I was wrong on two counts about North Melbourne. Firstly, I thought their recruitment of Jarrad Waite was pointless, and secondly I believed they could not win the flag this season.
Right now, Waite is arguably the most valuable player in the AFL. He has been imperious over the first six rounds. Not only has he been a dynamic presence inside 50m, hoarding goals, but he’s also been a terrific team player, bringing his teammates into play as well as applying heavy defensive pressure.
If he can produce this kind of commanding form in September the Roos are a major threat to Hawthorn’s drive for a four-peat. Yet when North announced late in 2014 that they had picked up then 31-year-old Waite as a free agent from Carlton, I scoffed.
My cynicism was two-fold – I didn’t think Waite would have any impact at North, and I figured his recruitment was another sign the Kangaroos were recruiting top-up players, wrongly believing they were a realistic chance of winning the flag in 2015.
Waite quickly proved me wrong, having a fine debut season for North, playing 23 games and slotting 42 goals, the most he had ever kicked in his 13 seasons in the AFL. The Roos made the finals and their mature-age recruit was influential in their elimination final and semi final wins, booting four and three goals respectively.
Waite was off the boil in the preliminary final against West Coast and North fell short of making their first grand final since 1999. On the strength of 2015 alone, his recruitment was an unqualified success. But as the 2016 season began, I still didn’t rate North as a genuine flag threat.
Hawthorn, West Coast, Fremantle and Sydney all were superior teams in my eyes. Even as the Roos began to string together wins to start this season I wasn’t convinced they could lift the Cup. I was among the doubters whom Josh Elliott referred to in his piece for The Roar on Saturday.
The last couple of weeks have changed my mind. Although the Roos are yet to have been tested by Hawthorn, West Coast or Sydney, the quality football they are playing can no longer be ignored. Nor can the fact that they look a very strong chance of being 9-0 in a few week’s time, with easy games coming up against St Kilda, Essendon and Carlton, before they tackle the Swans in Sydney in Round 10.
Should they go 9-0, from there it would be a relatively straightforward task to finish top four and earn the double chance. To snare a flag, teams need quality tall forwards. Amid the heightened intensity of finals football, these big men are invaluable.
The Roos are stacked in this regard. They have three tall threats up forward in Waite, fellow veteran Drew Petrie, and gifted youngster Ben Brown. At 194cm, 197cm and 199cm, respectively, they can stretch every defence in the land.
North are unusual in playing three forwards of this size. Most teams cannot afford to implement such a setup because of the lack of mobility it offers, and the danger of being exposed on the ground and on the rebound.
Waite’s pace and agility offer the Roos this luxury. He may have the frame of a key forward, together with the aerial prowess, yet he moves like a medium-sized footballer, even at 33 years old. Waite always has been a phenomenal athlete, possessed of vast footballing talent. Previously, though, he exhibited these gifts only in bursts.
His continual injuries did not help, but there also was a sense that Waite wasn’t committed to fully exploiting his ability while at the Blues. Finally, in his 14th AFL season, he has become the player many of us long thought he could be.
So far this season, no player in the competition has been more valuable than Waite. The stat that is getting the most attention is Waite’s goal tally which at 22 sets him in second place in the AFL. This prolific goalscoring has been built on his dominant marking – he is top five in the competition for contested marks and has taken the second most grabs inside 50m.
Yet Waite has offered the Kangaroos much more than just a rich avenue to goal – he has been the complete package.
This season, Waite has set up his teammates like few other players in the land. His haul off 11 goal assists is equal first in the AFL and, among the top 20 goalscorers in the league the next best is seven assists. He has been unselfish, showcased fine decision making, and been clinical in his ball use, with an elite disposal efficiency of 77 per cent.
What has been the biggest surprise has been Waite’s fanatical pressure on the opposition ball carrier. Of the leading 20 goalkickers in the AFL this season, only one player – Cyril Rioli – has laid more tackles than Waite. North coach Brad Scott recently told The Age that he was delighted by Waite’s defensive efforts.
