North Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs: Friday Night Forecast

Big four? Who are they? Two of the League’s most exciting teams do battle under the dome tonight, with North Melbourne’s unbeatean streak on the line.

Can the Dogs’ depleted half back line stand up to the forward-force of the ‘Roos?

This game is a fascinating match up on so many levels.

The Dogs have made Etihad Stadium their Torture Chamber in recent years, winning 13 of their past 14, the loss being against the close-winning Hawthorn in Round 3. Their defensive scheme suits the ground incredibly well, and they have turned a ground shared by five teams into a clear home ground advantage for themselves.

One of those shared tenants, though, is North Melbourne, who have a 9-5 record in their most recent 14 games – one of those losses against the Dogs in Round 22 last year. The ‘Roos have scored 100 points per game here, and conceded 89. By contrast, the Dogs have kicked an average score of 106, and allowed just 61.

North Melbourne’s 2016 game plan is to double down on their 2015 strengths in an effort to hide their weaknesses: slingshot play, a versatile tall forward line, and a dominant inside midfield group being their strengths, and a weak one-on-one defensive unit being their weakness.

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But there’s something more, or rather, someone more. Daniel Wells has offered the ‘Roos so much in their greatest area of weakness – perceived or real – outside polish and precision. The 31-year-old, who’d spent much of the past two seasons on the sidelines, has averaged close to 20 disposals since returning, and is moving the ball at an excellent 71 per cent clip (despite playing both inside and outside, and kicking far more than he’s handballing).

The flow on effect of Wells’ presence can’t be underestimated. It means Nick Dal Santo is able to run somewhat freer, Brent Harvey can run completely free (he’s averaging 0.4 clearances per game – by far the lowest of his career, and his clearance totals have never been particularly high), and Shaun Higgins can spend more time forward as a link man. He could be the biggest recruit of the year to date.

Now, the biggest knock on the ‘Roos is that they’re yet to ‘beat anyone’ – even super fan and Roar editor Josh Elliott lamented his team’s prospects on this week’s edition of The Roar AFL Podcast on this basis. Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne, Fremantle, and Gold Coast doesn’t scream tough, but it is far from the easiest slate of games a side has faced this season. And you can only beat who is put in front of you, a task which North Melbourne has achieved, with a percentage that puts them in the top six.

Even if you don’t think they’re the best team in the competition, they are pretty good at football this year. We knew this coming into the season, but many – including myself – got distracted by the shiny new toys lurking just outside of the eight. Their draw does tighten up towards the end of the year, but after tonight’s game they face the Murderer’s Row of St Kilda, Essendon and Carlton, before a trip north to face the Swans. Get over this evening’s hump, and there’s a not-insignificant chance that the ‘Roos will be either 10-1 or an unthinkable-until-now 11-0 at the half way point. From here, a third straight trip to the finals is almost a certainty.

That requires a victory against the Dogs, though, and the ‘Roos are in an excellent position to achieve that. Both midfields match up well, while the one-on-one issues that exist in North Melbourne’s defence will largely be offset by the “good” play of Footscray’s forward set. Jake Stringer could give them all sorts of troubles, but he seems to have caught a slight case of mean regression at the start of this season.

Where this game could be won and lost, though, is in North Melbourne’s forward half, where the all-conquering trio of Drew Petrie, Ben Brown and King Jarrad Waite will prove a difficult match up for the Western Bulldogs’ zoning defensive scheme.

Marcus Adams has been a revelation in 2016, after joining the Dogs as a mature age recruit through the national draft last year. Rumour has it the struggling Fremantle Dockers kicked the tyres, but decided against drafting him. He’d be handy right about now. Adams joins Easton Wood as the Dogs’ two genuine defenders, with the efficient team zoning system doing the rest.

That might be an issue against these three guys, should the ‘Roos get their fair share of the ball forward of centre. Between them, they have taken eight marks inside 50, kicked 7.4 goals on 10 scoring shots, and pumped the ball inside 50 an additional seven times per game. Their jumper numbers also add up to 100.

The question is therefore twofold: which midfield will win the day, and can the Western Bulldogs’ defensive scheme stand up to the pressure of a three-pronged tall forward set up?

On the midfield, it is really hard to split. Both sides rely on evenness as their strength, although the Dogs do have a handful of high possession winners. Both sides have strong inside groups, and equally damaging outside runners and distributors. It might be a genuine toss up through here, so needless to say both sides will be wanting to bring their best.

We’re left with the Dogs’ defence, which has been weakened by injury in recent weeks. Jason Johanissen, Bob Murphy and Matt Suckling are all important to what the Dogs want to do in different ways: Johanissen forces you to play an accountable forward, Murphy is the organiser, and Suckling is the damaging kicker. They all force you to make sacrifices, and without them, the Dogs are likely a weaker unit.

That tips the scales for me, and I’ll be backing North Melbourne’s attacking grunt and flare to kick enough of a score to keep the Dogs at bay. The Kangaroos will be the victor in this one – ugh I’m already regretting this – to the tune of four goals. One thing I am confident in projecting is that it’ll be a high scoring, wide open affair.

This brings me to my final point: thank you to the AFL for realising that they don’t need to schedule in a powerhouse Victorian club to make Friday night footy sing. Last year, Round 11 and Round 21 were the only weeks where one of Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon or Richmond weren’t scheduled to play.

This year, we’re Big Four free on ten Friday nights. While it’s hard to pick which teams are going to play well in October, giving the smaller clubs like North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs some extra airtime among themselves can only be a good thing for the game’s health.

As the League begins to turn its mind to the 2017 fixture, the first under a new broadcast agreement, let’s hope for some more bolshy scheduling – give the Giants and Suns some time in the spotlight, for example.

That’s my Friday night forecast, what’s yours?