Adelaide vs North Melbourne: Thursday Night Forecast

Thursday night football is back in the AFL, kicking off with clearly the biggest match of Round 14, where we see North Melbourne travelling to Adelaide Oval to take on the Crows. It’s the only game this week that sees two top eight sides facing off.

You might want to use the rest of the weekend to catch up with extended family, do chores around the house, or even gather a few mates and threaten to drown someone you don’t like before offering up a mealy-mouthed apology.

If you’re travelling over for the game from Melbourne or if you live in Adelaide and you happen to see Brad Scott, buy him a sandwich, a newspaper or stick of gum if you see him scratching around in his pockets. He’ll probably be coming up $30,000 short.

You might even see Lindsay Thomas duck into a café for a quick coffee, or diving, I mean driving around town. But in all seriousness, Thomas should play well tonight, given he loves to perform a big stage.

North are such easy targets aren’t they? But OK, I’ve got my one-liners out of the way, let’s get into the analysis.

Adelaide went into their bye with a well-earned four wins in a row, which took them from a precarious 4-4 record to 8-4, and the chance to well and truly set themselves for a top-four finish given they’ll start strong favourites in their next four matches.

Starting in Round 9, the Crows put Gold Coast to the sword up at Metricon by 75 points, withstood a spirited GWS comeback to down the Giants by 22 points, thumped St Kilda by the best part of 15 goals, then travelled to Perth and launched a second half offensive to blow West Coast off the park.

It was a good mix of belting easy-beats and strong-arming contenders, and they did it off the back of an enormous change of tactics in terms of harnessing an effective press and defending much closer to goal than they had been.

Adelaide won the inside 50 count by big margins in that run of four wins, winning the stat by a cumulative 115:

– Gold Coast 71-35
– GWS 62-52
– St Kilda 69-30
– West Coast 65-35

Such lopsided inside 50 counts usually means quick repeat entries thanks to failed opposition rebound rather than dominance through general play in the middle of the ground.

In the previous block of four matches, Rounds 5-8, the Crows had lost to Geelong, Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn, while also beating Fremantle, and had the following inside 50 counts:

– Hawthorn 48-60
– Fremantle 52-52
– Bulldogs 37-68
– Geelong 44-61

Adelaide’s inside 50 differential during Rounds 5-8 was -15 per game. During Rounds 9-12 it was +29 per match.

The credentials of the opposition in question was much stronger in the Round 5-8 block, no doubt, but it was evident to the eye that the Crows were doing something much different. The loss to the Bulldogs was the awakening, when they were suffocated out of the match.

Even in the first four rounds, when Adelaide went 3-1, they had inside 50 differentials of +1 (lost to North), -15 (beat Port), +4 (beat Richmond) and +4 (beat Sydney).

After that win over Sydney, I wrote that both sides could be contenders, but had defensive weaknesses they needed to fix. I wrote that Don Pyke would be looking to address those issues and he and his coaching staff have clearly done it. The power of The Roar!

Adelaide’s rebounding from half-back is a key weapon of theirs, but they were relying too heavily on it, and launching their counter-attacks from too deep. Now they are setting up closer to goal and implementing a defensive press harder to penetrate, the likes of Rory Laird and Brodie Smith can use their foot skills to find targets closer to goal.

While Adelaide’s momentum is carrying them upwards, North are finding themselves slipping in the other direction, thanks to three losses to fellow contenders in the last month – unable to defeat Hawthorn when they had their chances, and no match for Geelong or Sydney when it counted.

They weren’t disgraced against the Cats or Swans, but they were also found to be just that level below the top tier of contenders.

It is only fair to acknowledge that they are striking injury trouble at just the wrong time, too, when they need to be at their healthiest in this tough run of matches.

Shaun Higgins is their most creative player in the forward half, Jarrad Waite is their best key forward, and Ben Jacobs is arguably the best tagger in the competition. All three are critically important, were missed against Hawthorn and won’t be there tonight either.

Daniel Wells is probably the biggest out, and given North have finished mid-table after the home-and-away rounds in the last two years when he’s had little or no impact, we’ve seen how his presence elevates them to a genuine top four contender.

But while the Kangaroos may be wanting for class with those aforementioned names missing, they won’t be lacking for heart or grit, which they displayed against both Geelong and Hawthorn when undermanned.

Underdogs often set themselves for a big game the week before the bye, as Adelaide did to take down West Coast and St Kilda did to beat Carlton in Round 12. And as Gold Coast (Rd 12) and Essendon (Rd 13) did against Richmond and GWS respectively, losing yes, but defying expectation enormously by putting in their best performances for many weeks.

North are going to need to call on all of those qualities, and probably rely on Adelaide not being at their sharpest after the break, if they’re to salute. The Crows have won three of their four post-bye games in the last four years, so they don’t appear to suffer.

Adelaide have won ten of their last 11 matches at Adelaide Oval, a lot of them by big margins, and they’ve kicked 100 points or more in eight of them. North are yet to win there, having played the Crows twice for losses of 77 and 36 points.

The Roos should put up a fight, and a victory against the odds won’t surprise. They can easily be in the game for a long way, but the smart money has to be on Adelaide in the vicinity of 25-30 points, and I’ll go with the Crows to get up 115-86.

That’s my Thursday night forecast. What’s yours?