“He’s getting some reward offensively at the moment for all his hard work but that’s not what his game build on, his game’s built on defensive pressure.
“You could make an argument there aren’t any better key forward pressure players than Waitey, and I wouldn’t think that would have been his legacy from early in his career so he’s done a terrific job to make that the cornerstone of his game. He tends to get involved in the game offensively when he’s doing that.”
Right now, Waite is an unstoppable force, and if he maintains that momentum he could just drag the Roos into the grand final.
Perry Bridge
Guest
I'd disagree - as a North fan - not many of the guys are playing out of their skin. There's actually a fair room for improvement. Certainly haven't played a 'complete' 4 qtrs yet. Prob the defensive effort v the Doggies on Friday was the best 4 qtr defensive effort but we wasted some easy chances to ice the game earlier and coughed up the ball a bit too easy at times (Dal Santo in particular). So far not one single North player has exceeded 30 disposals in a match. The performances have been pretty even. The top disposal winners across the 6 matches so far have been: Rnd 1 : Cunnington 27 Rnd 2 : Harvey 24 Rnd 3 : Harvey 22 Rnd 4 : Gibson/Ziebell/MacMillan 26 Rnd 5 : Dal Santo 28 Rnd 6 : Wells 27 Goal kicking wise certainly Waite is the stand out - he's been top goal kicker 4 times. Brown once and Harvey twice (Harvey and Waite tied in Rnd 1). However goal scoring across the board hasn't been an issue. Port Adelaide in 2014 didn't back up. North made prelim finals in 2014 and 2015 and are a team on a mission for 2016. And while premierships aren't won in April/May - they sure as heck can be missed entirely. North are far from peaking. Note that after the return of Brad Scott from his enforced lay off last season - where he tweaked the game plan and expectations (including of Boomer Harvey who got the green vest, and Thomas got dropped) - North then got their $h!t together and won 7 straight to secure a finals slot. That included a couple of 11 and 12 goal wins to drag the % back in the positive. Winning is a good 'habit' to develop. For North what was equally important was to work out their game style and that included working Waite and Higgins into the structures. North are pretty settled now - with even contributions and a tough fight for the 21st and 22nd spots in the squad. The bottom 6 each week is pretty solid. And there's about 6 guys fighting for those spots (Garner, Wood, Turner, Dumont, Black, Hansen, Daw along with mature 'rookies' ready to go in Nahas and Ray).
Perry Bridge
Guest
#PD - Don't forget that both sides were variously trying to get a +1 in their back line - and that the Doggies would try to get a 3rd man up against Brown and Petrie in marking contests and that's where North have struck it rich with Waite as the mobile 3rd tall (a roll that Aaron Black wasn't quite ready for 2 years ago). This is also a key to why Waite as the #1 target at Carlton was no where near as good (in general) - the North fwd line is functioning nicely at present. Ironically I thought Lindsay Thomas was below his game and would've loved to see Mason Wood out there at least instead of Kayne Turner.
Perry Bridge
Guest
A few years back North were pretty easy to open up defensively on the switch - gaping holes opened and teams could waltz straight through. The North defensive bubble has improved and was highlighted against the Doggies. And the high numbers for someone like Hunter (who didn't really hurt via his disposal) perhaps highlighted the loss of perhaps better kicking half backs who might break out of the bubble.
Nicole
Guest
"Crumble when it most matters in finals". Sure mate, that's why North have won four finals in the past two years...
Arky
Guest
Bulldogs didn't dominate midfield, they just have a gameplan that leads to them overpossessing the football. Hunter had 44 touches but his side kicked 6 goals, he had no goal assists, and he had only 1 tackle. That's not dominance. That's a team which was shuffling the ball around in the back half, racking up Supercoach points until they eventually either turned it over or just bombed it long and hoped. North played more directly, which led to more turnovers and less possession but also more goals.
