Can anyone actually challenge the Broncos and Cowboys in 2016?

At the end of Round 10 of each season, I usually examine, through statistical prediction, which teams are most likely to win that year’s premiership.

As we know, every single NRL title dating back to 1998 has been won by a side that has finished the home and away season in the top four.

60 per cent of the time the Premier is already in the top four by the conclusion of Round 10 – the weekend before Origin 1.

This season I see no reason to wait. Barring major injuries, this seasons Premier will be either the Brisbane Broncos or the North Queensland Cowboys.

Not only are their statistics far superior to all of the other clubs, I can’t see enough potential in any of the chasing clubs to say that any of them could do any more than manage a lucky victory against either of the Queensland juggernauts.

To illustrate my point lets first look at the stats that show just how superb both sides are.

Both sides clearly have the best points differential of any side. The Cowboys score on average 15.5 points per game more than their opponents, while for the Broncos it is a massive 17.1. The next best are the Sharks and the Storm with 7.5 and 7.4 respectively.

The Cowboys are number one for tries scored, the Broncos are number two.

The Broncos are the best line breaking side, the Cowboys the third best.

The Cowboys and Broncos are the second and third best metre gaining sides.

They are the third (Broncos) and fourth (Cowboys) for average metres conceded a game.

So far this season the Cowboys are on average 182 metres a game better than their opponents. The Broncos are a massive 246 metres better off.

They are second best (Brisbane) and fourth best (Cowboys) for missed tackles.

They are equal second best for line breaks conceded.

They are the best (Broncos) and second best (Cowboys) for tries conceded.

Both sides have also had amazing stability in their squads. The Broncos have rotated just 20 players so far this season, the Cowboys just 19.

The Broncos have six regular players averaging 100 plus metres a game. The Cowboys have eight.

In the halves Ben Hunt and Anthony Milford have 11 line break assists and 14 try assists between them.

The Cowboys have 21 line break assists between Jonathan Thurston, Michael Morgan, Lachlan Coote and Jake Granville, as well as 25 try assists. No other playmaker combinations come close to those stats.

All those stats are fearsomely good. Assuming major disaster doesn’t befall either – or both – sides, are there any teams that can actually challenge them?

There is no way either the Knights or Wests Tigers can challenge the front runners. Both sides are currently in the grips of their own personal nightmares. While they both have some quality cattle, it is safe to say that their biggest attainable achievement this year would be to avoid the wooden spoon as both sides have often paper thin defence.

The Warriors started the season full of hope. Shaun Johnson back from injury would be joined by the prodigious talent of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck. The pack was stiffened by Isaac Luke and rising star Tuimoala Lolohea was about to hit top stride.

Fast forward to now. The pack continually gets rolled over, with Isaac Luke showing little of the form from his Rabbitohs days. Johnson has failed to set the world on fire and both Lolohea and Tuivasa-Sheck are on the long-term injury list. Coach Andrew McFadden’s job expectancy can now be measured in days. The idea of this mob beating either the Broncos or Cowboys is fanciful.

While the Rabbitohs error count is the lowest in the NRL, that’s where the good news ends. Their legendary defence of 2014 has all but evaporated. They concede the fourth most line breaks in the comp and the second most metres per match. They only make, on average, just a few more metres a match than the Knights and Wests Tigers. They pose no danger to the dominant Queenslanders.

The Titans have surprised many with the determined performances they’ve delivered so far this year. However, their only wins have come over the inconsistent Raiders and the cellar-dwelling Wests Tigers and Knights. Their line breaking ability is only enviable to the Dragons and the Knights. Their missed tackles are second only to Penrith. While the likes of Greg Bird, Ryan James, Ashley Taylor and David Shillington will win them some games, they won’t be able to stop the might of their fellow Queensland sides.

The Sea Eagles do have four wins but all but one has been against the struggling Roosters, Warriors and Knights. Their only good scalp was the Sharks in Round 3. Their tries scored, line breaks made and tackle breaks are all below the NRL average. The rest of their stats are a melange of mediocrity. If they do make the final eight they don’t have the ability to challenge the Cowboys or the Broncos.

The Dragons are caught in a recurring nightmare – they can’t score tries. The average tries scored per team this year is 27.6. The Dragons have scored just 12. They are unsurprisingly also the worst in the NRL for line breaks with just 16 from eight matches. They are also the third worst side in the NRL for metres gained and they concede the third most. That translates into the Dragons being nearly 130 metres to the bad of their opponents each game. These are not even vaguely the stats of a side that can challenge the favourites.

