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The Sharks will not win the 2016 premiership. Don’t get me wrong, ten wins in a row is impressive and they are travelling well, they just won’t win the premiership.
This is why.
1. Lack of discipline
As of the end of Round 14 the Sharks are the most penalised team in the game. Their main rivals for the premiership concede far less penalties each game.
The Broncos and the Storm are the two least penalised sides in the comp and the Cowboys come in mid-field at about eighth most penalised. Discipline will cost the Sharks in big games.
The three main offenders are Michael Ennis, James Maloney and Andrew Fifita. They are each guaranteed to give away at least one penalty per game with Ennis and Maloney tied for the most penalised players in the game and Fifita coming in at fourth. No one is surprised by this, and neither are the refs who (fairly or not) will come into each Sharks game keeping a closer eye on these players.
Last Monday night against the Cowboys, Ennis gave away three penalties, Maloney two and Fifita while not penalised was very lucky his ill discipline didn’t give away a penalty while in possession when he thrashed at a Cowboys player with ball still in hand. It will cost them.
2. The finals won’t be played at Shark Park
Even if the Sharks finish minor premier, their finals games will either be played at Allianz or ANZ. Neither of the grounds hold any fears for the Cowboys, Storm and Broncos.
They win there all the time. As much as people have raved about the Sharks ten straight and beating all three above mentioned teams in this period, their wins against them all came at Shark Park.
Home ground advantage will not be nearly as significant at Allianz or ANZ and with the big game experience in the other three teams, it is virtually gone.
3. They have peaked too early
The Sharks are in good form now, but they won’t be able to maintain this until the finals. They have 11 games remaining and overall it is a fairly easy run home. While they are likely to win the majority of their games I can’t see them maintaining a high standard playing the Roosters twice, Newcastle, Warriors, Rabbitohs etc.
They will probably lose to the Panthers minus their Origin players and I expect they might lose a game or two they are expected to win (potentially Eels, Titans, Dragons or Raiders) and their momentum will be well and truly halted by the time they face the Storm in Melbourne in Round 26.
They need to be better than they are playing now to win the comp and I can only see them losing form in the lead up to the finals.
4. Paul Gallen is their captain
Gallen lifting the premiership trophy? Channelling Gus Gould, “No, no, no, no, no!” The smug look on his face when he lifted the State of Origin shield in 2014 was enough to make me hate NSW for the next 20 years.
And it’s not just Queenslander’s who have an intense dislike for the guy. Every NSW supporter I know (and it’s a lot) can’t stand the guy and are wishing him out of the NSW team. Gallen lifting the trophy would leave 80 per cent of footy fans in a bad mood all summer.
The only way we could bear a Sharks win, is if Gallen is suspended during grand final week for a cheap shot on someone (likely Thurston) in a preliminary final. Watching Gallen have to watch the Sharks win, would at least lessen the blow of the Sharks winning the premiership.
Harsh? Yep, but you know you feel the same.
5. History is against them
This is the Sharks we are talking about! If they win the comp, who will be the punching bag of the NRL? The North Sydney Bears are long gone and it just isn’t the same bagging the other two teams (Titans and Warriors) who are yet to win a comp.
Surely it can’t happen. It’s just not meant to be.
Then again I could be wrong and maybe this is the year Harold Holt returns to find the porch light on.
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