Stats, history and common sense are all against me on this one… wait, that’s what I said last time. Well, if I was up against it backing New South Wales in Game 1, saying they’re going to tie the series up at The Cauldron tonight is crazy talk.
So bring on the straight jacket, because the Cockroaches are going to win.
Last time out I had a big ol’ question mark over the coaching abilities of new Queensland clipboard holder, Kevin Walters.
While I wouldn’t say he proved anything – with the likes of Johnathan Thurston, Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk in the side, there will always be questions over how much influence any coach really has on the Maroons – what Game 1 showed was that Blues coach Laurie Daley is coming into his own.
More Origin
» Laurie Daley doesn’t appoint the referees, but it wasn’t always that way
» State of Origin Game 2: Why Queensland will win
» State of Origin Game 2: Expert tips and predictions
» State of Origin key questions: NSW edition
» State of Origin key questions: Queensland edition
His gameplan was not perfect – it was easy to blame Dylan Walker for that brain explosion, but what was the logic of selecting him if he was only going to be sent on in the final minutes? – but Daley’s performance after the final whistle was up there with the greats.
Words like ‘cool’ and ‘laid back’ are most often used to describe Daley. But his post-match spray at referees Gerard Sutton and Ben Cummins was Ricky Stuart stuff.
“Put it this way, I’ll be asking those two referees to not be officiating in Game 2,” Daley told the press. “There’s your story. Based on history and based on that game.”
That the same referees will be in charge of tonight’s match – seriously, the only change is to the touchies, even the video refs and standby refs are the same – is beside the point. A four-four penalty count and Josh Morris’ try being awarded on the field tells you that the whistleblowers probably did a fair job by the Blues. And Laurie likely knew it.
But he’s also been around the game long enough to know that a good coach praises his players when they win, and deflects any possible criticism elsewhere when they lose.
From Morris’ dropped ball, poor defence leading to Dane Gagai’s try, or Adam Reynolds missing the conversion that would have given the Blues a 6-2 lead, there was plenty to pick at in terms of NSW’s performance.
But Daley changed the story – and not to ‘the refs are crap’, but to ‘Laurie is cranky’.
The chilled-as-ice character suddenly showing a bit of fire. It would have been the biggest story of the following day were it not for the ridiculous, puritanical reaction to Sam Thaiday’s virginity crack.
Laurie’s bit of Wayne Bennett 101 proved he is really growing into his role as a State of Origin coach, which was enforced when he picked a side for Game 2 with only injury-enforced changes.
As I mentioned above, there were some errors in NSW’s Game 1 performance – hey, you don’t lose the game if you’re perfect – but a 6-4 scoreline tells you that the team selected were that close.
And you don’t make wholesale changes when you’re that close. You tweak.
Clearly Daley’s initial strategy was to simply tweak his gameplan, which makes sense when you go from stormy Sydney to bone-dry Brisbane, but injuries saw more changes come about. And they may end up being a blessing in disguise.
After that brain-snap play-the-ball, the pitchforks were out for Walker. But he showed in his very next game what he’s capable of, scoring a try and setting up another in a stunning first half for Manly against the Panthers.
Morris has been a faithful servant for NSW for years, and his defensive work on Greg Inglis is the benchmark for containing one of the game’s most dangerous player. But the Blues need to start scoring tries, and Walker brings x-factor in attack.
There’s a lot of talk about how dangerous Queensland will be on a fast, dry Suncorp track (pretty sure you have to use those exact four words to describe the Brisbane pitch), but the Blues have got Walker, Michael Jennings, Matt Moylan, Blake Ferguson and Josh Mansour licking their lips at the chance to get clean ball out wide tonight.
Then – and we’ll give improving coach Daley the benefit of the doubt here – if Jack Bird is properly utilised, there are plenty of points in the Blues.
As per usual, it comes down to the performances of the team’s halves. James Maloney showed in Game 1 that he was ready to take ownership of the Blues No.6 jersey long-term, while Adam Reynolds needs to prove the halfback spot belongs to him.
Still, it’s worth remembering that Andrew Johns said in 2002 he had yet to “dominate” the interstate series – even the greats take time to adjust to the pace and ferocity of Origin. So I’m willing to say Reynolds’ subdued performance was a case of first-game nerves, and look forward to seeing him make his mark tonight.
Finally, the forward battle is where NSW have a small but decided advantage. For talk of Queensland’s pack being ‘mobile’, their big men were seen struggling to get back to the defensive line in Game 1.
Granted, they were down a man after David Klemmer put Michael Morgan out of commission, but if they couldn’t quite keep up in a Sydney slog-fest, are they going to be up for what’s anticipated to be a faster game tonight?
More importantly, there’s a depth of mongrel in the Blues pack – particularly on their bench – and their hardest men have a point to prove to the paroquial Queensland crowd after last year’s final match.
Joe
Guest
Obviously Joe Frost has strong opinions and uses strong language such as "the cockroaches are going to win". Pity he's so wrong. Also wrong about the NSW forwards. A couple of them were too busy trying to niggle and rough up the Qld forwards during the game. If NSW forwards continue to focus their game on niggle, then Qld will continue to win. Have a nice day.
Ryan
Guest
Hahahaha, Nice one, fair enough
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Go the blues!
Warren
Guest
What's paroquial mean?
andrew
Guest
you had me right up until the last five words....