What about the Panthers? This season Penrith have lost five of their eight matches by a combined total of 19 points. Their worst loss was in Round 1 by just eight points to the Raiders. However, their three wins have been by one, two and four points respectively.

While they are the third best for metres gained in the NRL, the rest of their stats are average pretty much across the board. However, they are the worst side in the NRL for missed tackles, averaging a massive 38 a game. Now with James Segeyaro back from injury, along with Matt Moylan, we may start to see the Panthers’ A-game. But will it be good enough to beat the Queenslanders? (Remembering of course that the Broncos one loss came at the hands of the Panthers in Round 3).

This weekend the Roosters will finally have Mitchell Pearce, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Boyd Cordner back and you can expect a far better performance from last year’s minor Premiers. However, with a third of the season now gone they sit bottom of the ladder. Manly were in a similar funk in 2015 and won eight of their last twelve games (still missing the finals). So while the Roosters at full strength may actually have the talent to take on the Cowboys and the Broncos, it almost certainly won’t be in September.

The Raiders have promised so much but what they have delivered so far this year has been very similar to their efforts of 2015. While they can lay on a try, they concede almost as many. Their flogging of the hapless Wests Tigers has made their statistics look more respectable than they actually should. They are third best for tries scored so far, and second best for both line breaks and tackle breaks.

However, they are capable of the sort of insipid mediocrity that saw them blow a 14 point lead over the Titans with just 15 to go, get towelled up by 30 by the Eels and by 24 to the Sharks. While on their day they could challenge the top two, if they don’t find some consistency they’ll miss the finals for a fourth straight year and that will just be hypothetical.

The Storm are the first of the four sides that I actually think could challenge the Cowboys and the Broncos. Since Craig Bellamy has been at the helm of the Storm their trademark has been low error football and a hard working and brutal pack. They’ve still got that going on. They make the most metres of any side in the NRL and concede the fourth least.

They average an extra 182 metres a game over their opponents. They miss the least tackles of any side and concede bugger all line breaks. However, without Billy Slater and Will Chambers, their attacking options are limited. Their eight-try rout of the hapless Warriors took their try scoring from bottom three to average. Further, their wins have been against the Dragons, the Titans, the Wests Tigers, the Knights and twice against the Warriors. The two times they played top eight sides – the Bulldogs and the Sharks – they lost. Their sheer professionalism will probably see them into the eight, but they pose no real danger to last year’s grand finalists.

The Bulldogs have lots of grand final experience in their side – a key factor in winning titles. Further, they’ve got a killer pack and dangerous backline. They also make very few errors. However, what they do have is the ability to perform regular brain explosions that can cost them dearly. In specific, two of their team leaders in James Graham and Josh Reynolds can do really stupid things at crucial moments.

Once Brett Morris returns from injury the Dogs backline may regain the best of its bark and bite. Along with the undeniable skill of Moses Mbye, the Morris twins and Reynolds have the ability to really unsettle the Cowboys and the Broncos. If their Tolman and Graham led pack gets on top the backline could wreak havoc. However, it’s just as likely that someone will do something stupid at a key moment that throws the game.

Have the Sharks finally got it together? Their sixth place finish in 2015 may prove not to be a false dawn. Andrew Fifita and Paul Gallen are at the top of their line bending best and Ben Barba seems to have finally recaptured his form from 2012. And Michael Ennis… well he’s still Michael Ennis.

The Sharks’ defence is conceding the third least metres of any side and they average 80 more metres overall than their opponents this year. However, the only side of any note they’ve beaten this year was the Melbourne Storm in Round 4, and they went down to the Cowboys in Round 1.

So while they look a whole lot better than in previous seasons, do they actually have the all round game to serious challenge the Broncos and Cowboys? Possibly, but I think not.

The Eels acquisition of Kieran Foran, Michael Jennings, Michael Gordon and Beau Scott has drastically improved the side. This is particularly true of their defence. They’ve conceded just 107 points in eight games this season, equal with the Cowboys and only bettered by the Broncos.

However, while their defence is great their attack is below par. They’ve scored less tries than the NRL average and they are the fourth worst for line breaks. Add to that the salary cap scandal and the likely loss of competition points and the chances of the Eels putting up a genuine challenge to the Cowboys and Broncos fades somewhat.

The two sides that I think could lay a genuine challenge to the Queensland duopoly are the Eels and the Bulldogs – although a fit Chambers and Slater could bring the Storm right back into reckoning.

But, in reality, only injuries to Thurston or Milford can stop their respective sides march to a grand final rematch.