speed in the race, so it’s going to be an intriguing tactical affair. There’s been a lot of even racing in Melbourne features this season, with not a lot of ground covering a dozen or more runners home.
We may get more of the same in this.
Selections
1. Mongolian Khan
2. Snow Sky
3. Gust of Wind
4. Set Square
Cudoit
Guest
Does anyone need to ask why bookies are rich ? Wrong every race Caulfield, bar a flukey Cup fav saluting and Sacred Eye, which could have just as easily gone pear shaped, only other winner given up on because too short ( Flamberge ) and mind you that cat only just scrambled home in a field of scrubbers. Good Grief !
Bondy
Guest
Nothing with the winner or place getters has anything to do with Australia or Australians we can train sprinters if you call it that though really nobody else throughout the racing world cares about horses that run 1200 mtrs . .
Haradasun
Guest
Go The Khan!! I think he is very deserving of favouritism. He is out to his best distance, he is set for this and not the melb cup, he has WFA form around criterion who was running against the best WFA horses in the world. Drops back to hcp drawn beautifully he is a bulldog and a fighter. I am all in!! any the nymph in the last. She is a massive get on! Agree with you on that one Andrew!
Razzar
Guest
Gauging how the track plays today by watching closely if runners-on have an edge or front-runners are favoured. So it's good to hold fire, and just watch closely how the first 3 or 4 races pan out. It sometimes can be the difference between winning or losing on the day. It also heightens betting confidence as you enter the serious end of the punting day. Best of Punting Lukk ! Punters !
Bondy
Guest
$ 13 the field for mine , both the O'Shea horses should run well Magic Hurricane and Complacent they have very solid form lines around Preferment, with no weight on their backs they should go awfully close.. The CCup & Mlb Cup's are bet down races for smart punters but fantastic races for bookmakers in the modern era .. Good luck on the punt lads ...
Rossco
Guest
To Andrew above - Cracking Effort!! Cheers
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
Excellent preview Cam and thanks for the rap. I'm just hoping MK giving 4kg away to the 2 four year old mares is going to be too much for him.
Scuba
Guest
Cam, there's plenty of whispers that if there is one other scratching, Godolphin will hook Hauraki to get Complacent into the field.
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Great overview Cam and well done in the comments Roarers. Too right it's a deep Caulfield Cup, feels very close to a Melbourne Cup for the relative unknowns and chances across the board.
towards 21
Roar Rookie
Nfi, this year favourite is way too short. Just because of speed mapping going to back set square at the light weight.
Franky
Guest
Good talk about Who Shot and Grand Marshall being set for Melbourne Cup. Funny that Who Shot is 13/1 for Melb and Grand Marshall is 50s maybe for a nose win in the Sydney Cup. You know both of those get the 3200 obviously, surely the futures bet is to have something on Grand Marshall in case it runs a slashing race and starts the Melbourne Cup at 15/1
no one in particular
Roar Guru
Turnover from the Asian market
razzar
Guest
Channel 7 want a run in to its news' service. But Caufield the Carnival has been trashed by 10 races last sat, & a very ordinary meeting Wednesday. Looks a very tough Cup. But r6 saddlers lake after an unluky run, can bounce back. Good lukk punters
kv joef
Roar Guru
Maybe, but ... my suggestion is that Snow Sky pinched the Hardwicke. He has met Postponed 3 times and been well beaten twice. He has 0.5L victory over Brown Panther receiving 2.5kg. Brown Panther (55kg MCup 2013) didn't do much behind Fiorente but ran well all the same but not with 58kg.. Snow Sky's best at G1 level was a 3L defeat by Kingston Hill in the Voltiguer. His other 2 starts at G1 resulted in 5L defeats in the HK Vase and King George VII. he is weighted to his v.best where others might have an advantage here and there. Sir Michael Stoute is one of the worlds best so doubt he is here for a holiday but will have to run his best ever race..
Aransan
Guest
Joef, I think there would be a number of examples of good horses winning top races in slow times over the years. Perhaps it just means they can get a good position in a race and sprint better when it matters.
kv joef
Roar Guru
Great overview Cam, not sold on Snow Sky ... getting lot of hype rather than analysis. EG The winning time for the Hardwicke on a good track was slower than the winning time of the King George on a soft track where Snow Sky was belted ... go figure. Great comment about Our Ivanhowe. He has form around some of the best of last year including a defeat of Sea The Moon at G1 level, in fact he has won two good G1 races. Sea The Moon finished last year (2014) rated 125 ... point below Treve and a point above Wise Dan, California Chrome and Game on Dude. Our Ivanhowe finished the year (2014) on the same mark (120) as Protectionist, Free Eagle, Kingston Hill and Gold Ship. Seems to be well placed :) . Awful luck with the barrier. anyway, he will be better suited at Flemington as FBI horses always improve from the CaulC to the MCup tregardless of their CC finish. he will be one of the first i'll be tracking in the review.. Still can't believe Complacent, Magic Hurricane are sitting in the reserves ... only in Australia!!!
