Super Rugby tipping Round 13: When draws bite hard

But not in the ‘ooh, South African forearm, must taste’ sense, which poor old Jaguares and Argentinean international backrower Leonardo Senatore seems to be afflicted with.

No, I’m referring to the disappointing and completely unworthy draw that the Stormers managed to extract from their colon in the 80th minute against the Sunwolves in Singapore last weekend.

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When for the 79 minutes previous they’d been mailing in their performance, somehow the Stormers managed to find a semblance of cohesion and cross the stripe.

And of course they converted the try, to give them two of the most undeserving competition points I can ever recall. And it bit hard on my tipping sheet not because I’d tipped the Sunwolves – surprisingly, you’d be well entitled to say – but because like everyone else, I’d picked the Stormers, and the seven seconds (or however long it was) that it took them to score the try showed how easy this game should have been for them.

And then that bit me harder again, because a Stormers win would’ve given me a perfect round. I don’t need to point you all to my tipping this season as to why I didn’t take this realisation well.

So it would seem I’ve won the honour for Round 13 while Paddy brings us this week’s Big Super Rugby Question.

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Last Week: Brett seven, everyone else a measly six.

Brett McKay: OK, then. I did my tips on Tuesday, essentially. I could just put the feet up for the last five rounds. I surely can’t do any worse than I have been…

But I’ll elaborate a little. The easy and obvious ones first: Crusaders, Chiefs, Lions, Sharks. Easy.

I’d love to think the Sunwolves’ heartbreaking draw will be the start of a run, but their first major tour in Super Rugby – three weeks in Australia – will be tough. I can’t wait to see the Moondogs in the flesh in Canberra next week, but I think the Reds will be too good.

I gave the Blues the benefit of the doubt on Tuesday for the run home predictions, but when it came to actually tipping them to beat the Force, it’s not quite that simple. There are probably a dozen reasons why the Blues won’t beat the Force. But there are also a dozen reasons why the Force won’t win, either. So heads, Force, tails, Blues.

The coin came down tails.

And I’m picking the Bulls to beat the Stormers, which goes against my prediction for this match, and could have implications for the Africa 1 conference. And the reason is simple: I hold grudges when it comes to being burnt by tips. Strangely, I hold no grudges against the Sunwolves despite getting them wrong so much this year, but the Stormers’ lacklustre showing last weekend still stings. So no love for them.

Tips: Crusaders, Reds, Chiefs, Blues, Lions, Sharks, and Bulls.

Harry Jones: “Brett is a perfectionist who is seldom perfect. I’m a half-arsed guesser who can’t help being awesome. Paddy is a mystic; his predictions go beyond mere right and wrong. Digger of Wellington is my tipping rival, and I have to take him down.

“I think I have an opportunity to take the lead this week. Digger has overreacted to the Blues’ meltdown in Johannesburg. They’re playing the Force, so the question is ‘who wants it less?’. The answer is ‘who knows?’. But I think the Blues, man for man, match up with the Force quite well, so even if both teams don’t care, the Blues are just faster and better.

“The rest of my tips are identical to the hairy Wellingtonian: the Crusaders’ restart, lineout, and scrum will trouble the Waratahs, the Reds are just as good in humidity as the Sunwolves, the Chiefs will run the Rebels off the park. The Sharks won’t be worried by the Kings in a match that does not deserve ‘derby’ status, and the bitterly disappointed Jaguares will miss their two banned forwards when they play Warren Whiteley’s excellent Lions.

“But what about the Bulls versus Stormers derby? This is probably the most important match of the round in terms of settling the fate of a conference early. A bonus point win by the Bulls would put them in pole position for the playoffs, but if Adriaan Strauss and his men take nothing, they are in jeopardy.

“But it doesn’t even need extra significance to be a beauty of a bout. The north-south derby in South Africa is enough in and of itself. It’s a clash of cultures.

“I haven’t tipped against the Stormers yet. I’ll stick with them, even though Robbie Fleck is driving me mad by not naming Schalk Burger captain; he has to come on every week at 55 minutes and turn it around anyway. Eben Etzebeth returns and maybe, just maybe, Damian de Allende will finally play rugby.”

Tips: Crusaders, Brumbies, Hurricanes, Waratahs, Stormers, Cheetahs, Lions, and Sharks.

Paddy Effeney: “I’m not predicting a happy week for Aussies.

“I’m picking the Crusaders in the game of the round for a very specific reason which I’ll speak to in the big question. The Reds just have too much something for the Sunwolves – I’m not sure what that something is, but it’ll be enough.

“I watched the Rebels beat the Chiefs at AAMI last year in a really good game, but this year it’ll be the opposite result in the Waikato. Similarly, the Blues will have too much running for the Force, who won’t be able to stop them. The Lions-Jaguares should be a cracker, but I think the Jaguares never really had any puff. Sharks in a stinker and Bulls in an excellent game to round things off.

Tips: Crusaders, Reds, Chiefs, Blues, Lions, Sharks, and Bulls.

Diggercane: “Canes by plenty.”

Brett’s note: Sorry, that’s my error; that’s just part of the template each week now. Carry on, Digger…

“I expect the Crusaders to respond strongly this week after their loss, especially at home so will back them this week even over a Waratahs showing some much improved form. The Reds will be too strong at home for the Sunwolves, too, though wouldn’t be surprised if the Wolves caused a few problems. The Chiefs at home are a must tip.

