It was a wet weekend of football, as more than 250mm of rain hit the Gold Coast in the 24 hours leading up to the Suns’ clash with Sydney. But can we also invent a measurement for how much cold water was poured on team’s hopes this weekend?
Richmond, pumped by 70 points against North Melbourne on a chilly Hobart evening, clearly had a weekend to forget. Dreams of another fairytale turnaround in the second half of the season are now just that.
Collingwood had the chance to put forward their finals intent when Port Adelaide came to the MCG. One club left the field having done so, and it wasn’t the home team.
St Kilda, the side wedged between the Tigers and Pies on the ladder, aren’t in possession of a hype machine even half the size of either of those clubs. But any hope of reversing their interstate fortunes, and maybe launching a run at the eight, was dented once again during their trip to Adelaide.
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The consequence of these results is that we can probably declare all teams 12th and below are now out of the finals race. It would take a mammoth effort from here, particularly as the top eight appear locked in.
Port Adelaide, Carlton and Melbourne are between the two packs. If there’s a Steven Bradbury candidate to glide into the eight, it will be from this group – and the Power look the most likely.
But beyond that, the hype machines can surely be turned off for another year.
+1 // Ladder: eighth (7W, 4L)
Before Crows fans get too excited, the team at the top of these rankings has lost their next game the last three weeks. That said, Adelaide look alright at the moment.
Put it away early against St Kilda with a six-goals-to-one first term, backing up the win over Greater Western Sydney the week before. Josh Jenkins was the star with seven goals.
Trip this week to face West Coast, a side that performs much better at home, will be very interesting indeed.
-1 // Ladder: sixth (7W, 4L)
Kept it close but Geelong were the better side. Scoring shots were 28 to 18, inside 50s were 76 to 48. After the last fortnight, questions about travel can be reinserted into the GWS narrative. Another very interesting match-up this week: GWS versus the Swans at Spotless Stadium.
+2 // Ladder: fourth (8W, 3L)
Any side that can keep Nic Naitanui and Josh Kennedy as quiet as they were yesterday is a high chance of getting the win. Throw in 30-plus touches from four players (Lachie Hunter, Matthew Boyd, Jack Macrae and Marcus Bontempelli) and there were plenty of good signs for the Dogs against the Eagles.
-2 // Ladder: second (9W, 2L)
In the conditions, beating Gold Coast by 38 may have been the equivalent of a 90-point win on dry land, so the -2 here can be interpreted as harsh. A trip to face GWS this week is a chance to regain those spots though.
+2 // Ladder: third (8W, 3L)
Credit to Zac Smith for almost drawing equal with Shane Mumford in the ruck (31 hitouts to 34, six hitouts to advantage to eight) but also managing 19 touches around the ground and a goal. A needed win against the Giants after a down couple of weeks.
-3 // Ladder: seventh (7W, 4L)
Another loss on the road. The usual suspects were quiet against the Dogs and while they were in with a sniff late, it’s hard to get too carried away about the Eagles right now, at least after they jump on a plane.
-1 // Ladder: first (10W, 1L)
Braved the chill and registered a convincing win over Richmond in Hobart. Rest assured, the -1 doesn’t mean they went backwards. Geelong skipped ahead by beating the top-ranked team. What a perfect time for the two to go head-to-head at Etihad Stadium.
No change // Ladder: fifth (8W, 3L)
Scores were tied at three-quarter time against Melbourne, but the reigning premiers didn’t let their opponents add another goal from that point. The Hawks have shown themselves capable of surviving a scare this season.
No change // Ladder: ninth (6W, 5L)
You can possibly even make the argument the top nine is locked in, too. After Port saw off challengers Melbourne and Collingwood in consecutive weeks, it’s possible.
Pretty bleak that the Power (ranked 18th for hitouts) were smashed 39-11 in the stat by Collingwood (ranked 17th for hitouts). That shows you what they’re dealing with in the absence of Paddy Ryder and Matthew Lobbe.
+3 // Ladder: tenth (6W, 5L)
Like last week, I’d like to once again ask for even a glance at the Blues’ post-bye draw before pumping up the idea of finals too much. Still, a lot to like from the win over Brisbane. When Bryce Gibbs had a quiet afternoon, youngsters like Jacob Weitering stepped forward.
+3 // Ladder: 11th (5W, 6L)
Made the clash with Hawthorn a contest, which was a positive. Dom Tyson and Bernie Vince both had 30-plus touches and it was great to see Jack Trengove playing again. As for the +3 after a loss? You can credit that to massive losses to teams previously above them.
-1 // Ladder: 13th (4W, 7L)
Lucky to only be -1. Another belting on the road, this time to Adelaide. Injuries were a factor this time around, but recent history speaks for itself. Sad news for youngster Hugh Goddard, with his season over due to an achilles injury.