Arky
Guest
They've won 4 finals in two years. Lost to a Sydney outfit which was simply better (and which had a powerful Buddy-led forward line against an undersize North backline wrecked by injuries). Lost to West Coast by 4 goals in Perth while being rogered by the umpires, after dominating the Coasters in the first quarter. But sure, they crumble in finals. You're just thinking about the massive losses in 2007 when North somehow snuck into the top 4 despite being not very good and got absolutely obliterated by Geelong and by Port. THAT team dropped its bundle and crumbled in finals, no doubt. That was also 9 years ago. And of course, the reason you're hung up on that North team is it still beat the Hawks in a semi-final. Congrats on your three premierships, enjoy the decline and fall now. Heck, I'm entirely expecting North to have a decline and fall from next year- just hoping to get ONE premiership to keep us warm during that...
Perry Bridge
Guest
Gecko - that you're going on about Caleb Daniel and Tory Dickson kinda shows the one sided nature of your observations. Sam Wright since the Elim final v Ess in 2014 has been an important player for North across half back. Garner was a fixture in the side from Rnd 15 on last year including the 3 finals matches (we won 2 remember - how many did the Doggies win last year again?? North actually have won 4 finals matches in the last 2 seasons -
Perry Bridge
Guest
re Waite - when it matters most - last years finals he kick 4 and 3 against Richmond and Swans, then, granted, only 2 behinds against the Eagles but 2 out of 3 finals getting the job done.
Stephen
Guest
If 2015 has "Zero Relevance" You would have to say that the years preceding that have zero relevance. It is also too early in the year (according to your previous remarks) to make a judgement. Therefore you have no right to be calling the Saints "no one", or a "Bottom Six team". Seems to me like you make broad statements, but none of those statements are applied to your own remarks.
I hate pies
Guest
You nailed it right there PD.
Samantha
Roar Rookie
St Kilda has been no one for years, still no one this year. Saints are a bottom 6 side.
InvisiblePJs
Roar Rookie
As a Carlton supporter, I'd agree with the Betts one; Jarrad is a different story, however. I am really glad for him, going as well as he is. But after 12 years of being continually frustrated by his injuries ruining seasons, or crazy brain snaps & getting himself suspended just when he was getting going, I'm sure him leaving didn't put utter devastation into the hearts of the Blues faithful (those of us who are still around that is!)
Bill
Guest
Keep enjoying that one premiership in 91 years.
Bill
Guest
Guru my ass.
Bill
Guest
I prefer Hawfs.
Xavier Smith
Roar Rookie
Agree premierships aren't won in May, so the jury is s still out on everyone, including North. Disagree Norh are playing out of their skin, I've felt they only just been getting by - plenty of room for improvement for when the big games come.
Pumping Dougie
Roar Guru
There doesn't seem to be many top key defenders around in the league these days. Hooker has already signed-on with Essendon. Maybe Hurley is worth pursuing. Rance would be handy! Or maybe there's another Marcus Adams floating around in the WAFL. But really, who apart from Rance would you want to divert heaps of salary cap to?
DingoGray
Roar Guru
You can only beat those who are in front of you. I think it's more the way North have been able to adjust their game to their opposition. While a couple of games have been shoots outs, they've also showed they've got the Defensive discipline to get the job done if the opposition can turn it into a slog. They've most certainly improved significantly and Jarrod Waite has found some serious consistency. I really didn't think that was possible.
Stephen
Guest
Yes, I agree. North would be better off to play average early and get done by teams they should beat. They should then make a late run like they did last 2years and just scrape in to the eight. They will then be told, " You can't win from outside the top 4". They should then beat an Interstate club hosting a home final against your predictions like they did with Sydney last year. BUT they may then fall short when having to play a second away final proves too much for them. Nah, maybe they are just best off winning as many games as they can and try to finish as high as they can to earn the double chance and possible week off in the finals
Gecko
Guest
And the Bulldogs need to recruit another tall defender (Hooker?) because that's their biggest weakness this year.