Jason Cave
Guest
Could someone please explain to me why the Caulfield Cup is run at 5:40pm tomorrow? What would happen if we get a multi-protest prior to the Cup (ie 6th against 5th, 4th, 3rd, 2nd and 1st, major interference in the last 200m), which causes the Cup to be put back to hear the protests, watch plenty of replays, then work out the new placings and penalties? -- Comment from The Roar's iPhone app.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Yeah, I'd agree with that.
andrew
Guest
CAUL 3 – kuro looks a strong bet at around $4.50. no luck behind chataqua first up, probably should have run 2nd or 3rd, then worked hard on the speed last time with big weight beating off the other on-pacers only to be swamped last 50m by the swoopers in fast overall time. Has form intwined with ball of muscle from last prep when gave it 0.5kgs and got beat 0.4length, gets a 3kgs weight swing from that meeting. find the 3yo’s hard to come at under this weight scale, several 3yo’s have run in this race over the years and failed to win, 3yo much better suited at WFA than in a hcp in the spring (even so you think got beat in a hcp as a 3yo in spring). Lumosty is talented but will have to come from last, capable of doing it, but its not like kuro/ball of muscle will just ‘stop’ over 1000m with race fitness on firm ground, she will need to be blinding to beat them. The ADL visitors are atleast 20pts out in the ratings and cant win. Kuro and ball of muscle look the 2, possible quinella bet too. Kuro gets the weight swing and is much better odds. Don’t mind him from the wider draw as the speed will be strong and the field will break up, he can sit 2nd or 4th, and hopefully nail ball of muscle the last 50m. 4 – ambience stands out and considerably so. From saddlecloth 6 down they are all either maidens, coming off maiden wins, or yet to be placed outside maiden grade. Accepting 3yo’s can spike quickly, esp as distances rise, you still have to gravitate to top of weights. Honesta has been up a long, long time and keeps running well, but 7th run for the prep and now into its 3rd state, has to be some question mark, also slight reservation over 2000m with her too, but class alone takes her fair way. But ambience has had the perfect building prep, and seems ready to hit a new peak. In fact, she probably doesn’t need to take this out, just a repeat of the last run will suffice, where she was really strong late beating a handy male, now back to a weaker fillies race. A clear top pick and deserved fave and weight of money makes me think she will stay short, especially when a few people start mentioning on TV/Radio that she is a half to Pierro. 5 – fontien ruby won this race last year as a filly taking on the males coming of a narrow win in the ed manifold. Sacred eye carries a similar profile. But, I think she is more suited to the 2000m that fontein ruby was, in that she is more a natural stayer. Well held view by many the melb 3yo males are pretty average bunch, and badawiya ran well in thous guineas last week giving credence to sacred eyes formline. also a good sign that hayes comes to this race me thinks. Could have easily gone to race 4, but they are chase the extra prizemoney and group status here. Its also around this race where by the 3yo division split from the precious types (ie, fastnet, redoutes) into your more dour/staying types too, and reservations on how some of these other 3yo males will go up to the 2000m and also if they are mentally ready. I have no doubts on sacred eye who is oaks targeted all spring and running super well each time. 6 – fenway is the best of the day. Ok first up, but leapfrogged massively 2nd up, and reasonable to think the upwards curve will continue and 2nd up was not her peak run. She ran smashing time last start, well ahead of what the cleaner has managed in his last 2 dato wins, and just 0.2 outside the 1600m MV track record. Put another way, she won a G2 last time, is a G1 winner at 2000m, and this a G3 and she is 2kg over limit weight. 3rd up last prep, she won at G1 level over this same trip. Shame she got injured for the AJC Oaks, ran well behind delicacy in SA oaks, when coming off 6 week break after that. I find her overall form impossible to knock. Stable rightly aimed for cox plate, shame she didn’t get in. but it shows they must have ready to peak fitness now if that was the target race. At $750k, this is most expensive horse the hopes would have had, and they are doing everything right with her. The power she showed last time in the final 200m, surging to (and through) the line (and mays dream is no mug) indicates just how she will keep building and building and absorb and pressure from the 600m and power away. when a horse you follow and like comes up against two others you follow and like and tip a bit, it can be a hard call as I certainly have tipped and won on stratum star and sadlers lake several time. But it can also mean you know the limitations or levels of those horses rather well too, and for me, fenway has a bit on them class wise, esp at 2000m. you can back her each way at the $5 on offer, but why stake 50% on the investment in running a place when she will win. 7 – Under the Louvre will be all the rage and rightly so, the weight scale is irresistible and his form clearly the strongest and franked in Toorak. If he drew a middle gate, I would say take $2 and load up. but, from gate 12, he will have to go back to last, no one is going to just him ‘slot in’. it will rightly be competitive riding, and the tight turn from the 1400m bend gives him little choice. So, can he round them up from last and win. In short – yes. But, you need a strong tempo and bit of luck. So, I supposed $2.70 is about the right price. But I reckon the bookies will risk him a bit on the day, north of $3, and im prepared to play, but I couldn’t declare him a good thing, like I suspect many will be doing. I do think he will get a decent tempo as worthy cause does like to run along, but this race has plenty of backmarkers and Sentinums best runs have been from back in the field too. a lot of horses who map for the perfect trail in 3rd to 6th spot from good draws are all the ones who cant win and will simply cause traffic for under the louvre to get around. 