The Sharks will not win the 2016 premiership. Don’t get me wrong, ten wins in a row is impressive and they are travelling well, they just won’t win the premiership.
This is why.
1. Lack of discipline
As of the end of Round 14 the Sharks are the most penalised team in the game. Their main rivals for the premiership concede far less penalties each game.
The Broncos and the Storm are the two least penalised sides in the comp and the Cowboys come in mid-field at about eighth most penalised. Discipline will cost the Sharks in big games.
The three main offenders are Michael Ennis, James Maloney and Andrew Fifita. They are each guaranteed to give away at least one penalty per game with Ennis and Maloney tied for the most penalised players in the game and Fifita coming in at fourth. No one is surprised by this, and neither are the refs who (fairly or not) will come into each Sharks game keeping a closer eye on these players.
Last Monday night against the Cowboys, Ennis gave away three penalties, Maloney two and Fifita while not penalised was very lucky his ill discipline didn’t give away a penalty while in possession when he thrashed at a Cowboys player with ball still in hand. It will cost them.
2. The finals won’t be played at Shark Park
Even if the Sharks finish minor premier, their finals games will either be played at Allianz or ANZ. Neither of the grounds hold any fears for the Cowboys, Storm and Broncos.
They win there all the time. As much as people have raved about the Sharks ten straight and beating all three above mentioned teams in this period, their wins against them all came at Shark Park.
Home ground advantage will not be nearly as significant at Allianz or ANZ and with the big game experience in the other three teams, it is virtually gone.
3. They have peaked too early
The Sharks are in good form now, but they won’t be able to maintain this until the finals. They have 11 games remaining and overall it is a fairly easy run home. While they are likely to win the majority of their games I can’t see them maintaining a high standard playing the Roosters twice, Newcastle, Warriors, Rabbitohs etc.
They will probably lose to the Panthers minus their Origin players and I expect they might lose a game or two they are expected to win (potentially Eels, Titans, Dragons or Raiders) and their momentum will be well and truly halted by the time they face the Storm in Melbourne in Round 26.
They need to be better than they are playing now to win the comp and I can only see them losing form in the lead up to the finals.
4. Paul Gallen is their captain
Gallen lifting the premiership trophy? Channelling Gus Gould, “No, no, no, no, no!” The smug look on his face when he lifted the State of Origin shield in 2014 was enough to make me hate NSW for the next 20 years.
And it’s not just Queenslander’s who have an intense dislike for the guy. Every NSW supporter I know (and it’s a lot) can’t stand the guy and are wishing him out of the NSW team. Gallen lifting the trophy would leave 80 per cent of footy fans in a bad mood all summer.
The only way we could bear a Sharks win, is if Gallen is suspended during grand final week for a cheap shot on someone (likely Thurston) in a preliminary final. Watching Gallen have to watch the Sharks win, would at least lessen the blow of the Sharks winning the premiership.
Harsh? Yep, but you know you feel the same.
5. History is against them
This is the Sharks we are talking about! If they win the comp, who will be the punching bag of the NRL? The North Sydney Bears are long gone and it just isn’t the same bagging the other two teams (Titans and Warriors) who are yet to win a comp.
Surely it can’t happen. It’s just not meant to be.
Then again I could be wrong and maybe this is the year Harold Holt returns to find the porch light on.
JonyP
Guest
I think people focus to much on stats fact is they are finding ways to win games and that's what matter some examples where the Bulldogs and Cowboys games there stats where terrible but managed to bring it home. So this is why I think they are a red hot change to win
warnie
Guest
When did Michael O'keefe ever have a rugby league ball in his hands,under 7's ,that's about it.who is he anyway,never heard of him,
The Barry
Roar Guru
Gallen has busted his backside for years in origin and people are having a crack because he looked smug? I've just had another look and I didn't see smugness I saw absolute joy and relief. Have we got so petty we knock someone for celebrating a massive achievement? What about Cameron Smith laughing his head off last year when he lifted the trophy? We could call that smug or disrespectful - I'd rather just say it was a bloke celebrating a win in the toughest arena in league.
JVGO
Guest
Sharks have knocked the Broncos out of the comp three times since '88 though. We are their bogey team. It shouldn't be a problem especially since now we actually have a team that is better than them. Playing the Cowboys in Sydney shouldn't worry the Sharks either. Manly are our bogey team at SFS but they clearly won't be around.
up in the north
Roar Rookie
As much as Origin is totally disruptive to the competition proper, it does break the season up into two separate halves. You could almost say that the pre Origin form is no guide to the final eight make up. I like it.
Michael Keeffe
Roar Guru
Haha. Not bitter at all, just sharing an opinion and hoping to stir up a few Sharkies fans. Lighten up buddy
Patrick
Guest
What a pointless article. How can you assume anything at round 14? Really bitter article from someone who clearly has a chip on his shoulder.
