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The Caulfield Cup is one of the great Australian races, not just due to its historical significance as one of our four majors, but also because it is usually just a fantastic race in the purest sense.
A hot start can be expected as they thunder down the home straight after the gates open, jostling for position before the first turn that arrives quicker than most are prepared for. Later on, we’ll see them fanning wide around the home turn, each jockey trying to give their horse clean air and an unencumbered run to the post.
Are we going to see a Might and Power bolting away from the front in the straight, or perhaps a Dunaden circling the field from the tail? Is there a Shane Dye among the jockeys, ready to write himself into Caulfield Cup lore? Who will be the hero? Is there going to be a villain?
Mongolian Khan, winner of both the New Zealand and ATC Derbies earlier this year, has always been in the market for this race, but took over as outstanding warm favourite after his blazing Cup trial in the Caulfield Stakes last week.
Peaking now fourth up, each run of his this campaign, all of them at Group 1 weight-for-age level, has been better than the last. He’s drawn to perfection, and has a sense of timing about him that’s hard to deny. If he doesn’t win, he’s going to go awfully close.
A word of caution to favourite punters though – it’s been 10 years since a horse jumping at single figure odds won the Caulfield Cup.
With Mongolian Khan the only horse backing up from the Caulfield Stakes last week, the key Melbourne lead-up is the Turnbull Stakes, which was the last start for eight of the 18 runners in the Cup.
Of those, Protectionist isn’t going well enough, and is the worst off at the weights, Magicool simply isn’t in the same league as these, and Who Shot Thebarman, while tracking nicely for the Melbourne Cup, is very much a big track horse that won’t have the acceleration to win from near last, although he should run well.
Royal Descent ran second in the Turnbull, the latest in a long line of Group 1 placings for her, to accompany her lone Group 1 win, in the ATC Oaks two-and-a-half years ago.
She ran fifth in the 2013 Caulfield Cup as four-year-old, is a better horse now, and carries less weight than she did then. She’s in the race, but can she run a really strong 2400 metres at this level? She also meets key rivals from the Turnbull significantly worse at the weights for beating them not far.
One of those rivals is Set Square, who meets Royal Descent 3.5 kilograms better for less than a length defeat in that race. Set Square is a genuine stayer, and a talented mare that, similar to Mongolian Khan, appears to be peaking perfectly for this assignment. She deserves her place high up in the betting.
Volkstok’n’barrell has been a touch underwhelming this campaign, after big things were expected of him. He hasn’t run poorly at any stage, but nor has he threatened the placegetters in any meaningful way in his four runs. Still, suspicions lingers that he can make his presence felt with the right run.
Rising Romance was runner-up in the Caulfield Cup last year, so is obviously good enough to figure again carrying the same weight, but she does have a knack for finishing second instead of first these days.
Her second in the Makybe Diva Stakes said she was right on track, but she raced a bit flat for mine in the Turnbull. Some have labelled the run a forgive after she was pushed wide, but she did have cover for a lot of the way, and gave up the ghost a little early in the straight for my liking.
Gust of Wind is the remaining horse from the Turnbull, and the biggest hard luck story from the race.
She never had a change to generate any real momentum in the straight, trapped in the ruck of horses, and only seeing daylight a couple of times. To only finish two-and-a-half lengths from the winner Preferment was meritorious indeed.
In fact, her Turnbull run was extremely similar to Happy Trails, who we saw come out of that and just get nailed in the Caulfield Stakes. If her fitness is up after she wasn’t taxed, she’s the clear improver and value bet. She’s also the most lightly raced horse in the field, and arguably the most untapped.
Our Ivanhowe also ran at Flemington on Turnbull Stakes day, but in the Bart Cummings over 2520m. It was a very solid staying performance given he was only second up and carrying the weighty impost of 60kgs. He’s one that could sneak under a few guards, but appeals as more of a trifecta or first four hope than a genuine winning one.
Hauraki and Grand Marshall have been doing their work in Sydney, and come into this off Craven Plate runs.
Hauraki is the pick of the two, and a legitimate winning chance plummeting in weight off his WFA form. His ATC Derby second, splitting Mongolian Khan and Volkstok’n’barrell, tells us he’s right in this now that he appears to have found his best form on dry ground and stepping up in distance.
Grand Marshall won’t trouble enough of these to finish in the top half dozen, but he won’t be the worst horse in it either.
Lucia Valentina also comes straight into the race off Sydney form, and must be respected after running third in this last year. Her best performances in the 12 months since have been her first-up runs, and I’m not convinced she’s a genuine mile and a half horse. It’s a no for me, but I can understand those who have her as a yes.
Magnapal is in the field as the ballot-free Naturalism Stakes winner, but is up against it. He couldn’t win a benchmark 96 at Sandown carrying 52 kilograms the last time he saw 2400 metres, so it’s hard to make a case that he’s going to break his distance duck (record of 4:0-1-0) in a Caulfield Cup.
There are four international runners, two from England and two from Japan. Overseas horses have taken out three of the last seven Caulfield Cups, and handling big weights in doing it hasn’t been a problem.
I’ll give a brief summary here, but I strongly urge you to read the thoughts on these visitors from our man Brisburgh Phil, which he shared with us on Wednesday.
Snow Sky is the equal top weight, and has the class, stamina and turn of foot to win the race. Jockey Damien Oliver will have him right on the speed, if not leading, from an inside gate, and he’ll take some catching at the end of 2400 metres. This is the race he’s been set for, and he’s been well backed this week.
Fame Game is arguably a better Japanese horse than Admire Rakti was before he came over, and carries less weight than that horse did winning last year. The whisper is that the Melbourne Cup and 3200m is his true goal, but you’d be reluctant to write him off, and he could easily power off with the race.
Hokko Brave finds it hard to get past Fame Game when they meet, doesn’t win out of turn, and has a wide barrier to contend with. He’s obviously an inferior horse to his fellow Japanese, but that still might mean he’s better than anything we’ve got here. A winning chance, but most will have others ahead of him.
Trip to Paris is the outsider of the internationals, largely due to the fact that he’s been running over much longer distances than the 2400 metres of the Caulfield Cup, and his last win was over 4000 metres earlier this year.
Aussies are generally quick to write off the supposed dour English stayer under those circumstances, figuring they won’t have the turn of foot to win here, but are we really going to second guess travelling specialist Ed Dunlop, the trainer of Red Cadeaux?
There doesn’t appear to be a lot of natural speed in the race, so it’s going to be an intriguing tactical affair. There’s been a lot of even racing in Melbourne features this season, with not a lot of ground covering a dozen or more runners home.
We may get more of the same in this.
Selections
1. Mongolian Khan
2. Snow Sky
3. Gust of Wind
4. Set Square