“Force and Blues leave me a little perplexed, surely the Blues will be embarrassed and come out hissing after last week but their away record also speaks volumes. I am not really sure here but will back the home side after a week of rest, and because the Blues inspire very little confidence at the moment.

“The Lions and Jaguares could be really entertaining and it’s the home side for me again while the Sharks should destroy the Kings in Durban.

“Potentially the match of the round and a classic South African derby to wrap your laughing gear round. Neither side has really flattered in recent weeks but I see more upside with the Stormers, so will lean on them as my only away pick this week.”

Tips: Crusaders, Reds, Chiefs, Force, Lions, Sharks, and Stormers.

The Big Super Rugby Question (from Paddy): We’ve seen a transition of power in Super Rugby in the past few weeks. Is this a tournament for fast finishers or false dawns? Do the Waratahs and the Highlanders now earn top spot in the power rankings for their respective conferences?

And as an additional spicy meatball: does Kurtley Beale’s injury kill off the Tahs?

Digger: “In short, I’m buggered if I really know.

“First exhibit, Your Honour – the Hurricanes’ performance two weeks ago against the Lions to now – meaning consistent form seems hard to gauge.

“I’ve mentioned a few times that the Highlanders had me weary; they are the defending champions and showed last year they are well aware of how to time their run. Meanwhile, several teams promoted as likely favourites seem to have taken a backward step.

“The Brumbies still have what appeals as the ‘easier’ finish compared to the Waratahs but regardless, both the Hurricanes and Highlanders have the bye this week then go at it against each other the week after.

“With both sides having to deal with derby matches to complete the regular season, it is more than plausible that the second Australian side could catch up and knock one off – but it will be tough for the Waratahs losing Beale and the spark he can provide in attack.

“With many Kiwi teams to come, the Waratahs will need to score points and Beale’s loss is a blow to those aspirations. The Hurricanes have not been in inspiring form and a bye this week shapes as a bit of a saviour. They will be hoping the bye robs a touch of momentum from the Highlanders.

“Adding another curve ball to proceedings is the June break after which all teams have to deal with and pick up the pieces and effectively start again. Again, the Highlanders showed last season that fast finishing towards the end of the season is effective and I suspect it will be the same again this season for the side that adapts quickest, and dare I say it, with the depth to cope.

“As sure as mustard, there will be injuries in June.”

Harry: “Paddy the Part-Time Prophet asks a lot of questions this week.

“First, I will say the loss of Kurtley Beale will mostly be felt by Israel Folau, who was the beneficiary of many of those late, flat passes and offloads. I don’t think the Tahs will suffer defensively, because Beale has always missed one of every three or four tackles in his career (and avoids some altogether), but they will miss his spark on attack.

“The Tahs have a tougher road home than the Brumbies, but for some reason, I see them finishing well and taking it. In the New Zealand conference, I think all bets are off. I still see the Crusaders and Chiefs with the inside track.”

Paddy: “I’ll answer the first question last and the last question first.

“Kurtley’s absence is why I’m tipping the Crusaders to beat the Waratahs, despite the fact both teams are on the opposite trajectory.

“By no means do I think this is the end of the Tahs – they still sit atop the Aussie conference. However, it’s hard to see them getting over all those quality teams in the next few weeks, while the Brumbies enjoy a comparatively light trot. Beat the Crusaders in an early game and I will start believing.

“As for the Highlanders, I think they’re on the charge. With games against the Kings and Jaguares to come, they must be very close to pencilling in a finals spot; if they can win at least one game against New Zealand opposition.”

Brett: The answer to the first question is ‘both’.

There have already been so many false dawns this season – Brumbies and Chiefs immediately come to mind – and there’s likely to more before the year is out. Funnily enough, had Beale not gone down, the Waratah might have been entering false dawn zone this very weekend.

But the Highlanders are again showing the benefits of momentum, just as they did last season (they won seven of their last eight, only losing when they elected to rest all their All Blacks in the same game). And the Crusaders have been riding a similar wave since about Round 4.

Do the Waratahs and the Highlanders earn top spot in the power rankings for their conferences? Yeah, I think so. It’s pretty clear they are currently the best sides either side of the Tasman.

Are the Tahs done without Beale? Let me first answer this question with a question: since when has the ‘Big Question’ been pluralised?!

And yeah, sadly I think they are done. I’ve said it several times this week, that in the form he was in, I don’t think the Waratahs could have less afforded to lose any one player than Beale. He’s been that important and that focal for their attack this year; I’m not sure how they recover from that loss, not with the run home they’ve got.

The summary

The Verdict
The Crowd is officially doomed this weekend; doomed I tells ya. Tipping the same as me after more than 380 votes simply cannot and will not end well. But you’ve made your bed now…

Crusaders 87.4%
Reds 87.9%
Chiefs 94.0%
Blues 64.2%
Lions 89.8%
Sharks 99.0%
Bulls 53.5%

I’ve commented on the Bulls-Stormers several times, and once again, I have to admit to surprise. It started out with less than 2% separating the teams, blew out to nearly 60% for the Bulls, and in the end came right back in. In fact, it was only within one percentage point of being the closest vote ever..