Michael Keeffe
Roar Guru
The Sharks overall history in finals at Allianz is 5 wins and 10 losses since 1988. In the last 10 years they've played 4 finals there for 2 wins and 2 losses. They've played one QLD team in those last 4 games. They beat the Cowboys in a Semi in 2013 (7th tackle game). I wouldn't classify that as a strong finals record at Allianz but I guess when you've never won a grand final you could look at this record with a half glass full view of the world.
Joel
Guest
alternate game plan ... what being offside all night?
JVGO
Guest
Sharks historically have a strong record at Allianz in finals football, particularly against QLD teams. It won't worry them at all.
JVGO
Guest
Yep, the doubt is not all the other crap, it is one more strong front rower off the bench. I was hoping it would be Defeater, he was a big loss. Having said that I still think they can win the comp. They tested out an alternate game plan against the Cowboys and dominated them. They should have scored about three tries the dominance they had in the second half but I think Flanagan was keeping his powder dry and will have some ammunition ready for the big games. Barba and Holmes were noticeably quiet and they tried Chad running against Thurston time and again and that didn't really work. He has the firepower and skill available. I think he would run Barba at Thurston when he is tired next time when it matters.
Bonza
Roar Rookie
Cowboys had a similar run last year of unbeaten games, didn't seem to hurt them. You have a problem with Gallen, fine, doesn't seem to affect his team though. Ennis gives the ball to the best option, unlike Farah at Origin level. Yes, they won't play finals at Shark Park and I think they realise that. Keep in mind they have an arrogance about them that keeps them in games, as seen against Bulldogs recently. I think the Storm are the real danger team but that's another discussion. Am a Tigers fan but wouldn't begrudge the Sharks of a comp. They just knocked off the premiers. I can only assume you were attacked by a great white as a lad because most logical people would say Cronulla are in this comp up to their eyeballs.
Sharkattack
Guest
I don't think they have peaked at all. In fact, I think they are still playing within themselves. They just had two hard matches against quality opposition (Dogs and Cowboys) and won the matches when they were there to be won. The Sharks play Allianz Stadium very well. Their fans will outnumber whoever the opposition is, as it is likely to be either the Broncos or the Cowboys. Like any long suffering Shark, i can't believe it will happen until I see it happen. Been barracking for them for two long. Things like giving away penalties and ball security are easy fixes. That's Flanno's job to fix those things. They will have to make sure they get good wins against weaker opposition. Parramatta are always a problem, they always bob up when they are expected to lose, but the Sharks SHOULD set a goal of no losses at home this season. It is VERY refreshing to finally see a Cronulla side that can score tries. It was painful for years watching the graft crap. Totally ineffectve.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Thanks Michael, didn't realize they would be doing that. I think that makes a massive difference playing at Allianz and ANZ as the out of towners do ok there because they play there a lot more than at Sharks Park and also Sharks do much better at Shark Park. They should do better playing in Sydney though than QLD or Melbourne. The last round is going to be interesting seeing how they perform in Melbourne as that has not been a happy hunting ground for them.
jamesb
Guest
*correction, "where I had him next in line after Cronk and JT for Qld and Australia"
jamesb
Guest
Stats don't always tell the full story. Some of those stats could be bolstered against poor opposition. Personally, without looking at the stats, I still think Hunt was in better form last year to the extent where I had him next in line after Smith and Cronk for Qld and Australia. As for Cronk and Smith, they are legends. But come finals time, Melbourne does need someone else to step up. And that someone else could be Munster.
Michael Keeffe
Roar Guru
No doubt we can find reasons each top 4 team can't win, I just chose to focus on the Sharks! I do disagree with a couple of your points. Smith and Cronk will have more than enough energy come September, they are proven greats who've won World Cups, Tests, Origins, Grand Finals. They live for big games. And I don't think that Ben Hunt is going as bad as everyone thinks. He is first in Try Assists with 17 which is 4 more than the next best (Brooks & Thurston). He's in the top 20 for linebreaks, the only half with more than him is Milford, and he's 8th for linebreak assists. He's not doing as bad as people think
jamesb
Guest
Yep, the Sharks will play their home finals at those big Sydney stadiums, and not at Shark Park. However, I still think Cronulla would rather stay in Sydney, then travelling to Melbourne or Qld.
Michael Keeffe
Roar Guru
They only won one grand final from three minor premierships, so something stopped them in 2014 & 2015.
Michael Keeffe
Roar Guru
No doubt points 3 - 5 are what I hope will happen, point 3 is based on a hunch. But point 1 & 2 are more based on analysis than hope. There is no disputing they are the most penalized team in the comp and not having finals at Shark Park can't help them.