-3 // Ladder: 12th (4W, 7L)
If the Pies were going to show they were serious about finals, a home game against fellow mid-tablers Port Adelaide was a must-win. Instead, as Nathan Buckley put it: “We had three blokes at the contest and Port Adelaide had five, then 50m away four or five seconds later, where you think our extras should be, it was three versus five or six Port Adelaide players.”
+1 // Ladder: 16th (1W, 10L)
Most weeks I’m inevitably asked why Fremantle aren’t last. Well, for this week at least, there’s a 79-point gap between the Dockers and the last-ranked side. If you look beyond wins and losses, they’re better than a couple of teams.
Big props to Lachie Neale, the AFL disposals leader (yes, I had to fact check that too), who finished with 42 touches at 90 per cent efficiency.
-3 // Ladder: 14th (4W, 7L)
After three wins in a row, the crash back down to Earth. Which makes it a good time to run into Gold Coast, enjoy a week off and then play Brisbane. Or is it? Losing either of those games – both at the MCG – would dial the pressure up.
+2 // Ladder: 15th (3W, 8L)
Tough to gauge too much given the conditions against the Sydney Swans, but with the Lions and Bombers losing to lesser quality opposition and the Suns being somewhat competitive, they rise this week.
-1 // Ladder: 17th (1W, 10L)
The Lions have the lowest disposal efficiency in the comp at 70.6 per cent. Carlton, the side that beat them this week, rank third at 75.1 per cent. It’s a tough gap to bridge.
-1 // Ladder: 18th (1W, 10L)
Losing to Fremantle was to be expected. It was always going to be a struggle for the Bombers to stay away from 18th spot. Zach Merrett had 37 disposals against the Dockers, albeit at 65 per cent.
TomC
Roar Guru
Michael's power rankings providing a rather good set of predictions for this current round so far.
brian
Guest
geelong's ceo when calling for a kardinia park final stated it would not be feasible to host at kardinia against a hawthorn or collingwood but hoped it would be possible against a GWS.
andyl12
Guest
Thanks for that TB, I hope more Carlton fans are starting to think the way you are. Carlton may have been the team of the 20th century VFL but this is the AFL and this is C21. Teams that are successful these days are the teams who play to the realities of the modern national competition, and that is what Carlton will need to do to be a premiership challenger again. If you keep winning then you probably deserve a couple Friday-nighters next year, but certainly not a return to the 2015 farce.
andyl12
Guest
true blue
Guest
Andy- As a blues fan I totally agree that Carlton have tried to live off their inheritance. I welcome the new Carlton, one that admits it is rebuilding and one that doesn't hark back to the past. Instead of aping what Richmond, Collingwood, and Essendon are doing and trying to keep up with the Joneses, maybe we are finally learning some humility, humbleness, and patience from the Bulldogs and St Kilda. One thing that disturbs me is that I hear we are asking for Friday night games next year. This is a worrying sign as it seems to be a departure from the more humble and patient Carlton that I am enjoying being around. We should stick to the road we are on and not fall prey to big four hubris. The Elliott days are gone and let's not go down that path again. Hopefully Carlton will become a club that embraces its rank and file multi cultural northern suburban supporter base and stop speaking with the voice of the toffs who have hijacked the identity of the club over the decades, be they Menzies, Elliott, Fraser, Matheson et al. None of these people have a connection to the suburbs that the Carlton Football Club represents. People who previously hated Carlton are starting to have more time for them but if we go down the Friday night route we will be quite rightly resented. When he have got to the level of Sydney, Geelong, and Hawthorn we can start talking about Friday night, but until then let's stick with Sunday.
hal
Guest
InvisiblePJ: yes, footyology is a great show. I am a big fan of Mark Fine and Rowan Connelly. They are knowledgeable, witty, and off beat. Another great show is Finey's final siren on SEN after the Friday night game and Sunday twilight game
true blue
Guest
Yes Silvagni's mark was very impressive
andyl12
Guest
PB- none of that detracts from the three-peat. In all three cases, those teams said in the leadup to the game that the MCG held no fears for them. Once you say that you lose your right to accuse the opponent of getting an unfair advantage.
TomC
Roar Guru
Some people need to chill.