Michael Keeffe
Roar Guru
Dry as. No rain in sight tonight
Ryan
Guest
There is absolutely no way we will win tonight. QLD played rubbish in G1 and still won the day, NSW never got close to scoring, regardless of what anyone thinks about Josh Morris' attempt. NSW cannot threaten the QLD defensive line, we have nothing in attack, even though we have great attacking players because Daley couldn't coach his way out of a paper bag hence Dylan Walker being in the side when he shouldn't even be considered - he's lucky to be a first grader let alone playing SOS. Jack Bird should have started G1 instead of Morris and the fact that Farah is still there......give me a break, Daley apparently hasn't seen Nathan Peats play. Picking the wrong players, those out of form and that garbage about being loyal to players don't win games. I hope we get done by 50 again and then we may get a real coach like Geoff Toovey.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
The Blues have to be more creative with the ball, kicking game needs variety also. Ultimately it will come down to which set of piggies dominates.
Pedro the Maroon
Guest
Yes the Queensland stars are older but the match up across the park player against player shows Qld to be superior. I'll give NSW an edge in the back row only. Add home ground, dry track, 50,000 clincially insane supporters, Corey's last game in Maroon at Lang Park and you have all the ingredients for a Qld win. Of course Qld don't win when Cronk is injured so perhaps he'll be carted off after head butting Klemer's knees or twist an ankle getting off the bus? that would be NSW's sole salvation.
chook
Guest
Greg Inglis is yesterdays hero. He has not shown himself to be a force on the footy field since the Grand Final 2014. He seems to have retired but didn't tell anybody. I do know he has been taking money under false pretences for the past year and a half. Then why is he in the Origin team in 2016 I hear you ask......The simple answer is Buggered if I know????? I would never have picked him and one assumes that these teams are selected based form and not just reputation.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Kind of have that cynical view myself sometimes...especially considering that the majority of the money in betting is apparently going towards a Blues win.
Griffo
Guest
We are all Queenslanders but up here in the Tropical north Brisbane is referred to as down south and Brisbanites are also southerners. It's all relative because when i lived in Victoria, Brisbanites were northerners
Cadfael
Roar Guru
I'll be the cynic and say the Blues to win. Why? Game 3 would then be a sellout (if it already isn't) and the television ratings would rate through the roof. However, if Game 3 was a dead rubber game...
isaac
Guest
good analyses of the game. we hope to night match must be match better than game one. I mean better in terms of open game with scores from both side. myles being drop is due to injury is both a gain and loss for qld but matters concerning his current form is a bit slight gain to qld. in just receiving recent news that CP 13 will end his cheer I would like the long awaited and deserving cowboys servant Gavin cooper to promote t to next origin and swift matt gillet to lock Dylan napa and ethan lowe to be introduce to orgin should nate myles and audin Guerra or Jacob lillyman to be dropped.
Patrick Effeney
Editor
Ha!
Dogforlife
Roar Rookie
Anywhere north of the tweed is up north... and we are all QLDrs. Just as anything below the Tweed is down south to us.
Joe
Roar Rookie
NSW have the better forward pack and they need to use it well to get big metres. Klemmer and Fifita need more game time and Farah just needs to let the ball go to his forwards. They will need to keep the Qlders in their own half for the majority of the game with big hits on their smaller forwards. Once in attacking position they need to attack the O'Neil/Gagai side of the field. This is the weak link in the Qld team and if they exploit it they will get tries. Gagai's defence is not up to scratch and has made simple errors in both of the Origin games he has played but it has been overlooked because Qld have won those games and he makes decent metres. Maloney and Reynolds have to bomb his side of the field every chance they get. Trying to bomb Inglis/Oates side will be a waste and will likely result in a good start to the Qld set. If they can do this they have a chance of winning. For me personally I hope Qld win but if NSW win it will be good for Origin 3, regardless the most important thing I want from this game is no injuries to Cronk and Smith please!!
isaac
Guest
For talk of Queensland’s pack being ‘mobile’, their big men were seen struggling to get back to the defensive line in Game 1. Joe good point above but qld pack has been dominant in years. nsw always pick big bodies but they have yet to prove it. there potentali has been out mashale by qld packs for years and years. I would mind if blues pick 3 meter forward because he will fail to make an impact and use his knee like klemmer. I endorse matt gillet and papalili to sting attack like bees . espect the score to bee qld 38 df nsw 10. corey parker to be man of the match .
Matthew
Guest
Im more worried about the Roars productions of Origin articles if Queensland win the 2nd game and win the series. Im expecting a DROUGHT of Biblical proportions.
andrew
Guest
I was actually listening to the odds for Origin and i was thinking who would bet on NSW unless they do it with their heart, or they have some hunch with no scientific merit? They may win, but there is no argument you can make to say they will or should win. And i think this piece just confirms it. Here are the arguments made; We're going with Dylan Walkers "x-factor" - even though if you were in the park with the named 34 Origin guys picking teams he would probably be one of the last two kids looking at the ground waiting to be picked.... "Walker, Michael Jennings, Matt Moylan, Blake Ferguson and Josh Mansour licking their lips at the chance to get clean ball out wide tonight.". You can just cut and paste that statement and insert the Maroons names and you have the same argument for the other team.. only their players are more likely to get better ball because their halves and hooker are infinitely better.. And the third case was - hoping Reynolds plays like Andrew Johns in his second Origin match.... mmmmm... Why don't we just say, if Cronk and Thurston clash heads when making a tackle and both are concussed and forced to leave the field we have chance... there is probably a better chance of that happening