The Hawthorn Hawks have done what no team in AFL history has: won three games decided by less than a goal in three consecutive weeks. Is it skill, luck, or some combination of both? And does it mean anything for their flag chances this season?

In case you haven’t watched much Australian rules football in the past few weeks, Hawthorn have dispensed with their three most recent opponents by a combined margin of nine points. That is skinny indeed – the average game margin this season has been a comparatively hefty 35 points.

But are these wins the result of skill? Or simply the mathematical machinations of chance? My cyborg brain says it is all chance: after all, Hawthorn lost four straight close games in their first eight last season. It has led to a crazy couple of figures: the Hawks sit at 4-1, with a percentage of just 105.5; last year they were 4-4 with a percentage of 145.6. Flip those and it starts to make more sense.

As we discussed earlier in the year, the best a team can hope to do in close games over a long period of time is win half of them. So when a side like Hawthorn, who lost a bunch of close games in a cluster last season goes on to win a bunch of close games in a cluster this season, boom, mean regression.

It is precisely what happened to Geelong circa 2014 and 2015. The Cats, in the dying days of their previous dynasty during the 2014 season, went a math-defying 6-0 in their close games as they made the top four. Their performance across the season pegged them as a team clinging to the bottom half of the eight, and with a bit of age-related decline baked into their 2015 season, so it proved.

So Hawthorn 2016. Case closed, right? Not so fast.

There’s been a bit of chatter this week that Hawthorn’s performances in close games this year are a manifestation of a great side – a team that ‘just knows how to win’ because of its body of experience and nous. This sets off my analytical bullshit detector: if they’re so good, why did they lose four straight last season?

The answer, either way, is not satisfying as it stands. So, let’s journey back to each of Hawthorn’s last three wins and pick the final moments apart. There is plenty wrong with this kind of analysis: it prioritises the last few minutes of a game, where any individual moment across the other 95 per cent of the match could have easily swung the game another direction, for example. However, if Hawthorn are the side that ‘just knows how to win’, there should be some evidence of this in the closing stages of close games.

For today, the ‘closing stages’ refers to the point in the game where there is five minutes left on the game clock.

Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn, Round 3 2016
Hawthorn came out of the final change trailing by 19 points, a deficit quickly made up with a burst of attacking play to start the quarter. They pinched the lead by nine points, a which the Dogs chased down in less than 30 seconds on the back of two blistering centre clearances. Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson threw Cyril Rioli into the return clearance once the Dogs had taken the lead, and in the various match ups that unfolded, Rioli ends up adjacent to Marcus Bontempelli.

Both sides would have thought they were a chance of getting forward, but it was Rioli who gathered the clearance, and with a solid assist from a Paul Puopolo deflection, he managed to get a shot off. It missed, setting up a frantic final three minutes.

The most obvious play in this game was Bob Murphy’s ACL injury. We don’t need to relive that here. There was, however, two very distinct chances for the Dogs to ice the game prior to Hawthorn’s James Sicily taking one of the least-watched uncontested marks and goals to win a game of all time.

The first was on a Dog forward thrust with around 2:30 left on the clock. James Frawley absolutely blows his defensive assignment on Toby McLean, allowing him to jump uncontested at the ball.

McLean drops the mark, but Mitch Wallis of the Dogs swoops in to clean up the crumbs. Wallis is able to squirt the ball on his non-preferred to a free Bontempelli, who sprays the resulting shot on goal. The ball goes high into the air, allowing Jake Stringer to have a contested run at it. He drops the mark. It was a comedy of errors, but one that started with the poor play of Frawley, who should have at the very worst neutralised that contest. Chalk that one up to luck.

A second piece of luck came on a play less than a minute later, after the Hawks managed to clear the ball out of the most threatening zone. On a boundary throw in, Caleb Daniel roves the pack in a manner we’re likely to see him do for the next 20 years, and pumps the ball high and long to the forward pocket. A pack forms, but there are three Hawks sucked into the play to one Dog, Luke Dahlhaus. In his haste, Dahlhaus slams the ball on his boot, ignoring the trio of unmarked teammates streaming to goal.

Now, he most certainly made the decision in haste because of the game situation. And it is worth noting that a few minutes before this, Dahlhaus kicked a goal in almost precisely the same circumstances. Still, the Dogs had the numbers, and they were wasted. Again, luck for Hawthorn.

The missed attempt by Dahlhaus results in a kick-in, which is where the final decisive attacking play of the game, the Sicily goal, comes to life. From then, the Hawks stack the half back line in a very smart way, and block the Dogs’ run out of the stoppages that eventuate on their forward fifty arc. The actual final play of the game sees James Sicily receive a free kick for a high tackle – does he drop his knees? You be the judge.

Anyway, chalk that win up to mostly luck – read, unfortunately bad play by a young team – and some common sense positioning once the lead was attained.

Hawthorn v St Kilda, Round 4 2016
The Hawks and Saints are all tied up after three in Round 4, and St Kilda have the early running to build an 11-point lead. Then, this happens.

