Adelaide vs Geelong: Friday night forecast

It’s slingshot versus smash-mouth football as two teams of contrasting style face off on a Friday night.

Both Adelaide and Geelong have premiership credentials to be tested this evening. Oh and did you know it’s the first time Patrick Dangerfield is playing his old side? Let’s do this.

There’s not a heap I have to say about the long game for these teams this week. We talked about Adelaide a few weeks ago, noting they are adjusting to life without their former star Patrick Dangerfield better than anyone predicted.

Earlier this week, we talked about Geelong, noting that they are adjusting to life with their new star Patrick Dangerfield better than most predicted. So rather than traipsing over that old ground, let’s get into the Xs and Os.

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Both teams have performed ahead of expectations this season, by virtue of playing to their strengths and going all-in on their own identities. What makes this game so fascinating is that they are potentially each other’s kryptonite.

The Cats want to play slow, and use their heft and size to bash and crash their way to territory and time in possession victories. The Crows want to play fast, and use their efficient and effective forward line to put up big scores.

Both teams have the potential to play at the alternative pace – the Cats with their outside runners and power out of stoppages can move the ball quickly, while the Crows have been one of the most efficient ball movement sides by virtue of their forward structure and foot skills. But by default, Adelaide want to play fast, and Geelong want to play slow.

These two are not completely mutually exclusive objectives, but they’re very close. Victory in this game will ultimately come down to who can force their style of play on their opponent for the longest.

Adelaide’s midfield group has been performing fine, led by the evergreen Scott Thompson – who might keep playing until he’s 40 at this rate – and transformed Rory Sloane. Last season the Crows were a team built on pressing and territory, and had a solid +4.8 inside 50 differential over the year to show for it. This season, that’s fallen to a -7.0.

The Cats, by contrast, have the second best differential (+15.7) in the League, which is an improvement on their 2015 form (-0.7). Much of that is driven by schedule strength, given the Cats won the inside 50 count by 34 against the Lions and 29 against the Suns – those sorts of differentials happen half a dozen times a year across the entire competition.

The midfield group is responsible for this though; able to push the ball forward from clearances and stoppages while stopping the opponent from doing the same with their bash-and-crash play.

It is reasonable to assume that the Cats will win the territory battle on this midfield match up alone, barring some crazy turnaround on early season form from both teams.

Adelaide have been winning games because of their forward line – plain and simple. The Crows lead the league on my Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) with a rating of +21.5. They’re doing that on efficiency alone. The Crows get the ball inside their attacking zone 51 times a game, which is below average, but kick a score just under 55 per cent of the time – a league high – and kick a goal on 59 per cent of those shots – third behind St Kilda and Melbourne.

Their strength is clear: multiple threatening options, many of whom are damaging both in the air and on the ground. Josh Jenkins is the only player that looks uncomfortable when the ball comes in low, but even then he’s had 30 scores on 19 inside 50s, a ratio which puts him in the middle of the pack on direct scoreboard impact per mark inside 50.

Last weekend, the Crows had just 37 inside 50 entries as the Western Bulldogs applied their medieval torture methods to crimp Adelaide’s ball movement. The Crows still kicked 108 points. That. Is. Insane.

Do Geelong have the defence to counter Adelaide’s threatening forward line? I don’t see it. Their defence has been effective thus far by virtue of the midfield’s territory wins – there are few entries, and those that do eventuate are not high quality, allowing the Cats’ veteran defenders time to set up effectively.

There’ll be too many threats for Geelong to stop them all. If the Crows are able to get to their 50 entries, I’d back them in to score 100 points with relative ease.

It might be a similar story down the other end of the ground, though. Geelong have recorded the League’s second best OER, with a rating of +20.1. It’s been a territory game for the Cats, although they’ve also scored quite heavily once they’re in the zone. Geelong’s forward set is leaving all in their wake, leading the league in marks inside 50 per game, with Tom Hawkins taking 27 on his own. It isn’t all about the tall guys though, with many of Geelong’s midfielders able to get free and find some space on counter attack or through repeat entries.

When the Cats lost to the Giants in Round 2, they took just 11 marks inside 50 – they have taken 19 per game across the rest of the competition. It looms as a critical performance indicator for both teams.

Adelaide’s defensive unit has performed well ahead of expectations, driven by the rise of guys like Kyle Hartigan, Kyle Cheney and Jake Lever, who compliment the lockdown stylings of Daniel Talia. He’ll most certainly go to Hawkins, in an effort to shift more of the scoring load to Shane Kersten, Daniel Menzel and Darcy Lang.

This is the first time the two sides will face off at the Adelaide Oval – Geelong have won two of their three games against Port Adelaide at the venue. The Crows put up triple digit scores for fun at home (eight of their last 14 games), and have kicked an average score of 108 points since the start of 2015.

It’s a really tough one to tip, and I’m backing the maths over gut feel in picking the Crows to win this by a couple of goals. Adelaide’s forward line will be too potent for Geelong to handle, while I’m still not sure Geelong’s style will stand up against teams that want to go fast.

Either way, its sure to be an excellent game, and one I think all fans are looking forward to.

Oh yes, and tonight we’ll witness Patrick Dangerfield, the Geelong midfielder formerly known as Adelaide midfielder Patrick Dangerfield, play his first game against his old club. He’s in good form, and will probably play well.

We got through the whole preview without mentioning that. Pat on the back to us.