Bobby
Guest
This comment is spot on. Shame on you Roar for allowing this article to be under an "expert" tab
Perry Bridge
Guest
Looking at the last 3 weeks for most recent form and I look at GWS who are 6th with 7 wins and 4 losses. The GWS last 3 weeks beat the Doggies in Sydney, and lost on the road to Adelaide and Geelong. So, 1-2 added onto a starting point of 6-2. North last 3 weeks lost to Sydney and smash Carlton (who beat Geelong) by 67 and Richmond (who beat Sydney) by 70. So, 2-1 added onto a starting point of 8-0. Wondering if scoreboard margin alone is used to perhaps paint the 10 pt loss by GWS to Geelong as a better effort than North's 26 pt loss to Sydney?? Because - as it was North actually had 1 extra I50, 2 more clearances and just 1 less scoring shot. Lost the tackles and contested possessions. Compare to GWS losing by just 10 pts at Geelong - however, lucky Geelong wasteful as 10 less scoring shots, and 26 less I50s and smashed in contested possessions. I'd suggest North came away from the Sydney clash noting they, despite a slight drop in contested intensity that they created sufficient opportunity that with greater efficiency going forward might well have at least been up at half time and not as far off the mark as some might think. I do also ponder this - the run of form of the opposition irrespective of ladder position perhaps needs to be factored in. North smashed Richmond by 70 pts. Rich are 14th on 4-7. However, they came into the game full of beans having won 3 on the trot including a stirring 1 pt win over Sydney. The previous fortnight North beat Carlton who came in on the back of 4 wins, got smashed by North by 67 and since then have put away Geelong and Brisbane for 6 out of 7. Does this come into it anywhere or simply current ladder position? I do think perhaps the author needs to at least include the overall metric that is arrived at and show the change in that from the previous week too. We don't necessarily need to know how it is arrived at.
Perry Bridge
Guest
It certainly at present detracts the comparison base of Hawthorn 3-peat against the Brisbane 3-peat. Brisbane beat Essendon, and Collingwood twice at the MCG compared to Hawthorn having vanquished Fremantle, Sydney and West Coast so Hawthorn the home team and home state in all 3 of their wins. The cards have fallen kindly. The run home is hugely important with respect to top 8 and home finals.
Davico55
Guest
Michael??? Michael??? You there??? Oh got called out last week about click bait, went even further with it this week and now have vanished from site, when usually you try to defend your rankings. Then again I could not defend these either. My last time checking this article along with many others by the looks.
andyl12
Guest
Haha. I wonder if Melbourne could also be put in that category, given that they still try to represent Menzies-era gentleman culture and haven't won a flag since that era. To a certain extent Carlton and Essendon both live off their inheritance also and are both approaching a record for length of a premiership drought, but it's hard to bag Carlton right now and this page probably isn't the place to bag Essendon.
Paul D
Roar Guru
The SCG wasn't available at all, on any day, due to the ground being redeveloped. It was ANZ on Friday, or the game didn't get played in Sydney at all. I wouldn’t have a problem with the Hawks playing a qualifying final, on principle, at their home ground in Tasmania. They have a demonstrable connection with the area. Not sure their opponents would be that thrilled but! Northern Territory I can’t really get behind as no club has an ongoing association, apart from that one game that invariably gets played at Alice Springs. But that’s a theoretical case anyway, no club would make their supporters travel all that way for a final. The Hawks are probably one of the few teams who could play a final in Tassie without backlash given how many finals their Melbourne based supporters have seen in recent years!
andyl12
Guest
So Paul D- re your last paragraph, do you think Hawthorn should play their home QFs in Tasmania if they wish to? What about QFs in the Northern Territory? The only thing I'm sore about re 2012 is when people misrepresent the rationale for what happened. Hawthorn shouldn't have been made to pay for a contract that Sydney never should've signed, given that an availability clash would inevitably happen one day. Instead, Sydney should've been forced to nullify their ANZ agreement and play at the SCG on the Saturday. And that's what would've happened if the AFL hadn't been fixated with crowd figures- how ironic that only an extra 10,000 showed up in Sydney that night and half of them were probably Collingwood supporters. When you consider the whinges we get from outside Victoria every time finals scheduling doesn't go their way, I think it's only fair that this one gets mentioned too.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
That's great for Hawthorn fans and good confidence for them for a tilt at a 4th flag despite their position. But how they performed in 2012 is not at all relevant to 2016 Power Rankings. How they performed in Round 1 is actually not relevant. It's what's happened the last few weeks that is.
michael RVC
Roar Pro
Bobby, it's only remotely related to comparative performance. And where WB and NM are concerned, it's a "Cinderella" complex, trouble is it's not a fairy tail that will come true. Not sure if you heard episode 200 of the luv story out of 360 last night, 30 minutes of drivel from the boofhead about these two teams. Honestly that show has lost any credibility on balanced coverage of the week, perhaps that is no longer it's purpose.
InvisiblePJs
Roar Rookie
Thanks for the heads up Hal - had not been aware of the Footyology program. A lot of laughs - I'll be a regular viewer from now on!
Macca
Guest
True blue - 12 is possible but just not likely. As for Silvagni he now has 10 goals from 5 games and seems to get plenty of it - Josh Fraser talked about not rushing him but I think this week would be a great opportunity, St Kilda is flush with key defenders and Walker could get 2 weeks to freshen up his body. Whether he plays or not it definitely looks like he will join Curnow as long term forward prospects - if McKay is as good as we are lead to believe our forward line will be very dangerous in 3 years. Did you see Silvagnis last quArter Mark - very much like his old man.