A St Kilda kick in to the pocket is called “not 15, play on”, and the resulting kick back inboard, that results directly from the play on call, is also called “not 15, play on”. Shane Savage is tackled, the ball spills, and Jordan Lewis kicks an uncontested snap. The Hawks draw within three.

That is obviously outside of the five-minute warning period, but my point in raising it is a very similar thing perhaps should have been called, this time against Hawthorn, with three minutes left on the clock. Check where the man on the mark is standing, relative to where the St Kilda call takes place.

The Saints are set up in a similar way to Hawthorn on the previous kick in, and so it is reasonable to assume that there was a high chance of a turnover occurring if the ball was called “not 15, play on”. We’re talking hypotheticals here of course, but once again, chalk that up to a healthy dose of luck to the Hawks.

Unlike the Hawks-Dogs game, the final stages of Hawks-Saints were mostly a dour, scrappy affair. Once the Hawks gained the lead, and realising that the Saints were completely gassed, they simply stacked numbers around the ball and hoped for the best. That’s smart play, and earns them some skill credits to go along with the luck they’ve ridden thus far.

There was one piece of play that fell in their favour, though. Around the four minutes remaining mark, the Saints managed to break away from congestion and launch a high ball inside 50. A huge pack forms at the drop, and the Hawks have Man Bun Josh Bruce outnumbered three to one. No one sees Paddy McCartin coming at the back of the pack, though, and he takes a super impressive contested mark with a big leap and reach over the top.

(Just quietly, there’s also a very clear over-the-shoulder free kick to Josh Bruce lurking somewhere in there).

However, McCartin misses the shot, in what is the final scoring action of the game. Again, the Hawks were lucky, in that the Incredible Hulk didn’t make good on his excellent mark.

But the luck didn’t just run Hawthorn’s way. At the two-minute mark, once the Hawks had cleared the ball from the McCartin miss, there is a series of ball ups on the Hawthorn forward left wing. After one ball up, and some to-ing and fro-ing, Liam Shiels ends up with the ball, and Saint David Armitage ends up all over his back.

The ball is called dead, in what should have been a free kick to Shiels. There is little doubt that this would have ended the game there and then. Luck can run both ways.

Hawthorn v Adelaide, Round 5 2016
Finally, last Friday night’s game saw the Hawks trail the Crows by an even two goals, a lead that Adelaide managed to build to 15 as the five-minute warning hit. Undoubtedly, though, it was Hawthorn’s skill that got them over the line in this one.

The first piece of play is just beyond the five-minute mark, with Adelaide streaming down the field after a signature handball chain from defensive 50. The Hawks managed to squash it, with hard defensive running and smart positioning.

It forces a short kick, which is poorly executed, and a turnover. The ball ends up streaming back down to Hawthorn’s end by virtue of their great positioning defensively, and Paul Puopolo does the rest.

The next centre clearance results in a free kick to Jordan Lewis, who kicks long to the centre of the inside 50 arc for Hawthorn. Once again, by virtue of smart positioning and good play, the Hawks are able to manufacture a semi-contested shot on goal, this time to Cyril Rioli. Sure, the Crows could have marked Rioli closer, but this kind of situation is right in his wheelhouse – he was always going to score once the ball hit the deck.

Finally, at the next centre clearance, the Crows manage to get the ball and push it forward. After some scrappy play, and a couple of chances at goal to Adelaide, Hawthorn were able to work the ball to their right back flank. Adelaide, as is their style this season, set up to crush any hope of moving the ball directly forward. Seriously, look at this zone.

So what does the Hawk possessing the ball do? Switch the ball, in what looks too precise to be anything but a set play. Three uncontested marks later, and Jack Gunston has a shot at goal from the left hand corner of the Hawthorn forward 50 arc.

Gunston misses, but the resulting kick in from Adelaide ends up out of bounds. The Crows manage to clear the ball to their right defensive wing as it falls out of bounds. Hawthorn then set up with a ridiculously wide open stance – which the Crows, bizarrely, allow them to do – with about a minute left on the clock as the ball is tossed in.

After some back and forth, the ball looks set to spill out, before Rioli manages to keep it alive with a deft handball to Sam Mitchell, who executes a precise cross body kick with three Crows bearing down on him. Look at how much space he has.

That kick goes on to be marked by Puopolo, who kicks his third for the term, and that’s the game. That is until the Crows manage to shark what should have been a recalled bounce that Hawk Ben McEvoy spikes uncontested.

That ball is handled like a bar of soap in the Crow’s forward line, until the unlucky Isaac Smith ends up with it – and he stands there like a kid that has just had his head tapped in a game of duck-duck-goose but doesn’t want to get up and chase the goose around.

Should it have been holding the ball? Perhaps. But you’ve got to ride your luck while you can. Hawthorn haven’t recaptured their best form from the 2015 season in the year to date, but have done enough to get themselves into winning positions, and then held on with some combination of skill and luck. Last year, many thought that the top four was going to be a step too far after a 4-4 start, and look what happened.

This year, with luck favouring them early, the Hawks can bank the three close wins they’ve had despite their sluggish start. The rest of the league should fear a Hawthorn team primed for another top-four finish, once it gets its finely crafted footballing machine firing. If only we could all be so lucky.