8 – Complex race as not sure what to do with Catkins, cant come at her from awful run last time, in a race where the form subsequent has been poor, but she maps for perfect run here, and crucially draws one inside Sabatini, with the likely leader drawn just inside her (noting several form inner draws are going to get back, or atleast gregers will take a sit). So, if tycoon tara leads and catkins sits 2nd, where does that leave Sabatini. I fear she could well get posted 3 wide if they push forward. If they go back, she will need to be damn good, esp if catkins has a good day and tempo is not strong (a real chance). Harazrd is probably the one who maps for the best run and she burnt it hard last time from wide draw and only got caught late, she does have a win over catkins to her credit (2kg swing catkins way) and is $14. Appreciate this isn’t much help. I will probably back Sabatini the win and hazard each way. 9 – caul cup a top race for 4yo’s, esp 4yo who have derby/oaks form as a 3yo and then come back and show they can compete at WFA (think mummify, ethereal, sky heights, paris lane, descarado, southern speed, railings, ditatribe, artic scent, might and power (agree he didn’t run in a derby), mannerism). And even if you ack it hasn’t been the case last few years, several of the placegetters though have still fitted this bill (lucia valentina, rising romance, dear demi). Of course, the horse who fits that profile this year is mongonian khan. His run last week was quite simply senstational, held up when the swoopers came behind fawkner, pornichet, had to ease, lose momentum and then charged to the line late, getting damn close to the best WFA horses in the land. He actually probably should have just about won with a better run. I cant recall a better caul cup trial in a long time. Im prepared to stick with history and patterns as a guide to the future and think he is clearly the pick of the locals. As for 55kgs, well, he has won a NZ and AJC derby, both times he was challenged and in for a fight at the 300m, both times his stamina saw him drawing clear the last 100m. love this attribute, esp for a race like caul cup where pressure comes on from 800m. sky heights carried 56kgs as a 4yo coming off VRC derby placing and AJC derby win (weights were raised 2kgs that year), if he loses, I don’t think the 55kgs will be the excuse. I will backing him solid, but on an ew basis, as the you just don’t know with the overseas raiders (and whilst the Japanese are being talked down this year, im not going to fall that trick, their record is superb) and in a big field he will be playing around $2.40 a place. Maybe something like $50w/$100 place for me. 10 – last year I got a big too vocal kicking home the messina nymph in the same race (she was one out at $6 in my quad). Much tougher edition of the race this year and 2kgs more. But, she is going better. Given I back her just about every start, its simply pointless trying to be objective about things here and that’s where my money will be going. But concede it wont be a cakewalk. Barrier draws don’t matter with her as she flies the gates anyway, but I don’t like her crowded and suspect they will ride her like last time sitting outside the lead (vezalay or maybe let sweet Emily cross) and then moving 3 or 4 wide around the turn and kicking from there. She has a super turn of foot, but it’s a short sharp sprint and its just a matter of how long she sits on the bridle for in the run, the longer the better. The good speed should help this occur. What I don’t want is sweet Emily parked outside her at her girth annoying her. Don’t think I will take her one out this year in the quad. But I will take her as the only on pacer and take a few swoopers such as brook rd, sultry feeling, Pittsburgh flyer, as if she gets done, I reckon it will be from something from back in the field. Best: Fenway Next: Ambience, Sacred Eye, Mongolian Khan, Kuro Suggested multi: Fenway to win, Ambience to win, Mongolian Khan to place = around $28/1 ADL: 2 – lots of intertwined trial form from 5 8 and 14. Make it tough to split them. 3 – pending outcome in race 2. Form for either 3 or 5 could be enhance and a fluid approach required here 5 – countess marinov comes over for price with handy 2kg for mick dee and is racing well in stronger form races and step to 1600m seems ideal 6 – flamberge obviously, but too short to bother coming off good WFA runs and returning to where he on goodwood under this weight scale. 7 - ready to fight another one for price/dee, no hope last time on rails bias track from wide draw, good run first up behind handy horse, and form last prep was all good. she would be my best of the day in ADL. 8 – betting against gloyland at odds on for sure. Tipped perpetual bliss last sat and she ran well in a stronger race for mine with the stokes horse too strong for her last bit and ew again she will do me.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
Deepest Caulfield Cup in years, I reckon. Heaps of live chances.